9 resultados para wind power forecast error

em Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid Portal


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黄土高原地区水土流失类型复杂,既有自然因素和人为因素,也有水力、风力、重力产生的变化。同时气候干旱、水资源缺乏成为植物生长和生态环境改善的最大障碍。在国家实施西部大开发的进程中,良好的生态环境成为生存与发展和建设小康社会的标志。无论从西部大开发的战略角度考虑,还是从退耕还林(草)政策实施8年以后,如何解决黄土高原地区人民群众衣食住行、经济发展问题及黄河减沙的角度来看,采取有效措施,加快该区的生态建设已势在必行。根据第十一个五年规划的建议,以生态恢复学和土壤侵蚀学的基本原理为指导,分析了黄土高原地区的重要性,探讨了黄土高原生态建设与经济发展的基本现状,因地制宜地提出了发展对策。

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Based on the data of wind from 11 meteorological observation stations in recent 40 years, the paper analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of resultant drift potential in the Badain Jaran Desert. The 84 sand samples were collected and analysed from three compound crescentic dunes developped on southeast part of The Badain Jaran Desert. Through the statistics and computation of wind data and the analysis of Grain Size over compound crescentic dunes in The Badain Jaran Desert, this paper analyzed the characteristics of the blown sand activities in in this area. The following viewpoints were obtained: 1 Most parts of The Badain Jaran Desert are dominated by northwest wind and sub-dominated by west wind, while prevailing wind in southeast part of The Badain Jaran Desert is southeast, different froms other places. 2 The Badain Jaran Desert is strongly zoned from its surounding meteorological observation stations. It has impressively high DP and RDP value. Except for Ding Xin Station in medium wind power environment, the left stations are all belongs to high windpower districts. 3 From the seventies till now, the value of DP and RDP in The Badain Jaran Desert shows a decending trend except for the RDP value of Guai Zihu Station in the north. This trend indicates that the wind power for the moment of The Badain Jaran Desert is far lower than it in the seventies. 4 Adopting sand rose map for classification of wind environments in defferent parts of The Badain Jaran Desert, Ejinaqi is Narrow unimodal wind regimes, Ding xin, Bayinmaodao and Ayouqi districts obtuse bimodal and Guaizihu complex. 5 Resultant drift directions in most parts of the Badain Jaran desert are southeast, which indicates annual net sand in these areas drifted from the northwest to the southeast of the desert, which consists with the analysis results of grain size of predecessors. RDD in Ayouqi staion shows the net sand drifted from the southeast to the northwest in the recent 40 years, which may attribute to the reason that, the Badain Jaran desert lies in the zone influenced by both northwest and southeast wind, the southeast monsoon was strengthened and northwest wind became weaker than a former time. So, if sand mareria is sufficient, there are two different drift directions, namely two sorts of sand source, existed in Badain Jaran desert at least. 6 Based on analysis results of meteorologic data and grain size, blown sand activities is that, in most parts of Badain Jaran desert in the past 40 years, northwest wind transported net sand from the northwest part to the southeast part of The Badain Jaran Desert.And besides this, analysis of collected sand samples also shows that, in the southeast part of Badain Jaran desert, grain size do fined from southeast to northwest. Combining results of meteorologic data in the southeast part, it can infered that southeast monsoon took blown sand to the inner desert from its southeast part.

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Piezoelectric actuators are mounted on both sides of a rectangular wing model. Possibility of the improvement of aircraft rolling power is investigated. All experiment projects, including designing the wind tunnel model, checking the material constants, measuring the natural frequencies and checking the effects of actuators, guarantee the correctness and precision of the finite element model. The wind tunnel experiment results show that the calculations coincide with the experiments. The feasibility of fictitious control surface is validated.

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An improved peak power method for measuring frequency responses of photodetectors in a self-heterodyne system consisting of a distributed Bragg reflector laser is proposed. The time-resolved spectrum technique is used to measure the peak power of the beat signal and the intrinsic linewidth of heat signal for calibration. The experimental results show that the impact of the thermal-induced frequency drift, which is the main reason for producing an error in measurement by conventional peak power method and spectrum power method, can be removed.

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A differential recursive scheme for suppression of Peak to average power ratio (PAPR) for Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) signal is proposed in this thesis. The pseudo-randomized modulating vector for the subcarrier series is differentially phase-encoded between successive components in frequency domain first, and recursion manipulates several samples of Inverse fast Fourier transformation (IFFT) output in time domain. Theoretical analysis and experimental result exhibit advantage of differential recursive scheme over direct output scheme in PAPR suppression. And the overall block diagram of the scheme is also given.

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A complete set of match calculation methods for optimum sizing of PV/wind hybrid system is presented. In this method, the more accurate and practical mathematic models for characterizing PV module, wind generator and battery are adopted; combining with hourly measured meteorologic data and load data, the performance of a PV/wind hybrid system is determined on a hourly basis; by fixing the capacity of wind generators, the whole year's LPSP (loss of power supply probability) values of PV/wind hybrid systems with different capacity of PV array and battery bank are calculated, then the trade-off curve between battery bank and PV array capacity is drawn for the given LPSP value; the optimum configuration which can meet the energy demand with the minimum cost can be found by drawing a tangent to the trade-off curve with the slope representing the relationship between cost of PV module and that of the battery. According to this match calculation method, a set of match calculation programs for optimum sizing of PV/wind hybrid systems have been developed. Applying these match calculation programs to an assumed PV/wind hybrid system to be installed at Waglan island of Hong Kong, the optimum configuration and its hourly, daily, monthly and yearly performances are given. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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With the background of offshore wind energy projects, this paper studies aerodynamic performance and geometric characteristics of large capacity wind turbine rotors ( 1 to 10 MW), and the main characteristic parameters such as the rated wind speed, blade tip speed, and rotor solidity. We show that the essential criterion of a high-performance wind turbine is a highest possible annual usable energy pattern factor and a smallest possible dimension, capturing the maximum wind energy and producing the maximum annual power. The influence of the above-mentioned three parameters on the pattern factor and rotor geometry of wind turbine operated in China's offshore meteorological environment is investigated. The variation patterns of aerodynamic and geometric parameters are obtained, analyzed, and compared with each other. The present method for aerodynamic analysis and its results can form a basis for evaluating aerodynamic performance of large-scale offshore wind turbine rotors.

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With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society