Variability of the ocean heat content during the last millennium - an assessment with the ECHO-g Model

Studies addressing climate variability during the last millennium generally focus on variables with a direct influence on climate variability, like the fast thermal response to varying radiative forcing, or the large-scale changes in atmospheric dynamics (e. g. North Atlantic Oscillation). The ocean responds to these variations by slowly integrating in depth the upper heat flux changes, thus producing a delayed influence on ocean heat content (OHC) that can later impact low frequency SST (sea surface temperature) variability through reemergence processes. In this study, both the externally and internally driven variations of the OHC during the last millennium are investigated using a set of fully coupled simulations with the ECHO-G (coupled climate model ECHAMA4 and ocean model HOPE-G) atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). When compared to observations for the last 55 yr, the model tends to overestimate the global trends and underestimate the decadal OHC variability. Extending the analysis back to the last one thousand years, the main impact of the radiative forcing is an OHC increase at high latitudes, explained to some extent by a reduction in cloud cover and the subsequent increase of short-wave radiation at the surface. This OHC response is dominated by the effect of volcanism in the preindustrial era, and by the fast increase of GHGs during the last 150 yr. Likewise, salient impacts from internal climate variability are observed at regional scales. For instance, upper temperature in the equatorial Pacific is controlled by ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) variability from interannual to multidecadal timescales. Also, both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulate intermittently the interdecadal OHC variability in the North Pacific and Mid Atlantic, respectively. The NAO, through its influence on North Atlantic surface heat fluxes and convection, also plays an important role on the OHC at multiple timescales, leading first to a cooling in the Labrador and Irminger seas, and later on to a North Atlantic warming, associated with a delayed impact on the AMO.

A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration

As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, integrations with a common design have been undertaken with eleven different climate models to compare the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation ( THC) to time-dependent climate change caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over 140 years, during which the CO2 concentration quadruples, the circulation strength declines gradually in all models, by between 10 and 50%. No model shows a rapid or complete collapse, despite the fairly rapid increase and high final concentration of CO2. The models having the strongest overturning in the control climate tend to show the largest THC reductions. In all models, the THC weakening is caused more by changes in surface heat flux than by changes in surface water flux. No model shows a cooling anywhere, because the greenhouse warming is dominant.

Critical behavior of the specific heat in glass formers

We show numeric evidence that, at low enough temperatures, the potential energy density of a glass-forming liquid fluctuates over length scales much larger than the interaction range. We focus on the behavior of translationally invariant quantities. The growing correlation length is unveiled by studying the finite-size effects. In the thermodynamic limit, the specific heat and the relaxation time diverge as a power law. Both features point towards the existence of a critical point in the metastable supercooled liquid phase.

Microcanonical finite-size scaling in second-order phase transitions with diverging specific heat

A microcanonical finite-size ansatz in terms of quantities measurable in a finite lattice allows extending phenomenological renormalization the so-called quotients method to the microcanonical ensemble. The ansatz is tested numerically in two models where the canonical specific heat diverges at criticality, thus implying Fisher renormalization of the critical exponents: the three-dimensional ferromagnetic Ising model and the two-dimensional four-state Potts model (where large logarithmic corrections are known to occur in the canonical ensemble). A recently proposed microcanonical cluster method allows simulating systems as large as L = 1024 Potts or L= 128 (Ising). The quotients method provides accurate determinations of the anomalous dimension, η, and of the (Fisher-renormalized) thermal ν exponent. While in the Ising model the numerical agreement with our theoretical expectations is very good, in the Potts case, we need to carefully incorporate logarithmic corrections to the microcanonical ansatz in order to rationalize our data.