Statistical analysis of synthetic earthquake catalogs generated by models with various levels of fault zone disorder

The stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic rebound theory, is applied to the large events from four synthetic earthquake catalogs generated by models with various levels of disorder in distribution of fault zone strength (Ben-Zion, 1996) They include models with uniform properties (U), a Parkfield-type asperity (A), fractal brittle properties (F), and multi-size-scale heterogeneities (M). The results show that the degree of regularity or predictability in the assumed fault properties, based on both the Akaike information criterion and simulations, follows the order U, F, A, and M, which is in good agreement with that obtained by pattern recognition techniques applied to the full set of synthetic data. Data simulated from the best fitting stress release models reproduce, both visually and in distributional terms, the main features of the original catalogs. The differences in character and the quality of prediction between the four cases are shown to be dependent on two main aspects: the parameter controlling the sensitivity to departures from the mean stress level and the frequency-magnitude distribution, which differs substantially between the four cases. In particular, it is shown that the predictability of the data is strongly affected by the form of frequency-magnitude distribution, being greatly reduced if a pure Gutenburg-Richter form is assumed to hold out to high magnitudes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

The degree of predictability of earthquakes in several regions of China: statistical analysis of historical data

The stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic-rebound theory, is applied to the historical earthquake data from three strong earthquake-prone regions of China, including North China, Southwest China, and the Taiwan seismic regions. The results show that the seismicity along a plate boundary (Taiwan) is more active than in intraplate regions (North and Southwest China). The degree of predictability or regularity of seismic events in these seismic regions, based on both the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and fitted sensitivity parameters, follows the order Taiwan, Southwest China, and North China, which is further identified by numerical simulations. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

加卸载响应比在伊朗地区地震活动性研究中的应用

本文应用加卸载响应比理论,分别对2005年2月22日伊朗东南部克尔曼省扎兰德MS6.4地震和2006年3月31日伊朗西部洛雷斯坦省MS6.1地震2个震例进行了时程曲线分析;并用加卸载响应比方法对伊朗地区进行了时空扫描。通过考察加卸载响应比异常区域的演化过程,对该地区未来的地震活动性进行了研究。

美国西部地区加卸载响应比的时空演化及地震活动性分析

美国西部地区位于环太平洋地震带,该地震带是地球上地震活动最为强烈的地带,为了研究该地区的地震活动性,对该地区进行了加卸载响应比的时空扫描,考察了该地区加卸载响应比异常区域的时空演化;并用2001—2006年的扫描结果与次年实际发生的5级以上地震进行对比,发现绝大部分的强震都发生在前一年的预测区域内。根据加卸载响应比的时空演化和该地区的最新扫描结果,对未来地震活动性进行了分析。

Spatio-Temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

印度与欧亚板块强烈相互作用区深部结构特征研究

The central-south Tibet is a part of the products of the continental plate collision between Eurasia and India. To study the deep structure of the study area is significant for understanding the dynamics of the continental-continental collision. A 3-D density model matched well with the observations in the central-south Tibet was proposed in this study. In addition, this study has also used numerical simulation method to prove that Quasi-Love (QL) wave is deduced by anisotropy variation but not by lateral heterogeneity. Meanwhile, anisotropy variation in the upper mantle of the Qiangtang terrane and Lhasa terrane is detected by the QL waves observed in recorded seismograms. Based on the gravity modeling, some results are summarized as follows: 1) Under the constrain of geometrical structure detected by seismic data, a 3-D density model and Moho interface are proposed by gravity inversion of the central-south Tibet. 2) The fact that the lower crustal densities are smaller than 3.2 g/cm3, suggests absence of eclogite or partial eclogitization due to delamination under the central-south Tibet. 3) Seismicity will be strong or weak in the most negative Bouguer gravity anomaly. So there is no a certain relationship between seismicity and Bouguer gravity anomaly. 4) Crustal composition are determined after temperature-pressure calibration of seismic P wave velocity. The composition of lower crust might be one or a mixture of: 1. amphibolite and greenschist facies basalt beneath the Qiangtang terrane; 2. gabbro-norite-troctolite and mafic granulite beneath the Lhasa terrane. Because the composition of the middle crust cannot be well constrained by the above data set, the data set published by Rudnick & Fountain (1995) is used for comparison. It indicated the composition of the middle crust is granulite facies and might be pelitic gneisses.Granulite facies used to be interpreted as residues of partial melting, which coincidences with the previous study on partial melting middle crust. Amphibolite facies are thought to be produced after delamination, when underplating works in the rebound of the lower crust and lithospheric mantle. From the seismology study, I have made several followed conclusions: 1) Through the numerical simulation experiment of surface wave propagating in heterogeneity media, we can find that amplitude and polarization of surface wave only change a little when considering heterogeneity. Furthermore, it is proved that QL waves, generated by surface wave scattering, are caused by lateral variation of anisotropy but not by heterogeneity. 2) QL waves are utilized to determine the variation of uppermost mantle anisotropy of the Tibetan plateau. QL waves are identified from the seismograms of the selected paths recorded by the CAD station. The location of azimuth anisotropy gradient is estimated from the group velocities of Rayleigh wave, Love wave and QL wave. It suggests that south-north lateral variation of azimuthal anisotropy locates in Tanggula mountain, and east-west lateral variation in the north of Gandese mountain with 85°E longitude and near the Jinsha river fault with 85°E longitude.

