Osculation for conic fibrations.

Smooth projective surfaces fibered in conics over a smooth curve are investigated with respect to their k-th osculatory behavior. Due to the bound for the dimension of their osculating spaces they do not differ at all from a general surface for k = 2, while their structure plays a significant role for k >= 3. The dimension of the osculating space at any point is studied taking into account the possible existence of curves of low degree transverse to the fibers, and several examples are discussed to illustrate concretely the various situations arising in this analysis. As an application, a complete description of the osculatory behavior of Castelnuovo surfaces is given. The case k = 3 for del Pezzo surfaces is also discussed, completing the analysis done for k = 2 in a previous paper by the authors (2001). Moreover, for conic fibrations X subset of P-N whose k-th inflectional locus has the expected codimension, a precise description of this locus is provided in terms of Chern classes. In particular, for N = 8, it turns out that either X is hypo-osculating for k = 3, or its third inflectional locus is 1-dimensional

Influence analysis of robust Wald-type tests

We consider a robust version of the classical Wald test statistics for testing simple and composite null hypotheses for general parametric models. These test statistics are based on the minimum density power divergence estimators instead of the maximum likelihood estimators. An extensive study of their robustness properties is given though the influence functions as well as the chi-square inflation factors. It is theoretically established that the level and power of these robust tests are stable against outliers, whereas the classical Wald test breaks down. Some numerical examples confirm the validity of the theoretical results.

On the time to reach a critical number of infections in epidemic models with infective and susceptible immigrants.

In this paper we examine the time T to reach a critical number K0 of infections during an outbreak in an epidemic model with infective and susceptible immigrants. The underlying process X, which was first introduced by Ridler-Rowe (1967), is related to recurrent diseases and it appears to be analytically intractable. We present an approximating model inspired from the use of extreme values, and we derive formulae for the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of T and its moments, which are evaluated by using an iterative procedure. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effects of the contact and removal rates on the expected values of T and the threshold K0, when the initial time instant corresponds to an invasion time. We also study the exact reproduction number Rexact,0 and the population transmission number Rp, which are random versions of the basic reproduction number R0.

The SEIQS stochastic epidemic model with external source of infection

This paper deals with a stochastic epidemic model for computer viruses with latent and quarantine periods, and two sources of infection: internal and external. All sojourn times are considered random variables which are assumed to be independent and exponentially distributed. For this model extinction and hazard times are analyzed, giving results for their Laplace transforms and moments. The transient behavior is considered by studying the number of times that computers are susceptible, exposed, infectious and quarantined during a period of time (0, t] and results for their joint and marginal distributions, moments and cross moments are presented. In order to give light this analysis, some numerical examples are showed.

Stochastic descriptors to study the fate and potential of naive T cell clonotypes in the periphery

The population of naive T cells in the periphery is best described by determining both its T cell receptor diversity, or number of clonotypes, and the sizes of its clonal subsets. In this paper, we make use of a previously introduced mathematical model of naive T cell homeostasis, to study the fate and potential of naive T cell clonotypes in the periphery. This is achieved by the introduction of several new stochastic descriptors for a given naive T cell clonotype, such as its maximum clonal size, the time to reach this maximum, the number of proliferation events required to reach this maximum, the rate of contraction of the clonotype during its way to extinction, as well as the time to a given number of proliferation events. Our results show that two fates can be identified for the dynamics of the clonotype: extinction in the short-term if the clonotype experiences too hostile a peripheral environment, or establishment in the periphery in the long-term. In this second case the probability mass function for the maximum clonal size is bimodal, with one mode near one and the other mode far away from it. Our model also indicates that the fate of a recent thymic emigrant (RTE) during its journey in the periphery has a clear stochastic component, where the probability of extinction cannot be neglected, even in a friendly but competitive environment. On the other hand, a greater deterministic behaviour can be expected in the potential size of the clonotype seeded by the RTE in the long-term, once it escapes extinction.

Mackey topology on locally convex spaces and on locally quasi-convex groups. Similarities and historical remarks

A counterpart of the Mackey–Arens Theorem for the class of locally quasi-convex topological Abelian groups (LQC-groups) was initiated in Chasco et al. (Stud Math 132(3):257–284, 1999). Several authors have been interested in the problems posed there and have done clarifying contributions, although the main question of that source remains open. Some differences between the Mackey Theory for locally convex spaces and for locally quasi-convex groups, stem from the following fact: The supremum of all compatible locally quasi-convex topologies for a topological abelian group G may not coincide with the topology of uniform convergence on the weak quasi-convex compact subsets of the dual groupG∧. Thus, a substantial part of the classical Mackey–Arens Theorem cannot be generalized to LQC-groups. Furthermore, the mentioned fact gives rise to a grading in the property of “being a Mackey group”, as defined and thoroughly studied in Díaz Nieto and Martín-Peinador (Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics 80:119–144, 2014). At present it is not known—and this is the main open question—if the supremum of all the compatible locally quasi-convex topologies on a topological group is in fact a compatible topology. In the present paper we do a sort of historical review on the Mackey Theory, and we compare it in the two settings of locally convex spaces and of locally quasi-convex groups. We point out some general questions which are still open, under the name of Problems.