Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Vivir con Chagas en Madrid: estructuras temporales de la vivencia de un grupo de pacientes bolivianos con el diagnóstico y la atención médica a la enfermedad de Chagas en un hospital metropolitano español

How can a chronic disease determine the life of a group of people diagnosed as seropositive away from their home country? And how do we account for that lived experience. Some diseases contemplated a few decades ago as strictly rural or of poor countries, are an urban reality now and are part of the epidemiological setting in wealthy developed countries. That is the case of Chagas disease in Spain. A disease linked for a long time to rural poverty, until migratory movements occurred nationwide from the country side to the city, and recently with international migration have turned pathology into a global public health issue. Chagas disease is a chronic parasitic infection, endemic in all Latin America and can be transmitted by triatomine or “kissing bug” (Triatoma Infestans), which lives and reproduces in straw houses of rural regions. According to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO, 2006), the disease affects approximately eight million people. It is recognized by the WHO as a “neglected tropical disease”...