云南岩石圈流变学及多震层孕震环境

The Study on rheology of the lithosphere and the environments of the seismogenic layer is currently the basic project of the international earthquake research. Yunnan is the ideal place for studying this project. Through the multi-disciplinary comprehensive study of petrology, geophysics, seismo-geology, rock mechanics, etc., the depth-strength profiles of the lithosphere have been firstly constructed, and the seismogenic layer and its geophysical and tectonic environments in Yunnan have been systematically expounded in this paper. The related results achieved are of the important significances for further understanding the mechanism of strong earthquake generation, dividing the potential foci and exposing recent geodynamical processes in Yunnan. Through the comprehensive contrast of the metamorphic rocks in early and middle Proterozoic outcropping on the surface, DSS data and experimental data of rock seismic velocity under high temperature and high pressure, the petrological structure of the crust and upper mantle has been studied on Yunnan: the upper, middle and lower crust is composed of the metamorphic rocks of greenschist, amphibolite and granulite facies, respectively or granitoids, diorites and gabbros, respectively, and the upper mantle composed of the peridotites. Through the contrast studies of the heat flow and epicenters of the strong earthquakes, the distribution of the geotemperature and the data of focal depth, the relationship of between seismicity and geothermal structure of the lithosphere in Yunnan has been studied: the strong earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 6.0 mainly take place at the geothermal gradient zone, and the seismic foci densely distribute between 200～500 ℃ isogeotherms. On the basis of studies of the rock properties and constituents of the crust and upper mantle and geothermal structure of the lithosphere, the structure of the rheological stratification of the lithosphere has been studied, and the corresponding depth-strength profiles have been constructed in Yunnan. The lithosphere in majority region of Yunnan has the structure of the rheological stratification, i.e. the brittle regime in the upper crust or upper part of the upper crust, ductile regime in the middle crust or lower part of the upper crust to middle crust, ductile regime in the lower crust and ductile regime in the subcrustal lithosphere. The rheological stratification has the quite marked lateral variations in the various tectonic units. The distributions of the seismogenic layer have been determined by using the high accurate data of focal depth. Through the contrast of the petrological structure, the structure of seismic velocity, electric structure, geotemperature structure, and rheological structure and the study of the focal mechanism in the seismogenic layer, the geophysical environments of the seismogenic layer in Yunnan have been studied. The seismogenic layer in Yunnan is located at the depths of 3 ～ 20 km; the rocks in the seismogenic layer are composed of the metamorphic rocks of greenschist to amphibolite facies (or granites to diorites); the seismogenic layer and its internal focal regions of strong earthquakes have the structure of medium properties with the relatively high seismic velocity, high density and high resistivity; there exists the intracrustal low seismic velocity and high conductivity layer bellow the seismogenic layer, the geotemperature is generally 100～500 ℃ in the depth range in which the seismogenic layer is located. The horizontal stress field predominates in the seismogenic layer, the seismogenic layer corresponds to the brittle regime of the upper crust or brittle regime of the upper crust to semibrittle regime of the middle crust. The formation of the seismogenic layer, preparedness and occurrence of the strong earthquakes is the result of the comprehensive actions of the source fault, rock constituent, structure of the medium properties, distribution of the geotemperature, rheological structure of the seismogenic layer and its external environments. Through the study of the structure, active nature, slip rate, segmentation of the active faults, and seismogenic faults, the tectonic environments of the seismogenic layer in Yunnan have been studied. The source faults of the seismogenic layer in Yunnan are mainly A-type ones and embody mainly the strike slip faults with high dip angle. the source faults are the right-lateral strike slip ones with NW-NNW trend and left-lateral strike slip ones with NE-NEE trend in Southwestern Yunnan, the right-lateral strike slip ones with NNW trend and left-lateral strike slip ones with NNE trend (partially normal ones) in Northwestern Yunnan, the right-lateral strike slip ones with NWW trend in Central Yunnan and left-lateral strike slip ones with NW-NNW trend in Eastern Yunnan. Taking Lijiang earthquake with Ms = 7.0 for example. The generating environments of the strong earthquake and seismogenic mechanical mechanism have been studied: the source region of the strong earthquake has the media structure with the relatively high seismic velocity and high resistivity, there exists the intracrustal low velocity and high conductivity layer bellow it and the strong earthquakes occur near the transitional zone of the crustal brittle to ductile deformation. These characteristics are the generality of the generating environments of strong earthquakes. However, the specific seismogenic tectonic environments and action of the stress field of the seismic source in the various regions, correspondingly constrains the dislocation and rupture mechanical mechanism of source fault of strong earthquake.

