Freedom from equine infectious anaemia virus infection in Spanish Purebred horses

Introduction: No cases of equine infectious anaemia (EIA) have been reported in Spain since 1983. Factors that could increase the risk of reintroducing equine infectious anaemia virus (EIAV) into Spain include the recent occurrence of the disease in Europe and the absence of compulsory serological testing before importation into Spain. Aims and objectives: Given the importance of the Spanish Purebred (SP) horse breeding industry in Spain, the aim of this cross-sectional study was to provide evidence of freedom from EIAV in SP stud farms in Central Spain. Materials and methods: Serum samples from 555 SP horses, collected between September 2011 and November 2013, were tested using a commercially available EIAV ELISA with a published sensitivity of 100 per cent. Results: All 555 samples were negative for antibody to EIAV, providing evidence of a true EIAV seroprevalence between 0 per cent and 0.53 per cent (95% CIs of the sensitivity and specificity of the ELISA technique used Q10 were 100 per cent and 99.3 per cent, respectively) among the SP breeding population in Central Spain. Conclusions: These findings should serve to increase confidence when exporting SP horses to other countries.

Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.