9 resultados para population model

em Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid Portal


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< p > The past population dynamics of four domestic and one wild species of bovine were estimated using Bayesian skyline plots, a coalescent Markov chain Monte Carlo method that does not require an assumed parametric model of demographic history. Four dom

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The numbers of spawning sites for Chinese sturgeon have been drastically reduced since the construction of the Gezhouba Dam across the Yangtze River. This dam has blocked migration of Chinese sturgeon to their historic spawning ground causing a significant decline of the Chinese sturgeon population. We conducted a VORTEX population viability analysis to estimate the sustainability of the population and to quantify the efficiency of current and alternative conservation procedures. The model predicted the observed decline of Chinese sturgeon, resulting from the effect of the Gezhouba Dam. These simulations demonstrated the potential interest of two conservation measures: increasing spawning area and reducing predation on sturgeon eggs. The simulations also demonstrated that the actual restocking program is not sufficient to sustain sturgeon population as the artificial reproduction program induce the loss of more wild mature adults that the recruitment expected by the artificial reproduction.

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Lake Dianchi is a shallow and turbid lake, located in Southwest China. Since 1985, Lake Dianchi has experienced severe cyanabacterial blooms (dominated by Microcystis spp.). In extreme cases, the algal cell densities have exceeded three billion cells per liter. To predict and elucidate the population dynamics ofMicrocystis spp. in Lake Dianchi, a neural network based model was developed. The correlation coefficient (R 2) between the predicted algal concentrations by the model and the observed values was 0.911. Sensitivity analysis was performed to clarify the algal dynamics to the changes of environmental factors. The results of a sensitivity analysis of the neural network model suggested that small increases in pH could cause significantly reduced algal abundance. Further investigations on raw data showed that the response of Microcystis spp. concentration to pH increase was dependent on algal biomass and pH level. When Microcystis spp. population and pH were moderate or low, the response of Microcystis spp. population would be more likely to be positive in Lake Dianchi; contrarily, Microcystis spp. population in Lake Dianchi would be more likely to show negative response to pH increase when Microcystis spp. population and pH were high. The paper concluded that the extremely high concentration of algal population and high pH could explain the distinctive response of Microcystis spp. population to +1 SD (standard deviation) pH increase in Lake Dianchi. And the paper also elucidated the algal dynamics to changes of other environmental factors. One SD increase of water temperature (WT) had strongest positive relationship with Microcystis spp. biomass. Chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total phosphorus (TP) had strong positive effect on Microcystis spp. abundance while total nitrogen (TN), biological oxygen demand in five days (BOD5), and dissolved oxygen had only weak relationship with Microcystis spp. concentration. And transparency (Tr) had moderate positive relationship with Microcystis spp. concentration.

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The paper demonstrates the nonstationarity of algal population behaviors by analyzing the historical populations of Nostocales spp. in the River Darling, Australia. Freshwater ecosystems are more likely to be nonstationary, instead of stationary. Nonstationarity implies that only the near past behaviors could forecast the near future for the system. However, nonstionarity was not considered seriously in previous research efforts for modeling and predicting algal population behaviors. Therefore the moving window technique was incorporated with radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) approach to deal with nonstationarity when modeling and forecasting the population behaviors of Nostocales spp. in the River Darling. The results showed that the RBFNN model could predict the timing and magnitude of algal blooms of Nostocales spp. with high accuracy. Moreover, a combined model based on individual RBFNN models was implemented, which showed superiority over the individual RBFNN models. Hence, the combined model was recommended for the modeling and forecasting of the phytoplankton populations, especially for the forecasting.

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The Yangtze finless porpoise, Neophocaena phocaenoides asiaeorientalis, is all endangered small cetacean that occurs only in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River of China. The establishment of a breeding population of the porpoise in Tian-e-Zhou Baiji National Natural Reserve represents the first attempt at ex situ conservation efforts for a cetacean species. With the goal of effective protection, management, and monitoring of this preserved population, we examined its genetic diversity using 930 bp of mtDNA control region sequences and 13 polymorphic microsatellite loci. A very low level of genetic variation (h = 0.6010 +/- 0.0029 s.d.; pi = 0.0007 +/- 0.0000002 s.d.) in the mtDNA control region sequences and a moderate genetic diversity (Ho = 0.5740 +/- 0.2575 s.d.) in the microsatellites were detected in the population. It is necessary to introduce more individuals with representative genetic variations into the reserve ill order to foml a larger and healthier group structure for long-term survival of the population. Successful establishment of the Yangtze finless porpoise population in the Reserve also provides a useful model for an ex situ conservation programme for other rare and endangered species. (c) 2005 International Council for the Exploration ofthe Sea. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Marine sponges (Porifera) possess an extraordinary diversity of bioactive metabolites for new drug discovery and development. In vitro cultivation of sponge cells in a bioreactor system is very attractive for the sustainable production of sponge-derived bioactive metabolites; however, it is still a challenging task. The recent establishment of sponge primmorphs, multicellular aggregates from dissociated mixed-cell population (MCP), has been widely acknowledged to hold great promise for cultivation in vitro. Here we present a new method to establish an in vitro sponge primmorph culture from archaeocyte-dominant cell population (ADCP) enriched by a Ficoll gradient, rather than a mixed-cell population (MCP). Our rationale is based upon the totipotency (the ability of a cell to differentiate into other cell types) of archaeocyte cells and the different biological functions of various sponge cell types. A sponge, Hymeniacidon perleve collected from the China Yellow Sea was used as a model system for this investigation. Distinct dynamics of primmorph formation were observed while significant increases in DNA synthesis, cell proliferation (up to threefold), and cell growth (up to fourfold) were achieved. Furthermore, a time-dependent spiculogenesis was clearly demonstrated in our longterm culture, indicating high metabolic activity of primmorphs from the ADCP. This new method represents an important step forward to advance sponge cell culture in vitro that may lead to commercial exploitation of sponge-derived drugs. (C) 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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Genetic variation of four populations of Sargassum thunbergii (Mert.) O. Kuntze and one outgroup of S. fusiforme (Harv.) Setchell from Shandong peninsula of China was studied with random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers. A total of 28 RAPD primers and 19 ISSR primers were amplified, showing 174 loci and 125 loci, respectively. Calculation of genetic diversity with different indicators (P%, percentage of polymorphic loci; H, the expected heterozygosity; I, Shannon's information index) revealed low or moderate levels of genetic variations within each S. thunbergii population. High genetic differentiations were determined with pairwise Nei's unbiased genetic distance (D) and fixation index (F-ST) between the populations. The Mantel test showed that two types of matrices of D and FST were highly correlated, whether from RAPD or ISSR data, r=0.9310 (P = 0.008) and 0.9313 (P=0.009) respectively. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) was used to apportion the variations between and within the S. thunbergii populations. It indicated that the variations among populations were higher than those within populations, being 57.57% versus 42.43% by RAPD and 59.52% versus 40.08% by ISSR, respectively. Furthermore, the Mantel test suggested that the genetic differentiations between the four populations were related to the geographical distances (r > 0.5), i.e., they conformed to the IBD (isolation by distance) model, as expected from UPGMA (unweighted pair group method with arithmetic averages) cluster analysis. As a whole, the high genetic structuring between the four S. thunbergii populations along distant locations was clearly indicated in the RAPD and ISSR analyses (r > 0.8) in our study.