Statistical analysis of synthetic earthquake catalogs generated by models with various levels of fault zone disorder

The stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic rebound theory, is applied to the large events from four synthetic earthquake catalogs generated by models with various levels of disorder in distribution of fault zone strength (Ben-Zion, 1996) They include models with uniform properties (U), a Parkfield-type asperity (A), fractal brittle properties (F), and multi-size-scale heterogeneities (M). The results show that the degree of regularity or predictability in the assumed fault properties, based on both the Akaike information criterion and simulations, follows the order U, F, A, and M, which is in good agreement with that obtained by pattern recognition techniques applied to the full set of synthetic data. Data simulated from the best fitting stress release models reproduce, both visually and in distributional terms, the main features of the original catalogs. The differences in character and the quality of prediction between the four cases are shown to be dependent on two main aspects: the parameter controlling the sensitivity to departures from the mean stress level and the frequency-magnitude distribution, which differs substantially between the four cases. In particular, it is shown that the predictability of the data is strongly affected by the form of frequency-magnitude distribution, being greatly reduced if a pure Gutenburg-Richter form is assumed to hold out to high magnitudes.

Numerical Solutions for the Transient Flow in the Homogenous Closed Circle Reservoirs

There are many fault block fields in China. A fault block field consists of fault pools. The small fault pools can be viewed as the closed circle reservoirs in some case. In order to know the pressure change of the developed formation and provide the formation data for developing the fault block fields reasonably, the transient flow should be researched. In this paper, we use the automatic mesh generation technology and the finite element method to solve the transient flow problem for the well located in the closed circle reservoir, especially for the well located in an arbitrary position in the closed circle reservoir. The pressure diffusion process is visualized and the well-location factor concept is first proposed in this paper. The typical curves of pressure vs time for the well with different well-location factors are presented. By comparing numerical results with the analytical solutions of the well located in the center of the closed circle reservoir, the numerical method is verified.

gcs-ma: a group communication system for mobile agents

Reliable messaging is a key component necessary for mobile agent systems. Current researches focus on reliable one-to-one message delivery to mobile agents. But how to implement a group communication system for mobile agents remains an open issue, which is a powerful block that facilitates the development of fault-tolerant mobile agent systems. In this paper, we propose a group communication system for mobile agents (GCS-MA), which includes totally ordered multicast and membership management functions. We divide a group of mobile agents into several agent clusters,and each agent cluster consists of all mobile agents residing in the same sub-network and is managed by a special module, named coordinator. Then, all coordinators form a ring-based overlay for interchanging messages between clusters. We present a token-based algorithm, an intra-cluster messaging algorithm and an inter-cluster migration algorithm to achieve atomicity and total ordering properties of multicast messages, by building a membership protocol on top of the clustering and failure detection mechanisms. Performance issues of the proposed system have been analysed through simulations. We also describe the application of the proposed system in the context of the service cooperation middleware (SCM) project.

改进的符号时间序列分析方法及其在电机故障诊断中的应用

提出了一种改进的基于符号时间序列分析的电机异常探测方法,该方法自适应地将符号序列中出现符号最多的符号区间重新划分为2个新的符号区间,使得数据密集区间可以分配到相对更多的符号,而数据稀疏区间则分配到较少的符号,提高了符号对于信号变化的灵敏度。电机转子断条故障的诊断实验结果表明:该方法较平均划分区间的方法对于电机异常诊断有着更高的灵敏度以及更好的鲁棒性和可靠性。

旋翼飞行机器人故障诊断与容错控制技术综述

对故障诊断和容错技术的发展过程进行了简要概述,以旋翼飞行机器人为研究对象,在分析了旋翼飞行机器人故障诊断与容错控制特点的基础上,介绍了当前国内外在该领域的研究进展和主要方法.最后,总结了该领域待解决的难点问题,并指出了该研究领域的发展趋势.

