A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

The atmospheric seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic region is dominated by meridional movements of the circulation systems: from the tropics, where the West African Monsoon and extreme tropical weather events take place, to the extratropics, where the circulation is dominated by seasonal changes in the jetstream and extratropical cyclones. Climate variability over the North Atlantic is controlled by various mechanisms. Atmospheric internal variability plays a crucial role in the mid-latitudes. However, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still the main source of predictability in this region situated far away from the Pacific. Although the ENSO influence over tropical and extra-tropical areas is related to different physical mechanisms, in both regions this teleconnection seems to be non-stationary in time and modulated by multidecadal changes of the mean flow. Nowadays, long observational records (greater than 100 years) and modeling projects (e.g., CMIP) permit detecting non-stationarities in the influence of ENSO over the Atlantic basin, and further analyzing its potential mechanisms. The present article reviews the ENSO influence over the Atlantic region, paying special attention to the stability of this teleconnection over time and the possible modulators. Evidence is given that the ENSO–Atlantic teleconnection is weak over the North Atlantic. In this regard, the multidecadal ocean variability seems to modulate the presence of teleconnections, which can lead to important impacts of ENSO and to open windows of opportunity for seasonal predictability.

Documentary sources to investigate multidecadal variability of droughts

Droughts are probably the natural hazard with the highest socioeconomic impact. Simultaneously, they are a very complex phenomenon; they are triggered by a diversity of physical factors and occur at a variety of time scales. Consequently, the instrumental record currently available is too short and the characterization of its multidecadal variability requires the use of natural proxies (tree rings, sedimentary records) or documentary sources. In this paper we analyse three documentary sources with potential to analyse the long-term variability of droughts: chapter acts, logbooks and chronicles. The chapter acts recorded discussions and decisions made during the assemblies of the local authorities and provide continuous and direct evidence on drought impacts. They are especially useful to study droughts between the 15th and the 19th centuries in Europe and the 17th to 18th in the former colonies. Logbooks recorded the meteorological conditions and the incidents occurred during navigation. They provide indirect information through the circulation indices that can be very helpful to understand the mechanisms and teleconnections associated to droughts. Finally, the chronicles are historiographical documents describing political and social events. They are secondary sources and the references to climatic events are discontinuous, thus their analysis must be extremely careful, but they are especially useful to study specific drought events especially prior to 15th century when no other sources are available.