Lg尾波衰减成像研究——北京及邻区衰减成像

With the development of the technology of earthquake observation, more and more researchers work at many fields' of seismicity using seismic kinetic property, as the result, the study of attenuation has also made great progress, especially in the mechanism of the attenuation and the physical process. Aki put forward single back scattering theory to explain the forming of the seismic coda wave in 1969. Then, researchers started to develop the study in seismic scattering and attenuation. My thesis is also based on that theory. We assume that the Lg wave is a superposition fo high-mode surface waves, the coda of Lg is caused by scattering. Sato proposed Single Isotropic Scattering model (SIS model) to interpreted the scatter property, and he also formulated the geometrical spreading term. Then Xie (1988) developed the single spectral-ratio (SSR) method to obtain the Lg coda Q and the frequency dependent factor n. Later, he get to lateral images in the area of scatter ellipse. SSR method is explored and used in the study of Lg coda waves of regional earthquakes in my thesis. Choosing the earthquakes records with high ratio of signal-noise ,which were recorded at the stations from 1989 to 1999, we obtain the single trace Lg coda Q and its frequency dependent factor n. The results proved that SIS model is the reasonable model to explain the Lg coda wave, and SSR method also can be used to process Lg coda of regional earthquakes to get to the satisfied Lg coda Q. Based on the Lg coda Q we obtained using the former method, we explore the programs to inverse the regional Lg coda Q independently, and then make use of them to inverse the Lg coda Q of Beijing and adjacent area. The inversion result is satisfied. We conclude that the distribution of Qo (Q in lHz) is marked by the inhomogeneity, which is related to the tectonic structure: The value of Qo in uplift area, for example, Yanshan uplift, Taihang uplift, Luxi Uplift, is higher than the depression area, for example, Jizhong depression, Huanghua depression, and Jiyang depression, and the border between the higher Q area and lower Q area is very clear; Lg coda Q is also related to the velocity structure, higher velocity area is also with higher Q, lower velocity area is with lower Q; and higher heat-flow area is companied with lower Q. All in all, the value of Q reflects the difference of characteristics of lithofaces, porosity, the liquid content between the pores and heat flow. So, the Q value difference between uplift area and depression area reveals the difference of tectonic structure, lithology and physical character of the rock. So, the study of Lg coda Q is help to understand the earthquakes propagation mechanism through the inhomogenous medium, the cause of the coda, attenuation mechanism of the coda. Making use of the lateral images of Q, with velocity images, heat flow results, and other experimental result, we will be promoted to understand the complex structure of the crust, its inhomogenous character, and so on.

中国大陆及邻区地震活动背景、环境触发与地震预测研究

This dissertation that includes most of the P. PH.D research work during 2001~2002 covers the large-scale distribution of continental earthquakes in mainland China, the mechanism and statistic features of grouped strong earthquakes related to the tidal triggering, some results in earthquake prediction with correlativity analysis methods, and the flushes from the two strong continental earthquakes in South Asia in 2001. Mainland China is the only continental sub-plate that is compressed by collision boundaries at its two sides, within which earthquakes are dispersive and distributed as seismic belts with different widths. The control capability of the continental block boundaries on the strong earthquakes and seismic hazards is calculated and analyzed in this dissertation. By mapping the distribution of the 31282 ML:3s2,0 earthquakes, I found that the depth of continental earthquakes depend on the tectonic zonings. The events on the boundaries of relatively integrated blocks are deep and those on the new-developed ruptures are shallow. The average depth of earthquakes in the West of China is about 5km deeper than that in the east. The western and southwestern brim of Tarim Basin generated the deepest earthquakes in mainland China. The statistic results from correlation between the grouped M7 earthquakes and the tidal stress show that the strong events were modulated by tidal stress in active periods. Taking Taiwan area as an example, the dependence of moderate events on the moon phase angles (￡>) is analyzed, which shows that the number of the earthquakes in Taiwan when D is 50° ,50° +90° and 50° +180° is more than 2 times of standard deviation over the average frequency at each degree, corresponding to the 4th, 12th and 19th solar day after the new moon. The probability of earthquake attack to the densely populated Taiwan island on the 4th solar day is about 4 times of that on other solar days. On the practice of earthquake prediction, I calculated and analyzed the temporal correlation of the earthquakes in Xinjinag area, Qinghai-Tibet area, west Yunnan area, North China area and those in their adjacent areas, and predicted at the end of 2000 that it would be a special time interval from 2001 to 2003, within which moderate to strong earthquakes would be more active in the west of China. What happened in 2001 partly validated the prediction. Within 10 months, there were 2 great continental earthquakes in south Asia, i.e., the M7.8 event in India on Jan 26 and M8.1 event in China on Nov. 14, 2001, which are the largest earthquake in the past 50 years both for India and China. No records for two great earthquakes in Asia within so short time interval. We should speculate the following aspects from the two incidences: The influence of the fallacious deployment of seismic stations on the fine location and focal mechanism determination of strong earthquakes must be affronted. It is very important to introduce comparative seismology research to seismic hazard analysis and earthquake prediction research. The improvement or changes in real-time prediction of strong earthquakes with precursors is urged. Methods need to be refreshed to protect environment and historical relics in earthquake-prone areas.