A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

The atmospheric seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic region is dominated by meridional movements of the circulation systems: from the tropics, where the West African Monsoon and extreme tropical weather events take place, to the extratropics, where the circulation is dominated by seasonal changes in the jetstream and extratropical cyclones. Climate variability over the North Atlantic is controlled by various mechanisms. Atmospheric internal variability plays a crucial role in the mid-latitudes. However, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still the main source of predictability in this region situated far away from the Pacific. Although the ENSO influence over tropical and extra-tropical areas is related to different physical mechanisms, in both regions this teleconnection seems to be non-stationary in time and modulated by multidecadal changes of the mean flow. Nowadays, long observational records (greater than 100 years) and modeling projects (e.g., CMIP) permit detecting non-stationarities in the influence of ENSO over the Atlantic basin, and further analyzing its potential mechanisms. The present article reviews the ENSO influence over the Atlantic region, paying special attention to the stability of this teleconnection over time and the possible modulators. Evidence is given that the ENSO–Atlantic teleconnection is weak over the North Atlantic. In this regard, the multidecadal ocean variability seems to modulate the presence of teleconnections, which can lead to important impacts of ENSO and to open windows of opportunity for seasonal predictability.

Finding the set of k-additive dominating measures viewed as a flow problem

n this paper we deal with the problem of obtaining the set of k-additive measures dominating a fuzzy measure. This problem extends the problem of deriving the set of probabilities dominating a fuzzy measure, an important problem appearing in Decision Making and Game Theory. The solution proposed in the paper follows the line developed by Chateauneuf and Jaffray for dominating probabilities and continued by Miranda et al. for dominating k-additive belief functions. Here, we address the general case transforming the problem into a similar one such that the involved set functions have non-negative Möbius transform; this simplifies the problem and allows a result similar to the one developed for belief functions. Although the set obtained is very large, we show that the conditions cannot be sharpened. On the other hand, we also show that it is possible to define a more restrictive subset, providing a more natural extension of the result for probabilities, such that it is possible to derive any k-additive dominating measure from it.