On the time to reach a critical number of infections in epidemic models with infective and susceptible immigrants.

In this paper we examine the time T to reach a critical number K0 of infections during an outbreak in an epidemic model with infective and susceptible immigrants. The underlying process X, which was first introduced by Ridler-Rowe (1967), is related to recurrent diseases and it appears to be analytically intractable. We present an approximating model inspired from the use of extreme values, and we derive formulae for the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of T and its moments, which are evaluated by using an iterative procedure. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effects of the contact and removal rates on the expected values of T and the threshold K0, when the initial time instant corresponds to an invasion time. We also study the exact reproduction number Rexact,0 and the population transmission number Rp, which are random versions of the basic reproduction number R0.

Estudio de la infección "Clostridium difficile": incidencia, epidemiología, características clínicas, factores de riesgo de gravedad y recurrencia

Clostridium difficile causes a broad range of diseases in humans, from mild colitis to pseudomembranous colitis and disease refractory to treatment, fulminant and fatal. It is an infection whose frequency, seriousness and related morbidity and mortality have increased in recent years [1-4]. Nowadays it is regarded as an emerging public health problem, and prevention and monitoring are particularly recommended. In recent years, different authors have described a change in its epidemiology, which affects not only the populations traditionally involved, but also children and patients from the community [2, 5]. Moreover, the Spanish situation has proven to be different, in terms of the ribotypes present, to other countries in Europe, Canada and the USA. Thus, the performance of an in-depth study in this type of patients in Spain, as well as the source of the acquisition of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI), is of major relevance. The main predisposing factor to acquiring CDI is the use of antibiotics in the previous 8 weeks (90% cases in some series), even with a single prophylactic dose. Other risk factors are a previous stay in health-care centers, particularly hospitals, being old and immunodepression, including transplantations and HIV [6]. The severity of CDI has been associated both with host factors and microorganism-specific factors...

Evidence of shared bovine viral diarrhea infections between red deer and extensively raised cattle in south-central Spain

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is a pestivirus that affects cattle production worldwide and that can infect other ungulates such as cervids and even wild boar (Sus scrofa). It is believed that domestic livestock can become infected through contact with wild animals, though it is known that infection can spread among wild animals in the absence of contact with livestock. Little is known about the sharing of BVDV infection between wild and domestic animals in the same habitat, which is important for designing eradication campaigns and preventing outbreaks, especially on hunting estates with high animal densities.