基于数字化生产模型的在线故障诊断技术研究

提出了一种基于数字化的生产模型,使用控制图、故障树分析和专家知识,能够进行制造过程实时监控的诊断,该模型提高了故障诊断系统的可靠性,并提供了可实际操作的可视化建模工具。所开发的在线统计过程控制系统能够根据生产事件的监测,动态响应制造过程变化。该系统运用可视化建模工具,根据专家经验进行故障树建模,通过故障树自动生成专家系统诊断规则库,实现诊断知识的自动获取。将该系统应用于汽车变速箱装配过程的检测与故障诊断,验证了方法的有效性。

基于粗糙集-BP神经网络的发动机故障诊断

由于发动机光谱分析监控数据中磨损微粒种类过多,如果将这些微粒信息直接作为神经网络的输入,则存在输入层神经元过多、网络结构复杂等诸多问题。本文将粗糙集引入到发动机故障诊断中来,利用粗糙集在属性约简方面的优势,删除冗余磨损微粒,提取出重要磨损微粒,并将其作为BP神经网络的输入,建立发动机故障诊断模型。该方法降低输入层的神经元个数,简化了网络结构,缩短网络训练时间,并且由于剔除了冗余磨损微粒,减少了由该部分微粒信息不准确而带来的误差,有效提高了故障诊断的精确度。最后通过算例分析验证了相关算法和诊断模型的准确性和有效性。

海拉尔盆地贝尔凹陷基岩潜山特征及储层预测

The lithology of the buried hill of Triassic Budate group in Beier depression is epimetamorphic clastic rock and volcanic clastic rock stratum. Recently the favorable hydrocarbon show was discovered in buried hill of base rock, and large-duty industrial oil stream was obtained in some wells in Beier depression. Based on the information of seismos and wells, the tectonic framework, tectonic deformation times and faulted system of the Beier depression are comprehensively studied, then configuration, evolutional history, genetic type and distributed regularity of buried hill are defined. According to observing description and analysis of core sample, well logging and interpretive result of FMI, the lithological component, diagenetic type and diagenetic sequence of buried hill reservoir are confirmed, then reservoir space system of buried hill is distinguished, and vegetal feature, genetic mechanism and distributed regularity of buried hill fissure are researched, at the same time the quantitative relationship is build up between core fissures and fissures interpreted by FMI. After that fundamental supervisory action of fault is defined to the vegetal degree of fissure, and the fissure beneficial places are forecasted using fractal theory and approach. At last the beneficial areas of Budate group reservoir are forecasted by reservoir appraisal parameters optimization such as multivariate gradually regression analysis et. al. and reservoir comprehensive appraisal method such as weighing analyze and clustering procedure et. al. which can provide foundation for the next exploratory disposition. Such production and knowledge are obtained in this text as those: 1. Four structural layers and two faulting systems are developed, and four structural layers are carved up by three bed succession boundary surfaces which creates three tectonic distortional times homology. Three types of buried hill are divided, they are ancient physiognomy buried hill, epigenetic buried hill, and contemporaneous buried hill. 2. Reservoir space of Budate buried hill is mainly secondary pore space and fissure, which distributes near the unconformity and/or inside buried hill in sections. The buried hill reservoir experienced multi-type and multi-stage diagenetic reconstruction, which led to the original porosity disappeared, and multi secondary porosity was created by dissolution, superficial clastation and cataclasis et. al. in diagenetic stage, which including middle crystal pore, inter crystal pore, moldic pore, inter particle emposieu, corrosion pore space and fissure et. al. which improved distinctly reservoir capability of buried hill. 3. The inner reservoir of buried hill in Beier depression is not stratigraphic bedded construction, but is fissure developing place formed by inner fault and broken lithogenetic belt. The fissures in inner reservoir of buried hill are developed unequally with many fissure types, which mainly are high angle fissure and dictyonal fissures and its developing degree and distribution is chiefly controlled by faulting. 4. The results of reservoir comprehensive evaluate and reservoir predicting indicates that advantageous areas of reservoir of buried hill chiefly distributes in Sudeerte, Beixi and Huoduomoer, which comprehensive evaluate mainly Ⅱand Ⅲ type reservoir. The clues and results of this text have directive significance for understanding the hydrocarbon reservoir condition of buried hill in Beier depression, for studying hydrocarbon accumulated mechanism and distributed regularity, and for guiding oil and gas exploration. The results of this text also can enrich and improve nonmarine hydrocarbon accumulated theory.

