On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: The Spanish PwC Survey.

We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectations formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilising expectations in the short-run and destabilising expectations in the long- run and that the expectation formation process is closer to fundamentalists than chartists.

Search for first harmonic modulation in the right ascension distribution of cosmic rays detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory

We present the results of searches for dipolar-type anisotropies in different energy ranges above 2.5 x 10(17) eV with the surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory, reporting on both the phase and the amplitude measurements of the first harmonic modulation in the right-ascension distribution. Upper limits on the amplitudes are obtained, which provide the most stringent bounds at present, being below 2% at 99% C.L. for EeV energies. We also compare our results to those of previous experiments as well as with some theoretical expectations. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.