Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union

BACKGROUND The recent occurrence and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe is perceived as a serious risk for the pig industry in the European Union (EU). In order to estimate the potential risk of ASF virus (ASFV) entering the EU, several pathways of introduction were previously assessed separately. The present work aimed to integrate five of these assessments (legal imports of pigs, legal imports of products, illegal imports of products, fomites associated with transport and wild boar movements) into a modular tool that facilitates the visualization and comprehension of the relative risk of ASFV introduction into the EU by each analyzed pathway. RESULTS The framework's results indicate that 48% of EU countries are at relatively high risk (risk score 4 or 5 out of 5) for ASFV entry for at least one analyzed pathway. Four of these countries obtained the maximum risk score for one pathway: Bulgaria for legally imported products during the high risk period (HRP); Finland for wild boar; Slovenia and Sweden for legally imported pigs during the HRP. Distribution of risk considerably differed from one pathway to another; for some pathways, the risk was concentrated in a few countries (e.g., transport fomites), whereas other pathways incurred a high risk for 4 or 5 countries (legal pigs, illegal imports and wild boar). CONCLUSIONS The modular framework, developed to estimate the risk of ASFV entry into the EU, is available in a public domain, and is a transparent, easy-to-interpret tool that can be updated and adapted if required. The model's results determine the EU countries at higher risk for each ASFV introduction route, and provide a useful basis to develop a global coordinated program to improve ASFV prevention in the EU.

Essays on internationalization in the context of heterogeneous firms

The significant increase in global trade flows in last decades has been one of the main features of the globalization process that started in the 1950s. In general, the main factors behind this increase were linked to (i) the significant reductions of trade costs and technical barriers; (ii) the improvements in transport infrastructure and telecommunications; (iii) the progress of the international financial system and the increasing legal certainty; and (iv) the development of a corporate culture that promotes the internationalization of firms as a strategic tool in order to survive and to grow. The remarkable increase of trade openness has also been observed in the Spanish economy. In this regard, it is clear that the entry into force of the Treaty of Accession of Spain to the European Economic Community (now the European Union) in 1986 played a main role in this dramatic increase. In addition, and because of the deep depression of domestic demand caused by the global financial and economic crisis that started in 2008, the external trade has become a key driver in the economic recovery of the Spanish economy...