On the time to reach a critical number of infections in epidemic models with infective and susceptible immigrants.

In this paper we examine the time T to reach a critical number K0 of infections during an outbreak in an epidemic model with infective and susceptible immigrants. The underlying process X, which was first introduced by Ridler-Rowe (1967), is related to recurrent diseases and it appears to be analytically intractable. We present an approximating model inspired from the use of extreme values, and we derive formulae for the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of T and its moments, which are evaluated by using an iterative procedure. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effects of the contact and removal rates on the expected values of T and the threshold K0, when the initial time instant corresponds to an invasion time. We also study the exact reproduction number Rexact,0 and the population transmission number Rp, which are random versions of the basic reproduction number R0.

Update on the correlation of the highest energy cosmic rays with nearby extragalactic matter

Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory through 31 August 2007 showed evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays above the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuz'min energy threshold, 6 x 10(19) eV. The anisotropy was measured by the fraction of arrival directions that are less than 3.1 degrees from the position of an active galactic nucleus within 75 Mpc (using the Veron-Cetty and Veron 12th catalog). An updated measurement of this fraction is reported here using the arrival directions of cosmic rays recorded above the same energy threshold through 31 December 2009. The number of arrival directions has increased from 27 to 69, allowing a more precise measurement. The correlating fraction is (38(-6)(+7))%, compared with 21% expected for isotropic cosmic rays. This is down from the early estimate of (69-(+11)(13))%. The enlarged set of arrival directions is examined also in relation to other populations of nearby extragalactic objects: galaxies in the 2 Microns All Sky Survey and active galactic nuclei detected in hard X-rays by the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. A celestial region around the position of the radiogalaxy Cen A has the largest excess of arrival directions relative to isotropic expectations. The 2-point autocorrelation function is shown for the enlarged set of arrival directions and compared to the isotropic expectation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.