3 resultados para model selection in binary regression
em Universidade Complutense de Madrid
Resumo:
Aims. We present a detailed study of the two Sun-like stars KIC 7985370 and KIC 7765135, to determine their activity level, spot distribution, and differential rotation. Both stars were previously discovered by us to be young stars and were observed by the NASA Kepler mission. Methods. The fundamental stellar parameters (vsini, spectral type, T_eff, log g, and [Fe/H]) were derived from optical spectroscopy by comparison with both standard-star and synthetic spectra. The spectra of the targets allowed us to study the chromospheric activity based on the emission in the core of hydrogen Hα and Ca ii infrared triplet (IRT) lines, which was revealed by the subtraction of inactive templates. The high-precision Kepler photometric data spanning over 229 days were then fitted with a robust spot model. Model selection and parameter estimation were performed in a Bayesian manner, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Results. We find that both stars are Sun-like (of G1.5 V spectral type) and have an age of about 100–200 Myr, based on their lithium content and kinematics. Their youth is confirmed by their high level of chromospheric activity, which is comparable to that displayed by the early G-type stars in the Pleiades cluster. The Balmer decrement and flux ratio of their Ca ii-IRT lines suggest that the formation of the core of these lines occurs mainly in optically thick regions that are analogous to solar plages. The spot model applied to the Kepler photometry requires at least seven persistent spots in the case of KIC 7985370 and nine spots in the case of KIC 7765135 to provide a satisfactory fit to the data. The assumption of the longevity of the star spots, whose area is allowed to evolve with time, is at the heart of our spot-modelling approach. On both stars, the surface differential rotation is Sun-like, with the high-latitude spots rotating slower than the low-latitude ones. We found, for both stars, a rather high value of the equator-to-pole differential rotation (dΩ ≈ 0.18 rad d^-1), which disagrees with the predictions of some mean-field models of differential rotation for rapidly rotating stars. Our results agree instead with previous works on solar-type stars and other models that predict a higher latitudinal shear, increasing with equatorial angular velocity, that can vary during the magnetic cycle.
Resumo:
Salmonella is distributed worldwide and is a pathogen of economic and public health importance. As a multi-host pathogen with a long environmental persistence, it is a suitable model for the study of wildlife-livestock interactions. In this work, we aim to explore the spill-over of Salmonella between free-ranging wild boar and livestock in a protected natural area in NE Spain and the presence of antimicrobial resistance. Salmonella prevalence, serotypes and diversity were compared between wild boars, sympatric cattle and wild boars from cattle-free areas. The effect of age, sex, cattle presence and cattle herd size on Salmonella probability of infection in wild boars was explored by means of Generalized Linear Models and a model selection based on the Akaike's Information Criterion. Prevalence was higher in wild boars co-habiting with cattle (35.67%, CI 95% 28.19-43.70) than in wild boar from cattle-free areas (17.54%, CI 95% 8.74-29.91). Probability of a wild boar being a Salmonella carrier increased with cattle herd size but decreased with the host age. Serotypes Meleagridis, Anatum and Othmarschen were isolated concurrently from cattle and sympatric wild boars. Apart from serotypes shared with cattle, wild boars appear to have their own serotypes, which are also found in wild boars from cattle-free areas (Enteritidis, Mikawasima, 4:b:- and 35:r:z35). Serotype richness (diversity) was higher in wild boars co-habiting with cattle, but evenness was not altered by the introduction of serotypes from cattle. The finding of a S. Mbandaka strain resistant to sulfamethoxazole, streptomycin and chloramphenicol and a S. Enteritidis strain resistant to ciprofloxacin and nalidixic acid in wild boars is cause for public health concern.
Resumo:
We have studied numerically the effect of quenched site dilution on a weak first-order phase transition in three dimensions. We have simulated the site diluted three-states Potts model studying in detail the secondorder region of its phase diagram. We have found that the n exponent is compatible with the one of the three-dimensional diluted Ising model, whereas the h exponent is definitely different.