The temporal and spatial evaluation on China's agricultural policy output since 1978

Since reform and opening up, how much contribution has China's implementation of new agricultural policy made to agricultural output? This paper is trying to establish an agricultural policy output econometric model for doing a quantitative analysis of China's new agricultural policy. The results show that China's agricultural policies on agricultural output have an average contribution rate of about 7% since 1978, which is consistent with the OECD's basic forecast. There are obvious temporal and spatial differences. Generally speaking, we can divide the contribution of agricultural policy into three periods, which are the start-up phase from 1978 to 1991 (14 years), the stationary phase from 1992 to 2002 (11 years) and the rising phase from 2003 to 2008 (6 years). In space, the contribution of agricultural policy underwent a process from the all-low in the start-up phase, the gradual increase in the stationary phase to the all-high in the rising phase. Northern and western regions are more sensitive to policies. There are three major factors that can affect the contribution of regional agricultural policies, which are the process of national industrialization strategy, terrain and the level of local finance.

Seasonal and interannual variability of primary and export production in the South China Sea: a three-dimensional physical-biogeochemical model study

To investigate the seasonal and interannual variations in biological productivity in the South China Sea (SCS), a Pacific basin-wide physical - biogeochemical model has been developed and used to estimate the biological productivity and export flux in the SCS. The Pacific circulation model, based on the Regional Ocean Model Systems (ROMS), is forced with daily air-sea fluxes derived from the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis between 1990 and 2004. The biogeochemical processes are simulated with a carbon, Si(OH)(4), and nitrogen ecosystem (CoSiNE) model consisting of silicate, nitrate, ammonium, two phytoplankton groups (small phytoplankton and large phytoplankton), two zooplankton grazers (small micrograzers and large mesozooplankton), and two detritus pools. The ROMS-CoSiNE model favourably reproduces many of the observed features, such as ChI a, nutrients, and primary production (PP) in the SCS. The modelled depth-integrated PP over the euphotic zone (0-125 m) varies seasonally, with the highest value of 386 mg C m (-2) d (-1) during winter and the lowest value of 156 mg C m (-2) d (-1) during early summer. The annual mean value is 196 mg C m (-2) d (-1). The model-integrated annual mean new production (uptake of nitrate), in carbon units, is 64.4 mg C m (-2) d (-1) which yields an f-ratio of 0.33 for the entire SCS. The modelled export ratio (e-ratio: the ratio of export to PP) is 0.24 for the basin-wide SCS. The year-to-year variation of biological productivity in the SCS is weaker than the seasonal variation. The large phytoplankton group tends to dominate over the smaller phytoplankton group, and likely plays an important role in determining the interannual variability of primary and new production.