The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere

Solar variability represents a source of uncertainty in the future forcings used in climate model simulations. Current knowledge indicates that a descent of solar activity into an extended minimum state is a possible scenario. With aid of experiments from a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we investigate the impact of a future solar minimum on Northern Hemisphere climate change projections. This scenario is constructed from recent 11 year solar-cycle minima of the solar spectral irradiance, and is therefore more conservative than the 'grand' minima employed in some previous modeling studies. Despite the small reduction in total solar irradiance (0.36 W m^-2), relatively large responses emerge in the winter Northern Hemisphere, with a reduction in regional-scale projected warming by up to 40%. To identify the origin of the enhanced regional signals, we assess the role of the different mechanisms by performing additional experiments forced only by irradiance changes at different wavelengths of the solar spectrum. We find that a reduction in visible irradiance drives changes in the stationary wave pattern of the North Pacific and sea-ice cover. A decrease in UV irradiance leads to smaller surface signals, although its regional effects are not negligible. These results point to a distinct but additive role of UV and visible irradiance in the Earth's climate, and stress the need to account for solar forcing as a source of uncertainty in regional scale projections.

The impact of the air-fluorescence yield on the reconstructed shower parameters of ultra-high energy cosmic rays.

An accurate knowledge of the fluorescence yield and its dependence on atmospheric properties such as pressure, temperature or humidity is essential to obtain a reliable measurement of the primary energy of cosmic rays in experiments using the fluorescence technique. In this work, several sets of fluorescence yield data (i.e. absolute value and quenching parameters) are described and compared. A simple procedure to study the effect of the assumed fluorescence yield on the reconstructed shower parameters (energy and shower maximum depth) as a function of the primary features has been developed. As an application, the effect of water vapor and temperature dependence of the collisional cross section on the fluorescence yield and its impact on the reconstruction of primary energy and shower maximum depth has been studied. Published by Elsevier B.V.