Asymptotic Theory for Extended Asymmetric Multivariate GARCH Processes

The paper considers various extended asymmetric multivariate conditional volatility models, and derives appropriate regularity conditions and associated asymptotic theory. This enables checking of internal consistency and allows valid statistical inferences to be drawn based on empirical estimation. For this purpose, we use an underlying vector random coefficient autoregressive process, for which we show the equivalent representation for the asymmetric multivariate conditional volatility model, to derive asymptotic theory for the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator. As an extension, we develop a new multivariate asymmetric long memory volatility model, and discuss the associated asymptotic properties.

Volatility Spillover and Multivariate Volatility Impulse Response Analysis of GFC News Events

This paper applies two measures to assess spillovers across markets: the Diebold Yilmaz (2012) Spillover Index and the Hafner and Herwartz (2006) analysis of multivariate GARCH models using volatility impulse response analysis. We use two sets of data, daily realized volatility estimates taken from the Oxford Man RV library, running from the beginning of 2000 to October 2016, for the S&P500 and the FTSE, plus ten years of daily returns series for the New York Stock Exchange Index and the FTSE 100 index, from 3 January 2005 to 31 January 2015. Both data sets capture both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the subsequent European Sovereign Debt Crisis (ESDC). The spillover index captures the transmission of volatility to and from markets, plus net spillovers. The key difference between the measures is that the spillover index captures an average of spillovers over a period, whilst volatility impulse responses (VIRF) have to be calibrated to conditional volatility estimated at a particular point in time. The VIRF provide information about the impact of independent shocks on volatility. In the latter analysis, we explore the impact of three different shocks, the onset of the GFC, which we date as 9 August 2007 (GFC1). It took a year for the financial crisis to come to a head, but it did so on 15 September 2008, (GFC2). The third shock is 9 May 2010. Our modelling includes leverage and asymmetric effects undertaken in the context of a multivariate GARCH model, which are then analysed using both BEKK and diagonal BEKK (DBEKK) models. A key result is that the impact of negative shocks is larger, in terms of the effects on variances and covariances, but shorter in duration, in this case a difference between three and six months.

Multivariate orthogonal polynomials and integrable systems

Multivariate orthogonal polynomials in D real dimensions are considered from the perspective of the Cholesky factorization of a moment matrix. The approach allows for the construction of corresponding multivariate orthogonal polynomials, associated second kind functions, Jacobi type matrices and associated three term relations and also Christoffel-Darboux formulae. The multivariate orthogonal polynomials, their second kind functions and the corresponding Christoffel-Darboux kernels are shown to be quasi-determinants as well as Schur complements of bordered truncations of the moment matrix; quasi-tau functions are introduced. It is proven that the second kind functions are multivariate Cauchy transforms of the multivariate orthogonal polynomials. Discrete and continuous deformations of the measure lead to Toda type integrable hierarchy, being the corresponding flows described through Lax and Zakharov-Shabat equations; bilinear equations are found. Varying size matrix nonlinear partial difference and differential equations of the 2D Toda lattice type are shown to be solved by matrix coefficients of the multivariate orthogonal polynomials. The discrete flows, which are shown to be connected with a Gauss-Borel factorization of the Jacobi type matrices and its quasi-determinants, lead to expressions for the multivariate orthogonal polynomials and their second kind functions in terms of shifted quasi-tau matrices, which generalize to the multidimensional realm, those that relate the Baker and adjoint Baker functions to ratios of Miwa shifted tau-functions in the 1D scenario. In this context, the multivariate extension of the elementary Darboux transformation is given in terms of quasi-determinants of matrices built up by the evaluation, at a poised set of nodes lying in an appropriate hyperplane in R^D, of the multivariate orthogonal polynomials. The multivariate Christoffel formula for the iteration of m elementary Darboux transformations is given as a quasi-determinant. It is shown, using congruences in the space of semi-infinite matrices, that the discrete and continuous flows are intimately connected and determine nonlinear partial difference-differential equations that involve only one site in the integrable lattice behaving as a Kadomstev-Petviashvili type system. Finally, a brief discussion of measures with a particular linear isometry invariance and some of its consequences for the corresponding multivariate polynomials is given. In particular, it is shown that the Toda times that preserve the invariance condition lay in a secant variety of the Veronese variety of the fixed point set of the linear isometry.