data transformation and attribute subset selection: do they help make differences in software failure prediction?

IEEE, IEEE Comp Soc, Tech Council Software Engn

Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability

Both earthquake prediction and failure prediction of disordered brittle media are difficult and complicated problems and they might have something in common. In order to search for clues for earthquake prediction, the common features of failure in a simple nonlinear dynamical model resembling disordered brittle media are examined. It is found that the failure manifests evolution-induced catastrophe (EIC), i.e., the abrupt transition from globally stable (GS) accumulation of damage to catastrophic failure. A distinct feature is the significant uncertainty of catastrophe, called sample-specificity. Consequently, it is impossible to make a deterministic prediction macroscopically. This is similar to the question of predictability of earthquakes. However, our model shows that strong stress fluctuations may be an immediate precursor of catastrophic failure statistically. This might provide clues for earthquake forecasting.

软件缺陷预测技术

软件缺陷预测技术从20世纪70年代发展至今,一直是软件工程领域最活跃的内容之一,在分析软件质量、平衡软件成本方面起着重要的作用.研究和讨论了软件缺陷预测技术的起源、发展和当前所面临的挑战,对主流的缺陷预测技术进行了分类讨论和比较,并对典型的软件缺陷的分布模型给出了案例研究.

加卸载响应比方法在结构灾变预测中的应用

加卸载响应比方法为非均匀脆性介质的灾变评估提供了新的思路,即用加载与卸载响应的差别来定量刻画介质的损伤程度.为了验证加卸载响应比方法应用于结构失效分析的有效性,首先运用加卸载响应比方法对意大利那不勒斯大学完成的1个2层楼房的加卸载实验进行分析,结果表明:在临近结构破坏之前加卸载响应比时间序列确实出现了异常明显的升高及回落;进而引入岩石破裂声发射实验进行研究,发现采用轴向应变做响应量计算得剑的加卸载响应比时间序列与楼房结构的响应比曲线在演化趋势上非常一致.进一步比较声发射能量率和宏观应做为响应得到的加卸载响应比时间序列,发现两者有着较为同步的稳定、异常、升高至峰值、急剧回落的演化过程.为了明确加卸载响应比与结构内部损伤的联系,基于损伤力学方法从理论上对此进行了分析,很明显加卸载响应比值在一定程度上可以反推结构的损伤程度,其演化可以为大型结构健康评估和工程灾变分析提供有益的参考及借鉴.

a dynamic model to handle defect-oriented processes

Tongji Univ, Inst Dev Study, Syst Engn Soc China, Comm Syst Dynam, Syst Dynam Soc, China Chapter, Shanghai Inst Foreign Trade, Syst Dynam Soc, Chapters Asia Pacific Area

Computer simulation of the damage evolution of fiber-reinforced polypropylene-matrix composites with matrix defects

The damage evolution of fiber-reinforced polypropylene-matrix composites with matrix defects was studied via a Monte Carlo technique combined with a finite element method. A finite element model was constructed to predict the effects of various matrix defect shapes on the stress distributions. The results indicated that a small matrix defect had almost no effect on fiber stress distributions other than interfacial shear stress distributions. Then, a finite element model with a statistical distribution of the fiber strength was constructed to investigate the influences of the spatial distribution and the volume fraction of matrix defects on composite failure. The results showed that it was accurate to use the shear-lag models and Green's function methods to predict the tensile strength of composites even though the axial stresses in the matrix were neglected.

State Vector: A New Approach to Prediction of the Failure of Brittle Heterogeneous Media and Large Earthquakes

The concept of state vector stems from statistical physics, where it is usually used to describe activity patterns of a physical field in its manner of coarsegrain. In this paper, we propose an approach by which the state vector was applied to describe quantitatively the damage evolution of the brittle heterogeneous systems, and some interesting results are presented, i.e., prior to the macro-fracture of rock specimens and occurrence of a strong earthquake, evolutions of the four relevant scalars time series derived from the state vectors changed anomalously. As retrospective studies, some prominent large earthquakes occurred in the Chinese Mainland (e.g., the M 7.4 Haicheng earthquake on February 4, 1975, and the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake on July 28, 1976, etc) were investigated. Results show considerable promise that the time-dependent state vectors could serve as a kind of precursor to predict earthquakes.

Prediction of structural dynamic plastic shear failure by Johnson's damage number

It is proved that Johnson's damage number is the sole similarity parameter for dynamic plastic shear failure of structures loaded impulsively, therefore, dynamic plastic shear failure can be understood when damage number reaches a critical value. It is suggested that the damage number be generally used to predict the dynamic plastic shear failure of structures under various kinds of dynamic loads (impulsive loading, rectangular pressure pulse, exponential pressure pulse, etc.,). One of the advantages for using the damage number to predict such kind of failure is that it is conveniently used for dissimilar material modeling.

Damage evolution, localization and failure of solids subjected to impact loading

In order to reveal the underlying mesoscopic mechanism governing the experimentally observed failure in solids subjected to impact loading, this paper presents a model of statistical microdamage evolution to macroscopic failure, in particular to spallation. Based on statistical microdamage mechanics and experimental measurement of nucleation and growth of microcracks in an Al alloy subjected to plate impact loading, the evolution law of damage and the dynamical function of damage are obtained. Then, a lower bound to damage localization can be derived. It is found that the damage evolution beyond the threshold of damage localization is extremely fast. So, damage localization can serve as a precursor to failure. This is supported by experimental observations. On the other hand, the prediction of failure becomes more accurate, when the dynamic function of damage is fitted with longer experimental observations. We also looked at the failure in creep with the same idea. Still, damage localization is a nice precursor to failure in creep rupture.

Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Prediction of mixed-mode cracking direction in random, short-fibre composite-materials

The prediction of cracking direction in composite materials is of significance to the design of composite structures. This paper presents several methods for predicting the cracking direction in the double grooved tension-shear specimen which gives mixed-mode cracking. Five different criteria are used in this analysis: two of them have been used by other investigators and the others are proposed by the present authors. The strain energy density criterion proposed by G.C. Sih is modified to take account of the influence of the anisotropy of the strength on the direction of crack. The two failure criteria of Tsai-Hill and Norris are extended to predict the crack orientation. The stress distributions in the near-notch zone are calculated by using the 8-node quadrilateral isoparametric finite element method. The predictions of all the criteria except one are in good agreement with the experimental measurement. In addition, on the basis of the FEM results, the size of the zone in which the singular term is dominant is estimated.

中国东部上第三系硬粘土的工程地质特性及边坡开挖工程环境效应研究

The engineering geological properties of Neogene hard clays and related engineering problems are frontiers in the fields of Engineering Geology, Soil Mechanics and Rock Mechanics. Recently, it has been recognized that Neogene hard clay is the intermediate type of material between the soil and the rock. Many aspects of them, such as sampling, testing, calculating and engineering process, are special, which could not be researched by means of theories and methods of traditional Soil Mechanics of Rock Mechanics. In order to get real knowledge and instruct the engineering practice, intersect studying of multiple disciplines, including Engineering Geology, Soil Mechanics and Rock Mechanics, etc., is necessary. Neogene hard clay is one of the important study objects of regional problem rocks & soils in our country, which extensively distributed in China, especially in Eastern China. Taking the related areas along the middle line of the Project of Transferring Water from the South to the North (e.g. Nanyang basin, Fangcheng-Baofeng area and Handan-Yongnian area), South-west of Shandong, Xu-Huai area and Beijing area, etc. as main study areas, the paper divided Neogene hard clays into reduction environment dominated origin and oxidation environment dominated origin, which distributed on areas western and eastern to Mount Taihangshan respectively. Intermediate types are also existed in some areas, which mainly distribute near the edges of depositional basins; they are usually of transitions between diluvial and lacustrine deposits. As to Neogene hard clays from Eastern China, the clay particle content is high, and montmorillonite or illite/montmorillonite turbostratic mineral is the dominating clay mineral. The content of effective montmorillonite is very high in each area, which is the basis for the undesirable engineering properties of Neogene hard clays. For hard clays from the same area, the content of effective montmorillonite in gray-greenish hard clay is much higher than that in purple-brownish or brown-yellowish hard clay, which is the reason why the gray-greenish hard clay usually has outstanding expansive property. On the other hand, purple-brownish or brown-yellowish hard clay has relatively less montmorillonite, so its property is better. All of these prove that the composition (clay mineral) of Neogene hard clay is the control factor for the engineering properties. Neogene hard clays have obvious properties such as fissured, overconsolidated and expansive, which are the main reasons that many engineering problems and geological harzards usually occur in Neogene hard clays. The paper systematically elaborates the engineering properties of Neogene hard clays from Eastern China, analyses the relationships between engineering properties and basic indexes. The author introduces the ANN method into the prediction of engineering property indexes of hard clays, which provides a new way for quantitatively assessment and prediction of engineering property indexes. During investigation in the field, the author found that there exists obvious seam-sheared zone between different hard clays in Miocene Xiacaowan formation in Xu-Huai area. Similar phenomenon also exists near the borderline between Neogene hard clays and underlying coal measures in the Southwest of Shandong province, which could be observed in the cores. The discovery of seam-sheard zone has important theoretical and practical significance for engineering stability analysis and revealing the origin of fissures in Neogene hard clays. The macrostructure, medium structure and microstructure together control the engineering properties of hard clays. The author analyses and summarizes the structural effects on hard clays in detail. The complex of the strength property of hard clays is mostly related to the characteristics of fissures, which is one of the main factors that affect the choice of shear strength parameters. So structure-control theory must be inseparably combined with composition-control theory during the engineering geological and rock/soil mechanics research of hard clays. The engineering properties, such as fissured, overconsolidated and expansive, control the instability of engineering behaviors of Neogene hard clays under the condition of excavation, i.e. very sensitive to the change of existence environment. Based on test data analysis, the author elaborates the effects of engineering environment change on the engineering properties. Taking Nanyang basin as example, the author utilizes FEM to study the effects of various factors on stability of cutting canal slopes, than sets forth the characteristics, development laws and formation mechanism of the deformation and failure of hard clay canal slopes, summarizes the protection and reinforcement principles, as well as the protection and remedy steps. On the basis of comparison of engineering properties of domestic and foreign Neogene muddy deposits, in the view of whole globe and associated with the geological characteristics of China, the paper demonstrates that the intermediate type of the material between the soil and the rock, named "hard clay/soft rock", which can not be separated abruptly, really exists in China. The author has given a preliminary classification based on its geological origin and distribution law, which is very significant for promoting the mixture of Engineering Geology, Soil Mechanics and Rock Mechanics. In the course of large scales engineering construction in China, many engineering experiences and testing data are gained, summarizing these testing results and automatically managing them with computer technology are very necessary. The author develops a software named "Hard Clay-Soft Rock Engineering Geological Information Management and Analysis System (HRGIMS)", realizes the automatic and visual management of geo-engineering information, on the basis of information management, the functions of test data analysis and engineering property prediction are strengthened. This system has well merits for practice and popularization.