Variability of the ocean heat content during the last millennium - an assessment with the ECHO-g Model

Studies addressing climate variability during the last millennium generally focus on variables with a direct influence on climate variability, like the fast thermal response to varying radiative forcing, or the large-scale changes in atmospheric dynamics (e. g. North Atlantic Oscillation). The ocean responds to these variations by slowly integrating in depth the upper heat flux changes, thus producing a delayed influence on ocean heat content (OHC) that can later impact low frequency SST (sea surface temperature) variability through reemergence processes. In this study, both the externally and internally driven variations of the OHC during the last millennium are investigated using a set of fully coupled simulations with the ECHO-G (coupled climate model ECHAMA4 and ocean model HOPE-G) atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). When compared to observations for the last 55 yr, the model tends to overestimate the global trends and underestimate the decadal OHC variability. Extending the analysis back to the last one thousand years, the main impact of the radiative forcing is an OHC increase at high latitudes, explained to some extent by a reduction in cloud cover and the subsequent increase of short-wave radiation at the surface. This OHC response is dominated by the effect of volcanism in the preindustrial era, and by the fast increase of GHGs during the last 150 yr. Likewise, salient impacts from internal climate variability are observed at regional scales. For instance, upper temperature in the equatorial Pacific is controlled by ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) variability from interannual to multidecadal timescales. Also, both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulate intermittently the interdecadal OHC variability in the North Pacific and Mid Atlantic, respectively. The NAO, through its influence on North Atlantic surface heat fluxes and convection, also plays an important role on the OHC at multiple timescales, leading first to a cooling in the Labrador and Irminger seas, and later on to a North Atlantic warming, associated with a delayed impact on the AMO.

Climate simulation for 125 kyr BP with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

The ECHAM-1 T21/LSG coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) is used to simulate climatic conditions at the last interglacial maximum (Eemian. 125 kyr BP). The results reflect thc expected surface temperature changes (with respect to the control run) due to the amplification (reduction) of the seasonal cycle of insolation in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. A number of simulated features agree with previous results from atmospheric GCM simulations e.g. intensified summer southwest monsoons) except in the Northern Hemisphere poleward of 30 degrees N. where dynamical feedback, in the North Atlantic and North Pacific increase zonal temperatures about 1 degrees C above what would be predicted from simple energy balance considerations. As this is the same area where most of the terrestrial geological data originate, this result suggests that previous estimates of Eemian global average temperature might have been biased by sample distribution. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the estimated global temperature increase of only 0.3 degrees C greater than the control run ha, been previously shown to be consistent a with CLIMAP sea surface temperature estimates. Although the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon is intensified. globally averaged precipitation over land is within about 1% of the present, contravening some geological inferences bur not the deep-sea delta(13)C estimates of terrestrial carbon storage changes. Winter circulation changes in the northern Arabian Sea. driven by strong cooling on land, are as large as summer circulation changes that are the usual focus of interest, suggesting that interpreting variations in the Arabian Sea. sedimentary record solely in terms of the summer monsoon response could sometimes lead to errors. A small monsoonal response over northern South America suggests that interglacial paleotrends in this region were not just due to El Nino variations.

Temperatures at the last interglacial simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model

The last interglacial (Eemian, 125,000 years ago) has generally been considered the warmest time period in the last 200,000 years and thus sometimes been used as a reference for greenhouse projections. Herein we report results from a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model of the surface temperature response to changes in the radiative forcing at the last interglacial. Although the model generates the expected summer warming in the northern hemisphere, winter cooling of a comparable magnitude occurs over North Africa and tropical Asia. The global annual mean temperature for the Eemian run is 0.3 degrees C cooler than the control run. Validation of simulated sea surface temperatures (SSTs) against reconstructed SSTs supports this conclusion and also the assumption that the flux correction, fitted for the present state, operates satisfactorily for modest perturbations. Our results imply that contrary to conventional expectations, Eemian global temperatures may already have been reached by the mid 20th century.