Bayesian adaptive estimation of arbitrary points on a psychometric function

Bayesian adaptive methods have been extensively used in psychophysics to estimate the point at which performance on a task attains arbitrary percentage levels, although the statistical properties of these estimators have never been assessed. We used simulation techniques to determine the small-sample properties of Bayesian estimators of arbitrary performance points, specifically addressing the issues of bias and precision as a function of the target percentage level. The study covered three major types of psychophysical task (yes-no detection, 2AFC discrimination and 2AFC detection) and explored the entire range of target performance levels allowed for by each task. Other factors included in the study were the form and parameters of the actual psychometric function Psi, the form and parameters of the model function M assumed in the Bayesian method, and the location of Psi within the parameter space. Our results indicate that Bayesian adaptive methods render unbiased estimators of any arbitrary point on psi only when M=Psi, and otherwise they yield bias whose magnitude can be considerable as the target level moves away from the midpoint of the range of Psi. The standard error of the estimator also increases as the target level approaches extreme values whether or not M=Psi. Contrary to widespread belief, neither the performance level at which bias is null nor that at which standard error is minimal can be predicted by the sweat factor. A closed-form expression nevertheless gives a reasonable fit to data describing the dependence of standard error on number of trials and target level, which allows determination of the number of trials that must be administered to obtain estimates with prescribed precision.

Practical engineering of hard spin-glass instances

Recent technological developments in the field of experimental quantum annealing have made prototypical annealing optimizers with hundreds of qubits commercially available. The experimental demonstration of a quantum speedup for optimization problems has since then become a coveted, albeit elusive goal. Recent studies have shown that the so far inconclusive results, regarding a quantum enhancement, may have been partly due to the benchmark problems used being unsuitable. In particular, these problems had inherently too simple a structure, allowing for both traditional resources and quantum annealers to solve them with no special efforts. The need therefore has arisen for the generation of harder benchmarks which would hopefully possess the discriminative power to separate classical scaling of performance with size from quantum. We introduce here a practical technique for the engineering of extremely hard spin-glass Ising-type problem instances that does not require "cherry picking" from large ensembles of randomly generated instances. We accomplish this by treating the generation of hard optimization problems itself as an optimization problem, for which we offer a heuristic algorithm that solves it. We demonstrate the genuine thermal hardness of our generated instances by examining them thermodynamically and analyzing their energy landscapes, as well as by testing the performance of various state-of-the-art algorithms on them. We argue that a proper characterization of the generated instances offers a practical, efficient way to properly benchmark experimental quantum annealers, as well as any other optimization algorithm.