Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Stenosis triggers spread of helical Pseudomonas biofilms in cylindrical flow systems

Biofilms are multicellular bacterial structures that adhere to surfaces and often endow the bacterial population with tolerance to antibiotics and other environmental insults. Biofilms frequently colonize the tubing of medical devices through mechanisms that are poorly understood. Here we studied the helicoidal spread of Pseudomonas putida biofilms through cylindrical conduits of varied diameters in slow laminar flow regimes. Numerical simulations of such flows reveal vortical motion at stenoses and junctions, which enhances bacterial adhesion and fosters formation of filamentous structures. Formation of long, downstream-flowing bacterial threads that stem from narrowings and connections was detected experimentally, as predicted by our model. Accumulation of bacterial biomass makes the resulting filaments undergo a helical instability. These incipient helices then coarsened until constrained by the tubing walls, and spread along the whole tube length without obstructing the flow. A three-dimensional discrete filament model supports this coarsening mechanism and yields simulations of helix dynamics in accordance with our experimental observations. These findings describe an unanticipated mechanism for bacterial spreading in tubing networks which might be involved in some hospital-acquired infections and bacterial contamination of catheters.