Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

African swine fever virus transmission cycles in Central Europe: evaluation of wild boar-soft tick contacts through detection of antibodies against Ornithodoros erraticus saliva antigen.

BACKGROUND African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most complex viral diseases affecting both domestic and wild pigs. It is caused by ASF virus (ASFV), the only DNA virus which can be efficiently transmitted by an arthropod vector, soft ticks of the genus Ornithodoros. These ticks can be part of ASFV-transmission cycles, and in Europe, O. erraticus was shown to be responsible for long-term maintenance of ASFV in Spain and Portugal. In 2014, the disease has been reintroduced into the European Union, affecting domestic pigs and, importantly, also the Eurasian wild boar population. In a first attempt to assess the risk of a tick-wild boar transmission cycle in Central Europe that would further complicate eradication of the disease, over 700 pre-existing serum samples from wild boar hunted in four representative German Federal States were investigated for the presence of antibodies directed against salivary antigen of Ornithodoros erraticus ticks using an indirect ELISA format. RESULTS Out of these samples, 16 reacted with moderate to high optical densities that could be indicative of tick bites in sampled wild boar. However, these samples did not show a spatial clustering (they were collected from distant geographical regions) and were of bad quality (hemolysis/impurities). Furthermore, all positive samples came from areas with suboptimal climate for soft ticks. For this reason, false positive reactions are likely. CONCLUSION In conclusion, the study did not provide stringent evidence for soft tick-wild boar contact in the investigated German Federal States and thus, a relevant involvement in the epidemiology of ASF in German wild boar is unlikely. This fact would facilitate the eradication of ASF in the area, although other complex relations (wild boar biology and interactions with domestic pigs) need to be considered.

A novel antigen capture ELISA for the specific detection of IgG antibodies to elephant endotheliotropic herpes virus

BACKGROUND Elephants are classified as critically endangered animals by the International Union for Conservation of Species (IUCN). Elephant endotheliotropic herpesvirus (EEHV) poses a large threat to breeding programs of captive Asian elephants by causing fatal haemorrhagic disease. EEHV infection is detected by PCR in samples from both clinically ill and asymptomatic elephants with an active infection, whereas latent carriers can be distinguished exclusively via serological assays. To date, identification of latent carriers has been challenging, since there are no serological assays capable of detecting seropositive elephants. RESULTS Here we describe a novel ELISA that specifically detects EEHV antibodies circulating in Asian elephant plasma/serum. Approximately 80 % of PCR positive elephants display EEHV-specific antibodies. Monitoring three Asian elephant herds from European zoos revealed that the serostatus of elephants within a herd varied from non-detectable to high titers. The antibody titers showed typical herpes-like rise-and-fall patterns in time which occur in all seropositive animals in the herd more or less simultaneously. CONCLUSIONS This study shows that the developed ELISA is suitable to detect antibodies specific to EEHV. It allows study of EEHV seroprevalence in Asian elephants. Results confirm that EEHV prevalence among Asian elephants (whether captive-born or wild-caught) is high.

Natural Bagaza virus infection in game birds in southern Spain

In late summer 2010 a mosquito born flavivirus not previously reported in Europe called Bagaza virus (BAGV) caused high mortality in red-legged partridges (Alectoris rufa) and ring-necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus). We studied clinical findings, lesions and viral antigen distribution in naturally BAGV infected game birds in order to understand the apparently higher impact on red-legged partridges. The disease induced neurologic signs in the two galliform species and, to a lesser extent, in common wood pigeons (Columba palumbus). In red-legged partridges infection by BAGV caused severe haemosiderosis in the liver and spleen that was absent in pheasants and less evident in common wood pigeons. Also, BAGV antigen was present in vascular endothelium in multiple organs in red-legged partridges, and in the spleen in common wood pigeons, while in ring-necked pheasants it was only detected in neurons and glial cells in the brain. These findings indicate tropism of BAGV for endothelial cells and a severe haemolytic process in red-legged partridges in addition to the central nervous lesions that were found in all three species.

Characterization of protection afforded by a bivalent virus-like particle vaccine against bluetongue virus serotypes 1 and 4 in sheep

BACKGROUND Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an economically important, arthropod borne, emerging pathogen in Europe, causing disease mainly in sheep and cattle. Routine vaccination for bluetongue would require the ability to distinguish between vaccinated and infected individuals (DIVA). Current vaccines are effective but are not DIVA. Virus-like particles (VLPs) are highly immunogenic structural mimics of virus particles, that only contain a subset of the proteins present in a natural infection. VLPs therefore offer the potential for the development of DIVA compatible bluetongue vaccines. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Merino sheep were vaccinated with either monovalent BTV-1 VLPs or a bivalent mixture of BTV-1 VLPs and BTV-4 VLPs, and challenged with virulent BTV-1 or BTV-4. Animals were monitored for clinical signs, antibody responses, and viral RNA. 19/20 animals vaccinated with BTV-1 VLPs either alone or in combination with BTV-4 VLPs developed neutralizing antibodies to BTV-1, and group specific antibodies to BTV VP7. The one animal that showed no detectable neutralizing antibodies, or group specific antibodies, had detectable viral RNA following challenge but did not display any clinical signs on challenge with virulent BTV-1. In contrast, all control animals' demonstrated classical clinical signs for bluetongue on challenge with the same virus. Six animals were vaccinated with bivalent vaccine and challenged with virulent BTV-4, two of these animals had detectable viral levels of viral RNA, and one of these showed clinical signs consistent with BTV infection and died. CONCLUSIONS There is good evidence that BTV-1 VLPs delivered as monovalent or bivalent immunogen protect from bluetongue disease on challenge with virulent BTV-1. However, it is possible that there is some interference in protective response for BTV-4 in the bivalent BTV-1 and BTV-4 VLP vaccine. This raises the question of whether all combinations of bivalent BTV vaccines are possible, or if immunodominance of particular serotypes could interfere with vaccine efficacy.

Freedom from equine infectious anaemia virus infection in Spanish Purebred horses

Introduction: No cases of equine infectious anaemia (EIA) have been reported in Spain since 1983. Factors that could increase the risk of reintroducing equine infectious anaemia virus (EIAV) into Spain include the recent occurrence of the disease in Europe and the absence of compulsory serological testing before importation into Spain. Aims and objectives: Given the importance of the Spanish Purebred (SP) horse breeding industry in Spain, the aim of this cross-sectional study was to provide evidence of freedom from EIAV in SP stud farms in Central Spain. Materials and methods: Serum samples from 555 SP horses, collected between September 2011 and November 2013, were tested using a commercially available EIAV ELISA with a published sensitivity of 100 per cent. Results: All 555 samples were negative for antibody to EIAV, providing evidence of a true EIAV seroprevalence between 0 per cent and 0.53 per cent (95% CIs of the sensitivity and specificity of the ELISA technique used Q10 were 100 per cent and 99.3 per cent, respectively) among the SP breeding population in Central Spain. Conclusions: These findings should serve to increase confidence when exporting SP horses to other countries.