准噶尔盆地西缘车排子地区隐蔽油气藏识别与勘探目标研究

After the half century exploration, previous scholar evaluating thought that there were poor Petro-Geological conditions in Chepaizi area of Zhungar basin. Recently, with the great discovery in the Well Pai2,the study on the subtle reservoir in Chepaizi area are gained great attentions by the scholars all over the world day by day. Chepaizi uplift is a inherited palaeohigh, and its structural traps are undeveloped. The sedimentary faces of Shawan Formation of Neogene have apron type of alluvial fan, alluvial plain, alluvial fan delta, salt lake, shore and shallow lake and so on. The sedimentary faces of Shawan Formation of Well Pai2 is alluvial fan delta and shore and shallow lake, the first part of Shawan Formation(N1s1) is the main target for exploration. Using the seismic forward, property analysis, spectral factorization, logging restrain inversion and so on, The spatial distribution of the sand reservoir and its hydrocarbon, predicted and 20 lithology traps in 5 substratums were carried out. The traps have a total areal of 107.13 Km2, and the geological reserves in it can reach 8703.7×104t. After comprehensive research on the trap,reservoir, cap and the condition of the hydrocarbon accumulation, it is considered that the elements of hydrocarbon in Chepaizi area are various. Because it can’t generate hydrocarbon, the oil and gas conducting and accumulation are the most important factors in this area, and the validity of the lithology traps in monoclinal is another important factor. Research indicates that the master control factor of the subtle reservoir in Chepaizi area is fault and sand. The sand of beach and sandbar provide the space for the hydrocarbon accumulation, the fault provides the migration channel for the hydrocarbon. Most faults have a characteristics of up seal and the down open, which not only can conduct hydrocarbon, but also can prevent hydrocarbon overtopping, therefore the effect trap is results of good match of fault and sand.

埕北断阶带油气运聚动力学研究

The problem of oil and gas migration and accumulation have been investigated for many years in petroleum geology field. However, it is still the most weak link. It is a challenge task to research the question about the dynamics of hydrocarbon migration and accumulation. The research area of this article,Chengbei step-fault zone is the important exploration area of Dagang oil field.The oil distribution is complicated in this area because of abundant faults and rock-reservoir-cap assemblage.In recent years, oil shows is often discovered, but no large-scale pool is found. The most important problem influencing exolore decision is lake of kowning about accumulation process of oil and resources potential. According to the geology characteristic and exolore difficult, the analysis principles of dynamics is used in this paper. The course from source to reservoir is considered as main research line, and relation of valid source rcok, migration dynamic and heterogeneous distribution of carrier is discussed especially in key time. By use of numerial model the couling of migration and passage is realized and dynamic process of oil migration is analysed quantitatively. On the basis of other research about structure and sendiment, basin model is built and parameters are choiced. The author has reconstructed characteristic and distribution of fluid dynamical in main pool-forming time by numerical model. The systems of oil migration and acuumulaiton are divided according to distribution of fluid potential. Furthermore, the scope of valid sourece rock and scale of discharging hydrocarbon is studied in geology history by the method of producting hydrocarbon poential. In carrier research, it is outstanding to analyse the function that fault controls the oil-gas migration and accumulation. According to the mechanism of fault sealing, the paper author puts forward a new quantitative method evaluating fault opening and sealing properties-fault connective probability by using the oil and gas shows in footwall and hangwall reservoir as the index of identifying fault sealing or non-sealing. In this method, many influencing factors are considered synthetically. Then the faut sealing propery of different position in third deimention of faults controlling hydrocarbon acummulation are quantitative evaluated, and it laies a foundation for building compex carrier systems. Ten models of carrier and dynamical are establishe by analysis of matching relation of all kinds of carriers in main pool-forming period. The forming process and distribution of main pathway has been studied quantitatively by Buoyancy-Percolation mode, which can conbine valid source rock, migration dynamical and carrier. On the basis of oil-gas migration and accumulation model, the author computes the loss of hydrocarbon in secondary migration, ahead of cap formation, and the quantity of valueless accumulation according to the stage of migration and accumulation and the losing mechamism. At the same time, resource potential is evaluated in every migration and accumulation system. It shows that the quanlity of middle systems arrive to 5.67×108t, which has a huge explore potential prospect. Finally, according to the result of quantitve analysis above mentioned, the favorable explore aims are forcasted by the way of overlapping migration pathway and valid trap and considering factors of pool-forming. The drilling of actual wells proved that the study result is credible. It would offer strong support to optimize explore project in Chengbei step-fault zone.

油气输导体系研究及应用─以准噶尔盆地东部白家海凸起侏罗系为例

Baijiahai uplift is an important hydrocarbon accumulation belt in eastern Jungger Basin, on which Cainan oilfield and lithologic hydrocarbon reservoir named Cai 43 have been discovered and both of them share the same target formation of Jurassic. However, in the subsequent exploration at this region, several wells that designed for lithologic traps of Jurassic were eventually failed, and that indicates the controlling factors of lithologic reservoir distribution are far more complicated than our previous expectation. This dissertation set the strata of the Jurassic in well Cai 43 region as the target, and based on the integrated analysis of structure evolution、fault sealing ability、simulations of sedimentary microfacies and reservoir beds、distribution analysis of high porosity-high permeability carrier beds、drive forces of hydrocarbons、preferential conduit system and conduit model as well as critical values of the reservoir physical properties for hydrocarbon charging, a special method that different from the conventional way to predict favorable lithologic traps was established. And with this method the controlling factors of the hydrocarbon reservoirs formation are figured out, and further more, the favorable exploration targets are point out. At Baijiahai uplift, fault plays as a crucial factor in the process of the hydrocarbon reservoir formation. In this study, it is found out that the availability of a fault that work as the seal for oil and gas are different. The critical value of the lateral mudstone smear factor (Kssf), which is used to measure the lateral sealing ability of fault, for oil is 3.9 while that for gas is 2.1; and the critical value of vertical sealing factor (F), which similarly a measurement for the vertical sealing ability of fault, for oil is 7.3 while that for gas is 5.1. Dongdaohaizi fault belt that possessed well lateral sealing ability since later Cretaceous have bad vertical sealing ability in later Cretaceous, however, it turns to be well now. Based on the comparison of the physical properties that respectively obtained from electronic log calculating、conventional laboratory rock analysis and the additive-pressure bearing laboratory rock analysis, we established the functions through which the porosity and permeability obtained though conventional method can be converted to the values of the subsurface conditions. With this method, the porosity and permeability of the Jurassic strata at the time of previous Tertiary and that in nowadays are reconstructed respectively, and then the characteristics of the distribution of high porosity-high permeability carrier beds in the evolution processes are determined. With the result of these works, it is found that both well Cai 43 region and Cainan oilfield are located on the preferential conduit direction of hydrocarbon migration. This conclusion is consistent with the result of the fluid potential analysis, in which fluid potential of nowadays and that of later Cretaceous are considered. At the same times, experiment of hydrocarbon injection into the addictive-pressure bearing rock is designed and conducted, from which it is found that, for mid-permeability cores of Jurassic, 0.03MPa is the threshold values for the hydrocarbon charging. And here, the conception of lateral pressure gradient is proposed to describe the lateral driving force for hydrocarbon migration. With this conception, it is found that hydrocarbons largely distributed in the areas where lateral pressure gradient is greater than 0. 03MPa/100m. Analysis of critical physical properties indicated that the value of the critical porosity and critical permeability varied with burial depth, and it is the throat radius of a certain reservoir bed that works as a key factor in controlling hydrocarbon content. Three parameters are proposed to describe the critical physical properties in this dissertation, which composite of effective oil-bearing porosity、effective oil-bearing permeability and preferential flow coefficient. And found that critical physical properties, at least to some extent, control the hydrocarbon distribution of Jurassic in Baijiahai uplift. Synthesize the content discussed above, this dissertation analyzed the key factors i.e., critical physical properties、driving force、conduit system and fluid potential, which controlled the formation of the lithologic reservoir in Baijiahai uplift. In all of which conduit system and fluid potential determined the direction of hydrocarbon migration, and substantially they are critical physical properties of reservoir bed and the lateral pressure gradient that controlled the eventually hydrocarbon distribution. At the same times, sand bodies in the major target formation that are recognized by reservoir bed simulation are appraised, then predict favorite direction of the next step exploration of lithologic reservoir.

柴达木盆地北缘西段油气运聚动力学研究

Hydrocarbon migration and accumulation are the important process to form reservoirs in sedimentary basins, and their researches are usually very difficult to be done in petroleum geology. In this paper, the west segment of northern margin of the Qaidam Basin was selected as study area. The concept of fault open coefficient, that combines multi-factors dealing with fault sealing, was applied to estimate semi-quantitatively the sealing characteristics of six faults which were considered controlling the hydrocarbon migration and accumulation. The data from boreholes were investigated to appraise the permeable characteristics of lithology combinations upon and beneath the unconformity surface. The result suggests that the basal conglomerates consist frequently the carriers. The data from boreholes and outcrops were collected to describe the sand carrier system. In order to eliminate the influence of inverse activities of the basin that made the formations be very steep, author adopts the phase method to build the basin models: for the steps before Pliocene the recovered true thickness maps were used to build the basin block; for the steps after Pliocene, the structure maps of today were used to build the basin block. During the modeling process, the results were calibrated by various measured data . the modeled results includes the dynamic evolvement course of trap form phase, vitrinite reflectance mature, the source rock expelled hydrocarbon intensity and fluid potential and petroleum plays. Author integrates the source rock expelled hydrocarbon intensity, fluid potential and carrier system and apply the migration technology based on percolation theory to simulate the oil and gas migration and accumulation course in the main accumulation times. The dominant pathways of oil and gas may show clearly the prospect distribution. Based on the hydrocarbon migration characteristics, the main control factors were synthesized, that including the effective source rock distribution, the match relationship of structural trap forming and hydrocarbon expelling from source rocks, the unconformity of Mesozoic and Cenozoic, the structures and the faults movement at Quaternary Finally, the author figures out the prospect plays in the study area.

复杂断块油气藏成藏机理和剩余油预测

Complex fault block reservoir is very important type in chinese oilfield.The reservoir have for many years and it has been the important issue of oil-gas exploration and development in china that how to increase reserves and production. Therefore,taking the Pucheng-oil field as an example, the article intensive study the geologic feature of oil pool, correctly recognize the rule of oil-gas accumulation and based on the fine representation of the characteristic of reservoir, research the remaining oil in high developed area,which is important for progressive exploratioon and development and taping the remaining oil. The article multipurpose uses the data of geology,drilling,wellloging, analysis and assay and so on, under the guidance multi-disciplinary theory, intensify the comprehension of the geologic feature of oil pool in high developed oil field. Based on the high-resolution sequence stratigraphic framework ,the article points out that Es_2 upper 2+3 reservoir in the south area of Pucheng oilfield is in the depositional environment of Terminal Fan, which has constant supply of sedimentary source ,and build the sedimentation model. Studies have shown that the major reservoir in work area is the distributary channel sandbody in central Sub-facies of Terminal Fan，secondary is both lateral accretion sandbodies of channel sands，nearby and far away from the channel overflowing sandbodies in front of the fan. The article analyze the effect of depth of burial of the reservoir, sandstone structure, strata pressure and bioturbate structure on control action of physical property for reservoir and indicate that deposition and diagenesis are major controlling factors.By building the model of reservoir heterogeneity, the article show the magnitude of reservoir heterogeneity ,the genesis and identification mark of Interlayer and build the the model of interlayer. in this area the vertical distribution of interlayer is complicated,but the intraed interlayer distribute steady. Thick interlayer is steady and the thin is relatively spreaded. By building models of fault sealing,stress field and fluid potential field of the south of the pucheng oil field, the regular pattern of fluid migration and accumulation runs out. By researching the elements of oil accumulation, migration pathway and accumulation period with quantification and semiquantitative methods,we bulit the oil-gas reservoir-forming mode of the south of the pucheng oil field,which will be the foundation of the rolling exploratory development in the future. We promulgated the master control element and the rule of distribution of the remaining oil with the upside 2+3 oil layer in shaer in the south of the pucheng oil field as an example.In this area, the formation and the distribution of the remaining oil is controled by the sedimentary microfacies, reservoir heterogeneity,fault and reservoir engineering. The remaining oil is concentrated in the vicinity of the gas cap, updip of the fault block and the area with incomplete flooding. Remaining oil saturation in some area can get 50%, so there are many places in which we can enhance oil recovery.

砂砾岩油藏精细油藏描述–以准噶尔盆地西北缘八区下乌尔禾组油藏为例

Glutenite reservoir is one of the most important reservoir types in china. Because of its particularity of rock structure and pore structure, it is usually difficult in development, especially for its serious heterogeneity. On the basis of seismic, well logs, core data and production performance, the lower Wuerhe group can be divided into one second-order sequences, two third-order sequences and twenty two subsequences, corresponding to the five stages and twenty two minlayers. In addition, the fault systems are interpreted and the control action of fault systems to reservoir development is also described. The lower Wuerhe formation of 8th district belongs to fluvial-dominated fan delta sedimentation, according to the analysis of well logs, logging data and core data. It can be subdivided into two kinds of subfacies and nine kinds of microfacies. The fan delta plain subfacies mainly consist of braided channel, unconcentrated flow, mud flow and sieve deposit microfacies. The fan delta front subfacies include subaqueous distributary channel, subaqueous interdistributary channel, debris flow, subaqueous barrier and grain flow microfacies. Combined with the regional geological characteristics, the porosity model of lower Wuerhe formation is performed using core data. A permeability model based on the flow zone index is also formed according to the pore throat characteristics and flow property. Finally, the heterogeneity is analyzed. The result shows that the lower Wuerhe formation has a feature of middle-high heterogeneity, and it is controlled by material sources and sedimentary facies belt.

海底金属矿床充水条件及矿坑突水的断层效应研究

The Xinli mine area of Sanshandao mine is adjacent to the Bohai Sea and its main exploitable ore deposit occurs in the undersea rock mass. The mine is the biggest undersea gold mine of China after production. The mine area faces a latent danger of water bursting, even sudden seawater inrush. There is no mature experience in undersea mining in China so far. The vein ore deposit is located in the lower wall of a fault; its possible groundwater sources mainly include bittern, Quaternary pore water and modern seawater. To ensure the safety of undersea mining, to survey the flooding conditions of the ore deposit using proper measures and study the potential seawater inrush pattern are the key technical problems. With the Xinli mine area as a case study, the engineering geological conditions of the Xinli mine area are surveyed in situ, the regional structural pattern and rock mass framework characteristics are found out, the distribution of the structural planes are modeled by a Monte Carlo method and the connectivity coefficients of rock mass structural planes are calculated. The regional hydro-geological conditions are analyzed and the in-situ hydro-geological investigation and sampling are performed in detail, the hydrochemistry and isotopes testing and groundwater dynamic monitoring are conducted, the recharge, runoff, discharge conditions are specified and the sources of flooding are distinguished. Some indices are selected from the testing results to calculate the proportion of each source in some water discharge points and in the whole water discharge of the Xinli mine area. The temporal and spatial variations of each water source of the whole ore deposit flooding are analyzed. According to the special project conditions in the Xinli mine area, the permeability coefficient tensors of the rock mass in Xinli mine area are calculated based on a fracture geometry measurement method, in terms of the connectivity and a few hydraulic testing results, a modified synthetic permeability coefficient are calculated. The hydro-geological conceptual and mathematical model are established，the water yield of mine is predicted using Visual Modflow code. The spreading law of surrounding rock mass deformation and secondary stress are studied by numerical analysis; the intrinsic mechanism of the faults slip caused by the excavation of ore deposit is analyzed. The results show that the development of surrounding rock mass deformation and secondary stress of vein ore deposit in the lower wall of a fault, is different from that in a thick-big ore deposit. The secondary stress caused by the excavation of vein ore deposit in the lower wall of a fault, is mainly distributed in the upper wall of the fault, one surface subsidence center will occur. The influences of fault on the rock mass movement, secondary stress and hydro-geological structures are analyzed; the secondary stress is blocked by the fault and the tensile stress concentration occurs in the rock mass near the fault, the original water blocking structure is destructed and the permeable structure is reconstructed, the primary structural planes begin to expand and newborn fissures occur, so the permeability of the original permeable structure is greatly enhanced, so the water bursting will probably occur. Based on this knowledge, the possible water inrush pattern and position of the Xinli mine area are predicted. Some computer programs are developed using object-oriented design method under the development platform Visual Studio.Net. These programs include a Monte Carlo simulation procedure, a joint diagrammatizing procedure, a structural planes connectivity coefficient calculating procedure, a permeability tensor calculating procedure, a water chemical formula edit and water source fixture conditions calculating procedure. A new computer mapping algorithm of joint iso-density diagram is raised. Based on the powerful spatial data management and icon functions of Geographic Information System, the pit water discharge dynamic monitoring data management information systems are established with ArcView.