Evaluation of the risk factors contributing to the African swine fever occurrence in Sardinia, Italy

This study assesses the relation between hypothesized risk factors and African swine fever virus (ASFV) distribution in Sardinia (Italy) after the beginning of the eradication program in 1993, using a Bayesian multivariable logistic regression mixed model. Results indicate that the probability of ASFV occurrence in Sardinia was associated to particular socio-cultural, productive and economical factors found in the region, particularly to large number of confined (i.e., closed) farms (most of them backyard), high road density, high mean altitude, large number of open fattening farms, and large number of pigs per commune. Conversely, large proportion of open farms with at least one census and large proportion of open farms per commune, were found to be protective factors for ASFV. Results suggest that basic preventive and control strategies, such as yearly census or registration of the pigs per farm and better control of the public lands where pigs are usually raised, together with endanced effords of outreach and communication with pig producers should help in the success of the eradication program for ASF in the Island. Methods and results presented here will inform decision making to better control and eradicate ASF in Sardinia and in all those areas with similar management and epidemiological conditions.

Design of maintenance structures for rural electrification with solar home systems. The case of the Moroccan program.

n decentralised rural electrification through solar home systems, private companies and promoting institutions are faced with the problem of deploying maintenance structures to operate and guarantee the service of the solar systems for long periods (ten years or more). The problems linked to decentralisation, such as the dispersion of dwellings, difficult access and maintenance needs, makes it an arduous task. This paper proposes an innovative design tool created ad hoc for photovoltaic rural electrification based on a real photovoltaic rural electrification program in Morocco as a special case study. The tool is developed from a mathematical model comprising a set of decision variables (location, transport, etc.) that must meet certain constraints and whose optimisation criterion is the minimum cost of the operation and maintenance activity assuming an established quality of service. The main output of the model is the overall cost of the maintenance structure. The best location for the local maintenance headquarters and warehouses in a given region is established, as are the number of maintenance technicians and vehicles required.