Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Salt springs from Romania exploited during early archaeological times : a new candidate for World Heritage

Our approach emphasizes on the importance of the first forms of salt springs exploitation meant to obtain recrystallized salt for the development of prehistoric human communities within the continental inlands of Europe. Although it does not compare with the monumental dimension of World Heritage, the exploitation of some salt springs in Eastern Romania goes back around 8 millennia; they may be the oldest such exploitations in the world, as proven by 14C calibrated data. What differentiates Romanian salt springs from other famous similar areas in Europe is the continuity of exploitation and utilization of natural brine. Actually, these resilient behaviours explain the creation of a whole and complex universe of salt, which also represents a unique point of reference within the intangible World Heritage. It is through this association in variable proportions between tangible (non-monumental) and intangible that these salt springs comprising the oldest traces of salt exploitation can be considered elements of World Heritage. Today, important personalities in the fields of archaeology, anthropology and history posit that salt is a major reference for the development of the entire umanity. Obviously, the breakthrough of this idea requires awareness efforts targeting, on one hand, local communities in those areas wand, on the other, national and international scientific and cultural environments concerned with the World Heritage. In this context, a proper motivation is the fact that the last two decades have witnessed an intensification of research on salt, which turned this topic one of the major themes within European archaeology and ethno-archaeology. In terms of local community awareness concerning the importance of salt springs in the economic development of a (micro) area over time, it is worth underlining mostly the specialists’ efforts of presenting this topic in the media. Moreover, the impact of a recent initiative of the two museums in the area (Piatra Neamț and Târgu Neamț)—establishing distinct sections that represent, by using museum-inspired means, both archaeological vestiges and traditional practices of natural brine exploitation and utilization—will prove its extent in time. Certain local authorities and private entrepreneurs have pinpointed that valorising tourist areas comprising the oldest traces of salt exploitation in Romania is an imminent issue. The greatest challenge is finding a balance between the civilization improvements (upgraded access roads, upgrading operating areas, etc.) and thep rotection of still-alive traditional practices of salt exploitation and use, within rural areas. Certain local authorities and private entrepreneurs have pinpointed that valorising tourist areas comprising the oldest traces of salt exploitation in Romania will become, sooner or later, an imminent issue. The greatest challenge is finding a balance between the civilization improvements (upgraded access roads, upgrading operating areas, etc.) and the protection of still-alive traditional practices of salt exploitation and use, within rural areas.