Exposure to Chinese imports andlocal labor market outcomes. An Analysis for Spanish provinces

In the period 1999-2007 Spanish imports from China multiplied by six, making that Asian country the fourth largest supplier to the Spanish economy. In this paper, we analyse whether this massive increase in imports impacted on the labour markets of Spanish provinces to differing degrees, due to differences in their initial productive specialization. Our results show that Spanish provinces with a higher exposure to Chinese imports experienced larger drops in manufacturing employment as a share of the working-age population. However, this reduction was compensated for by increases in non-manufacturing employment.

Import competition from China and unemployment. An analysis using Spanish workers’micro-data.

In the period 1997-2011, import competition from China multiplied by five in the Spanish manufacturing sector. In this paper we analyze whether this severe increase in import competition from China is associated with a higher probability of becoming unemployed in the Spanish manufacturing sector. Linking industry-level data on imports with the working histories of 141,000 manufacturing workers, we show that import competition from China is positively associated with the probability of becoming unemployed. In particular, a standard deviation increase in import competition from China raises the probability of becoming unemployed between 0.8 and 3.5 percentage points, which represents between a 9% and a 44% increase relative to the unconditional probability of becoming unemployed. In contrast, we do not find any effect of import competition from China on manufacturing wages. Also, our estimations show that there is weak evidence of a positive association between a higher import competition from China and the probability of switching to an employment outside the manufacturing sector.

Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union

BACKGROUND The recent occurrence and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe is perceived as a serious risk for the pig industry in the European Union (EU). In order to estimate the potential risk of ASF virus (ASFV) entering the EU, several pathways of introduction were previously assessed separately. The present work aimed to integrate five of these assessments (legal imports of pigs, legal imports of products, illegal imports of products, fomites associated with transport and wild boar movements) into a modular tool that facilitates the visualization and comprehension of the relative risk of ASFV introduction into the EU by each analyzed pathway. RESULTS The framework's results indicate that 48% of EU countries are at relatively high risk (risk score 4 or 5 out of 5) for ASFV entry for at least one analyzed pathway. Four of these countries obtained the maximum risk score for one pathway: Bulgaria for legally imported products during the high risk period (HRP); Finland for wild boar; Slovenia and Sweden for legally imported pigs during the HRP. Distribution of risk considerably differed from one pathway to another; for some pathways, the risk was concentrated in a few countries (e.g., transport fomites), whereas other pathways incurred a high risk for 4 or 5 countries (legal pigs, illegal imports and wild boar). CONCLUSIONS The modular framework, developed to estimate the risk of ASFV entry into the EU, is available in a public domain, and is a transparent, easy-to-interpret tool that can be updated and adapted if required. The model's results determine the EU countries at higher risk for each ASFV introduction route, and provide a useful basis to develop a global coordinated program to improve ASFV prevention in the EU.

Identification of Hotspots in the European Union for the Introduction of Four Zoonotic Arboviroses by Live Animal Trade

Live animal trade is considered a major mode of introduction of viruses from enzootic foci into disease-free areas. Due to societal and behavioural changes, some wild animal species may nowadays be considered as pet species. The species diversity of animals involved in international trade is thus increasing. This could benefit pathogens that have a broad host range such as arboviruses. The objective of this study was to analyze the risk posed by live animal imports for the introduction, in the European Union (EU), of four arboviruses that affect human and horses: Eastern and Western equine encephalomyelitis, Venezuelan equine encephalitis and Japanese encephalitis. Importation data for a five-years period (2005-2009, extracted from the EU TRACES database), environmental data (used as a proxy for the presence of vectors) and horses and human population density data (impacting the occurrence of clinical cases) were combined to derive spatially explicit risk indicators for virus introduction and for the potential consequences of such introductions. Results showed the existence of hotspots where the introduction risk was the highest in Belgium, in the Netherlands and in the north of Italy. This risk was higher for Eastern equine encephalomyelitis (EEE) than for the three other diseases. It was mainly attributed to exotic pet species such as rodents, reptiles or cage birds, imported in small-sized containments from a wide variety of geographic origins. The increasing species and origin diversity of these animals may have in the future a strong impact on the risk of introduction of arboviruses in the EU.

Introduction of African Swine Fever into the European Union through Illegal Importation of Pork and Pork Products

Transboundary animal diseases can have very severe socio-economic impacts when introduced into new regions. The history of disease incursions into the European Union suggests that initial outbreaks were often initiated by illegal importation of meat and derived products. The European Union would benefit from decision-support tools to evaluate the risk of disease introduction caused by illegal imports in order to inform its surveillance strategy. However, due to the difficulty in quantifying illegal movements of animal products, very few studies of this type have been conducted. Using African swine fever as an example, this work presents a novel risk assessment framework for disease introduction into the European Union through illegal importation of meat and products. It uses a semi-quantitative approach based on factors that likely influence the likelihood of release of contaminated smuggled meat and products, and subsequent exposure of the susceptible population. The results suggest that the European Union is at non-negligible risk of African swine fever.