Bayesian adaptive estimation of arbitrary points on a psychometric function

Bayesian adaptive methods have been extensively used in psychophysics to estimate the point at which performance on a task attains arbitrary percentage levels, although the statistical properties of these estimators have never been assessed. We used simulation techniques to determine the small-sample properties of Bayesian estimators of arbitrary performance points, specifically addressing the issues of bias and precision as a function of the target percentage level. The study covered three major types of psychophysical task (yes-no detection, 2AFC discrimination and 2AFC detection) and explored the entire range of target performance levels allowed for by each task. Other factors included in the study were the form and parameters of the actual psychometric function Psi, the form and parameters of the model function M assumed in the Bayesian method, and the location of Psi within the parameter space. Our results indicate that Bayesian adaptive methods render unbiased estimators of any arbitrary point on psi only when M=Psi, and otherwise they yield bias whose magnitude can be considerable as the target level moves away from the midpoint of the range of Psi. The standard error of the estimator also increases as the target level approaches extreme values whether or not M=Psi. Contrary to widespread belief, neither the performance level at which bias is null nor that at which standard error is minimal can be predicted by the sweat factor. A closed-form expression nevertheless gives a reasonable fit to data describing the dependence of standard error on number of trials and target level, which allows determination of the number of trials that must be administered to obtain estimates with prescribed precision.

The role of parametric assumptions in adaptive Bayesian estimation.

Variants of adaptive Bayesian procedures for estimating the 5% point on a psychometric function were studied by simulation. Bias and standard error were the criteria to evaluate performance. The results indicated a superiority of (a) uniform priors, (b) model likelihood functions that are odd symmetric about threshold and that have parameter values larger than their counterparts in the psychometric function, (c) stimulus placement at the prior mean, and (d) estimates defined as the posterior mean. Unbiasedness arises in only 10 trials, and 20 trials ensure constant standard errors. The standard error of the estimates equals 0.617 times the inverse of the square root of the number of trials. Other variants yielded bias and larger standard errors.

An X-ray study of the SNR G344.7-0.1 and the central object CXOU J170357.8-414302

Aims. We report results of an X-ray study of the supernova remnant (SNR) G344.7-0.1 and the point-like X-ray source located at the geometrical center of the SNR radio structure. Methods. The morphology and spectral properties of the remnant and the central X-ray point-like source were studied using data from the XMM-Newton and Chandra satellites. Archival radio data and infrared Spitzer observations at 8 and 24 mu m were used to compare and study its multi-band properties at different wavelengths. Results. The XMM-Newton and Chandra observations reveal that the overall X-ray emission of G344.7-0.1 is extended and correlates very well with regions of bright radio and infrared emission. The X-ray spectrum is dominated by prominent atomic emission lines. These characteristics suggest that the X-ray emission originated in a thin thermal plasma, whose radiation is represented well by a plane-parallel shock plasma model (PSHOCK). Our study favors the scenario in which G344.7-0.1 is a 6 x 10^3 year old SNR expanding in a medium with a high density gradient and is most likely encountering a molecular cloud on the western side. In addition, we report the discovery of a soft point-like X-ray source located at the geometrical center of the radio SNR structure. The object presents some characteristics of the so-called compact central objects (CCO). However, its neutral hydrogen absorption column (N_H) is inconsistent with that of the SNR. Coincident with the position of the source, we found infrared and optical objects with typical early-K star characteristics. The X-ray source may be a foreground star or the CCO associated with the SNR. If this latter possibility were confirmed, the point-like source would be the farthest CCO detected so far and the eighth member of the new population of isolated and weakly magnetized neutron stars.