On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: The Spanish PwC Survey.

We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectations formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilising expectations in the short-run and destabilising expectations in the long- run and that the expectation formation process is closer to fundamentalists than chartists.

Real exchange rate volatility, financial crises and nominal exchange regimes

This paper examines the sources of real exchange rate (RER) volatility in eighty countries around the world, during the period 1970 to 2011. Our main goal is to explore the role of nominal exchange rate regimes and financial crises in explaining the RER volatility. To that end, we employ two complementary procedures that consist in detecting structural breaks in the RER series and decomposing volatility into its permanent and transitory components. The results confirm that exchange rate volatility does increase with the global financial crises and detect the existence of an inverse relationship between the degree of flexibility in the exchange rate regime and RER volatility using a de facto exchange rate classification.

X-ray absorption study of the ferromagnetic Cu moment at the YBa_(2)Cu_(3)O_(7)/La_(2/3)Ca_(1/3)MnO_(3) interface and variation of its exchange interaction with the Mn moment

With x-ray absorption spectroscopy and polarized neutron reflectometry we studied how the magnetic proximity effect at the interface between the cuprate high-TC superconductor YBa_(2)Cu_(3)O_(7) (YBCO) and the ferromagnet La_(2/3)Ca_(1/3)MnO_(3) (LCMO) is related to the electronic and magnetic properties of the LCMO layers. In particular, we explored how the magnitude of the ferromagnetic Cu moment on the YBCO side depends on the strength of the antiferromagnetic (AF) exchange coupling with the Mn moment on the LCMO side. We found that the Cu moment remains sizable if the AF coupling with the Mn moments is strongly reduced or even entirely suppressed. The ferromagnetic order of the Cu moments thus seems to be intrinsic to the interfacial CuO_(2) planes and related to a weakly ferromagnetic intraplanar exchange interaction. The latter is discussed in terms of the partial occupation of the Cu 3d_(3z^(2)−r^(2)) orbitals, which occurs in the context of the so-called orbital reconstruction of the interfacial Cu ions.