Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Utility of a panviral microarray for detection of swine respiratory viruses in clinical samples

Several factors have recently converged, elevating the need for highly parallel diagnostic platforms that have the ability to detect many known, novel, and emerging pathogenic agents simultaneously. Panviral DNA microarrays represent the most robust approach for massively parallel viral surveillance and detection. The Virochip is a panviral DNA microarray that is capable of detecting all known viruses, as well as novel viruses related to known viral families, in a single assay and has been used to successfully identify known and novel viral agents in clinical human specimens. However, the usefulness and the sensitivity of the Virochip platform have not been tested on a set of clinical veterinary specimens with the high degree of genetic variance that is frequently observed with swine virus field isolates. In this report, we investigate the utility and sensitivity of the Virochip to positively detect swine viruses in both cell culture-derived samples and clinical swine samples. The Virochip successfully detected porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) in serum containing 6.10 × 10(2) viral copies per microliter and influenza A virus in lung lavage fluid containing 2.08 × 10(6) viral copies per microliter. The Virochip also successfully detected porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) in serum containing 2.50 × 10(8) viral copies per microliter and porcine respiratory coronavirus (PRCV) in turbinate tissue homogenate. Collectively, the data in this report demonstrate that the Virochip can successfully detect pathogenic viruses frequently found in swine in a variety of solid and liquid specimens, such as turbinate tissue homogenate and lung lavage fluid, as well as antemortem samples, such as serum.