Variability of the ocean heat content during the last millennium - an assessment with the ECHO-g Model

Studies addressing climate variability during the last millennium generally focus on variables with a direct influence on climate variability, like the fast thermal response to varying radiative forcing, or the large-scale changes in atmospheric dynamics (e. g. North Atlantic Oscillation). The ocean responds to these variations by slowly integrating in depth the upper heat flux changes, thus producing a delayed influence on ocean heat content (OHC) that can later impact low frequency SST (sea surface temperature) variability through reemergence processes. In this study, both the externally and internally driven variations of the OHC during the last millennium are investigated using a set of fully coupled simulations with the ECHO-G (coupled climate model ECHAMA4 and ocean model HOPE-G) atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). When compared to observations for the last 55 yr, the model tends to overestimate the global trends and underestimate the decadal OHC variability. Extending the analysis back to the last one thousand years, the main impact of the radiative forcing is an OHC increase at high latitudes, explained to some extent by a reduction in cloud cover and the subsequent increase of short-wave radiation at the surface. This OHC response is dominated by the effect of volcanism in the preindustrial era, and by the fast increase of GHGs during the last 150 yr. Likewise, salient impacts from internal climate variability are observed at regional scales. For instance, upper temperature in the equatorial Pacific is controlled by ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) variability from interannual to multidecadal timescales. Also, both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulate intermittently the interdecadal OHC variability in the North Pacific and Mid Atlantic, respectively. The NAO, through its influence on North Atlantic surface heat fluxes and convection, also plays an important role on the OHC at multiple timescales, leading first to a cooling in the Labrador and Irminger seas, and later on to a North Atlantic warming, associated with a delayed impact on the AMO.

A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration

As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, integrations with a common design have been undertaken with eleven different climate models to compare the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation ( THC) to time-dependent climate change caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over 140 years, during which the CO2 concentration quadruples, the circulation strength declines gradually in all models, by between 10 and 50%. No model shows a rapid or complete collapse, despite the fairly rapid increase and high final concentration of CO2. The models having the strongest overturning in the control climate tend to show the largest THC reductions. In all models, the THC weakening is caused more by changes in surface heat flux than by changes in surface water flux. No model shows a cooling anywhere, because the greenhouse warming is dominant.

Measurement of the cosmic ray energy spectrum using hybrid events of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The energy spectrum of ultra-high energy cosmic rays above 10(18)eV is measured using the hybrid events collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory between November 2005 and September 2010. The large exposure of the Observatory allows the measurement of the main features of the energy spectrum with high statistics. Full Monte Carlo simulations of the extensive air showers (based on the CORSIKA code) and of the hybrid detector response are adopted here as an independent cross check of the standard analysis (Phys. Lett. B 685, 239 (2010)). The dependence on mass composition and other systematic uncertainties are discussed in detail and, in the full Monte Carlo approach, a region of confidence for flux measurements is defined when all the uncertainties are taken into account. An update is also reported of the energy spectrum obtained by combining the hybrid spectrum and that measured using the surface detector array.

Measurement of the energy spectrum of cosmic rays above 10(18) eV using the Pierre Auger Observatory

We report a measurement of the flux of cosmic rays with unprecedented precision and Statistics using the Pierre Auger Observatory Based on fluorescence observations in coincidence with at least one Surface detector we derive a spectrum for energies above 10(18) eV We also update the previously published energy spectrum obtained with the surface detector array The two spectra are combined addressing the systematic uncertainties and, in particular. the influence of the energy resolution on the spectral shape The spectrum can be described by a broken power law E-gamma with index gamma = 3 3 below the ankle which is measured at log(10)(E-ankle/eV) = 18 6 Above the ankle the spectrum is described by a power law with index 2 6 followed by a flux suppression, above about log(10)(E/eV) = 19 5, detected with high statistical significance (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved