Using the moving window incorporated neural network to forecast the population behavior of Nostocales spp. in the River Darling, Australia

The paper demonstrates the nonstationarity of algal population behaviors by analyzing the historical populations of Nostocales spp. in the River Darling, Australia. Freshwater ecosystems are more likely to be nonstationary, instead of stationary. Nonstationarity implies that only the near past behaviors could forecast the near future for the system. However, nonstionarity was not considered seriously in previous research efforts for modeling and predicting algal population behaviors. Therefore the moving window technique was incorporated with radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) approach to deal with nonstationarity when modeling and forecasting the population behaviors of Nostocales spp. in the River Darling. The results showed that the RBFNN model could predict the timing and magnitude of algal blooms of Nostocales spp. with high accuracy. Moreover, a combined model based on individual RBFNN models was implemented, which showed superiority over the individual RBFNN models. Hence, the combined model was recommended for the modeling and forecasting of the phytoplankton populations, especially for the forecasting.

Modeling phytoplankton dynamics in the River Darling (Australia) using the radial basis function neural network

A radial basis function neural network was employed to model the abundance of cyanobacteria. The trained network could predict the populations of two bloom forming algal taxa with high accuracy, Nostocales spp. and Anabaena spp., in the River Darling, Australia. To elucidate the population dynamics for both Nostocales spp. and Anabaena spp., sensitivity analysis was performed with the following results. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen had a very strong influence on the abundance of the two algal taxa, electrical conductivity had a very strong negative relationship with the population of the two algal species, and flow was identified as one dominant factor influencing algal blooms after a scatter plot revealed that high flow could significantly reduce the algal biomass for both Nostocales spp. and Anabaena spp. Other variables such as turbidity, color, and pH were less important in determining the abundance and succession of the algal blooms.