Progress in the evaluation of transgenic fish for possible ecological risk and its containment strategies

Genetically improved transgenic fish possess many beneficial economic traits; however, the commercial aquaculture of transgenic fish has not been performed till date. One of the major reasons for this is the possible ecological risk associated with the escape or release of the transgenic fish. Using a growth hormone transgenic fish with rapid growth characteristics as a subject, this paper analyzes the following: the essence of the potential ecological risks posed by transgenic fish; ecological risk in the current situation due to transgenic fish via one-factor phenotypic and fitness analysis, and mathematical model deduction. Then, it expounds new ideas and the latest findings using an artificially simulated ecosystem for the evaluation of the ecological risks posed by transgenic fish. Further, the study comments on the strategies and principles of controlling these ecological risks by using a triplold approach. Based on these results, we propose that ecological risk evaluation and prevention strategies are indispensable important components and should be accompanied with breeding research in order to provide enlightments for transgenic fish breeding, evaluation of the ecological risks posed by transgenic fish, and development of containment strategies against the risks.

油气勘探风险评价与决策技术研究

PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.

the role of software process simulation modeling in software risk management: a systematic review

Univ SE Calif, Ctr Syst & Software Engn, ABB, Microsoft Res, IEEE, ACMSIGSOFT, N Carolina State Univ Comp Sci

Monitoring A Micromechanical Process In Macroscale Carbon Nanotube Films And Fibers

The evaluation of mechanical properties of carbon nanotube (CNT) fibers is inherently difficult. Here, Raman scattering-a generic methodology independent of mechanical measurements-is used to determine the interbundle strength and microscopic failure process for various CNT macroarchitectures. Raman data are used to predict the moduli of CNT films and fibers, and to illustrate the influences of the twisting geometries on the fibers' mechanical performances.

Damage evaluation and damage localization of rock

Knowledge of damage accumulation and corresponding failure evolution are prerequisite for effective maintenance of civil engineering so as to avoid disaster. Based on statistical mesoscopic damage mechanics, it was revealed that there are three stages in the process of deformation, damage and failure of multiscale heterogeneous elastic-brittle medium. These are uniformly distributed damage, localized damage and catastrophic failure. In order to identify the transitions from scattering damage to macroscopically localized one, a condition for damage localization was given. The experiments of rock under uniaxial compression with the aid of observations of acoustic emission and speckle correlation do support the concept of localization. This provides a potential approach to properly evaluate damage accumulation in practice. In addition, it is found in the experiments that catastrophic failure displays critical sensitivity. This gives a helpful clue to the prediction of catastrophic failure. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EVALUATION OF FILM-SUBSTRATE ADHESION VIA IMPACT USING COATED BULLETS

A method was devised to evaluate the adhesion between a film and a substrate. A front-end coated bullet is accelerated by a gas gun and hits the substrate of the specimen under test. The impact generates a compressive stress pulse that propagates toward the film. After transmission through the interface, part of the pulse is reflected on the free surface of the film, and tensile stress arises at the film-substrate interface, possibly inducing debonding of the film. This dynamic process was demonstrated analytically and simulated numerically by the finite element method. The results validate the initial concept and lay the foundation for further optimization of this method.