Variability of the ocean heat content during the last millennium - an assessment with the ECHO-g Model

Studies addressing climate variability during the last millennium generally focus on variables with a direct influence on climate variability, like the fast thermal response to varying radiative forcing, or the large-scale changes in atmospheric dynamics (e. g. North Atlantic Oscillation). The ocean responds to these variations by slowly integrating in depth the upper heat flux changes, thus producing a delayed influence on ocean heat content (OHC) that can later impact low frequency SST (sea surface temperature) variability through reemergence processes. In this study, both the externally and internally driven variations of the OHC during the last millennium are investigated using a set of fully coupled simulations with the ECHO-G (coupled climate model ECHAMA4 and ocean model HOPE-G) atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). When compared to observations for the last 55 yr, the model tends to overestimate the global trends and underestimate the decadal OHC variability. Extending the analysis back to the last one thousand years, the main impact of the radiative forcing is an OHC increase at high latitudes, explained to some extent by a reduction in cloud cover and the subsequent increase of short-wave radiation at the surface. This OHC response is dominated by the effect of volcanism in the preindustrial era, and by the fast increase of GHGs during the last 150 yr. Likewise, salient impacts from internal climate variability are observed at regional scales. For instance, upper temperature in the equatorial Pacific is controlled by ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) variability from interannual to multidecadal timescales. Also, both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulate intermittently the interdecadal OHC variability in the North Pacific and Mid Atlantic, respectively. The NAO, through its influence on North Atlantic surface heat fluxes and convection, also plays an important role on the OHC at multiple timescales, leading first to a cooling in the Labrador and Irminger seas, and later on to a North Atlantic warming, associated with a delayed impact on the AMO.

On the driving processes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Because of its relevance for the global climate the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has been a major research focus for many years. Yet the question of which physical mechanisms ultimately drive the AMOC, in the sense of providing its energy supply, remains a matter of controversy. Here we review both observational data and model results concerning the two main candidates: vertical mixing processes in the ocean's interior and wind-induced Ekman upwelling in the Southern Ocean. In distinction to the energy source we also discuss the role of surface heat and freshwater fluxes, which influence the volume transport of the meridional overturning circulation and shape its spatial circulation pattern without actually supplying energy to the overturning itself in steady state. We conclude that both wind-driven upwelling and vertical mixing are likely contributing to driving the observed circulation. To quantify their respective contributions, future research needs to address some open questions, which we outline.

A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration

As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, integrations with a common design have been undertaken with eleven different climate models to compare the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation ( THC) to time-dependent climate change caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over 140 years, during which the CO2 concentration quadruples, the circulation strength declines gradually in all models, by between 10 and 50%. No model shows a rapid or complete collapse, despite the fairly rapid increase and high final concentration of CO2. The models having the strongest overturning in the control climate tend to show the largest THC reductions. In all models, the THC weakening is caused more by changes in surface heat flux than by changes in surface water flux. No model shows a cooling anywhere, because the greenhouse warming is dominant.

Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is an important part of the earth's climate system. Previous research has shown large uncertainties in simulating future changes in this critical system. The simulated THC response to idealized freshwater perturbations and the associated climate changes have been intercompared as an activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) committees. This intercomparison among models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) seeks to document and improve understanding of the causes of the wide variations in the modeled THC response. The robustness of particular simulation features has been evaluated across the model results. In response to 0.1-Sv (1 Sv equivalent to 10^6 ms^3 s^-1) freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic, the multimodel ensemble mean THC weakens by 30% after 100 yr. All models simulate sonic weakening of the THC, but no model simulates a complete shutdown of the THC. The multimodel ensemble indicates that the surface air temperature could present a complex anomaly pattern with cooling south of Greenland and warming over the Barents and Nordic Seas. The Atlantic ITCZ tends to shift southward. In response to 1.0-Sv freshwater input, the THC switches off rapidly in all model simulations. A large cooling occurs over the North Atlantic. The annual mean Atlantic ITCZ moves into the Southern Hemisphere. Models disagree in terms of the reversibility of the THC after its shutdown. In general, the EMICs and AOGCMs obtain similar THC responses and climate changes with more pronounced and sharper patterns in the AOGCMs.

The Westerly Index as complementary indicator of the North Atlantic oscillation in explaining drought variability across Europe

This paper analyses the influence of different atmospheric circulation indices on the multi-scalar drought variability across Europe by using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The monthly circulation indices used in this study include the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA), the Scandinavian (SCAN) and the East Atlantic-Western Russia (EA-WR) patterns, as well as the recently published Westerly Index (WI), defined as the persistence of westerly winds over the eastern north Atlantic region. The results indicate that European drought variability is better explained by the station-based NAO index and the WI than by any other combination of circulation indices. In northern and central Europe the variability of drought severity for different seasons and time-scales is strongly associated with the WI. On the contrary, the influence of the NAO on southern Europe droughts is stronger than that exerted by the WI. The correlation patterns of the NAO and WI with the SPEI show a spatial complementarity in shaping drought variability across Europe. Lagged correlations of the NAO and WI with the SPEI also indicate enough skill of both indices to anticipate drought severity several months in advance. As long as instrumental series of the NAO and WI are available, their combined use would allow inferring European drought variability for the last two centuries and improve the calibration and interpretation of paleoclimatic proxies associated with drought.

Documentary sources to investigate multidecadal variability of droughts

Droughts are probably the natural hazard with the highest socioeconomic impact. Simultaneously, they are a very complex phenomenon; they are triggered by a diversity of physical factors and occur at a variety of time scales. Consequently, the instrumental record currently available is too short and the characterization of its multidecadal variability requires the use of natural proxies (tree rings, sedimentary records) or documentary sources. In this paper we analyse three documentary sources with potential to analyse the long-term variability of droughts: chapter acts, logbooks and chronicles. The chapter acts recorded discussions and decisions made during the assemblies of the local authorities and provide continuous and direct evidence on drought impacts. They are especially useful to study droughts between the 15th and the 19th centuries in Europe and the 17th to 18th in the former colonies. Logbooks recorded the meteorological conditions and the incidents occurred during navigation. They provide indirect information through the circulation indices that can be very helpful to understand the mechanisms and teleconnections associated to droughts. Finally, the chronicles are historiographical documents describing political and social events. They are secondary sources and the references to climatic events are discontinuous, thus their analysis must be extremely careful, but they are especially useful to study specific drought events especially prior to 15th century when no other sources are available.