Critical Sensitivity and Trans-Scale Fluctuations in Catastrophic Rupture

Rupture in the heterogeneous crust appears to be a catastrophe transition. Catastrophic rupture sensitively depends on the details of heterogeneity and stress transfer on multiple scales. These are difficult to identify and deal with. As a result, the threshold of earthquake-like rupture presents uncertainty. This may be the root of the difficulty of earthquake prediction. Based on a coupled pattern mapping model, we represent critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations associated with catastrophic rupture. Critical sensitivity means that a system may become significantly sensitive near catastrophe transition. Trans-scale fluctuations mean that the level of stress fluctuations increases strongly and the spatial scale of stress and damage fluctuations evolves from the mesoscopic heterogeneity scale to the macroscopic scale as the catastrophe regime is approached. The underlying mechanism behind critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations is the coupling effect between heterogeneity and dynamical nonlinearity. Such features may provide clues for prediction of catastrophic rupture, like material failure and great earthquakes. Critical sensitivity may be the physical mechanism underlying a promising earthquake forecasting method, the load-unload response ratio (LURR).

中国沙棘(Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. sinensis)天然群体的遗传变异分析

近十年，植物群体遗传学的研究飞速发展，然而与海拔相关的植物群体遗传结构和遗传变异研究却相对较少。到目前为止，还不清楚遗传变异与海拔之间是否有一个通用的格局。在山区，各种生态因子，如温度、降水、降雪、紫外线辐射强度以及土壤成分都随海拔梯度急剧变化，造成了即使在一个小的空间区域，植被类型变化显著，这种高山环境的异质性和复杂性为我们研究植物群体遗传结构和分化提供了方便。沙棘(Hippophea)属于胡颓子科(Elaeagnaceae)为多年生落叶灌木或乔木，雌雄异株，天然种群分布极为广泛。中国沙棘(H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis)是沙棘属植物中分布较广的一个亚种，种内形态变异非常丰富，加之其具有独特的繁育系统和广泛的生态地理分布，是研究沙棘属植物遗传变异和系统分化的理想材料。本文从1,800 m 到3,400 m 分5 个海拔梯度进行取样，用RAPD 和cpSSR 分子标记研究了卧龙自然保护区中国沙棘天然群体的遗传结构和遗传变异。5 个取样群体依次标记为A、B、C、D 和E，它们分别代表分布在海拔1,800，2,200，2,600，3,000 和3,400 m 的5 个天然群体。RAPD实验用11 条寡核苷酸引物，扩增得到151 个重复性好的位点，其中143 个多态位点，多态率达94.7%。在5 个沙棘群体中，总遗传多样性值(HT)为0.289，B群体内的遗传多样性值为0.315，这完全符合沙棘这种多年生、远交的木本植物具有高遗传变异的特性。5 个群体内遗传多样性随海拔升高呈低－高－低变异趋势，在2,200 m海拔处的B群体遗传多样性达最大值0.315，3,400 m海拔处的E群体则表现最小仅0.098。5 个群体间的遗传分化值GST＝0.406，也即是说有40.6%的遗传变异存在于群体间，1,800 m海拔处的A群体与其它群体的明显分离是造成群体间遗传分化大的原因。UPGMA聚类图和PCoA散点图进一步确证了5 个群体间的关系和所有个体间的关系。最后，经过Mantel检测，遗传距离与海拔表现了明显的相关性(r = 0.646, P = 0.011)。cpSSR 实验中，经过对24 对cpSSR 通用引物筛选，11 对引物能扩增出特异性条带，只有2 对引物(ccmp2 和ARCP4)呈现多态性。4 个等位基因共组合出4 种单倍型，单倍型Ⅰ出现在A 群体的所有个体和B 群体的8 个个体中，C、D、E 三个群体均不含有，而单倍型Ⅱ出现在C、D、E 三个群体的所有个体及B 群体的18 个个体中，A 群体不含有。另外两种单倍型Ⅲ和Ⅳ为稀有类型，仅B 群体中的4 个个体拥有。这种单倍型分布模式和TFPGA 群体聚类图揭示了，C、D、E 群体可能来源于同一祖先种，而A 群体却是由另一祖先种发展起来的，B 群体则兼具了这两种起源种的信息，这可能是因为在历史上的某一时期，在中国沙棘群体高山分化的过程中，B 群体处某个或者某些个体发生了基因突变，具备了适应高海拔环境的能力，产生了高海拔沙棘群体的祖先种。 In recent ten years, studies about population genetics of plants developed rapidly,whereas their genetic structure and genetic variation along altitudinal gradients have beenstudied relatively little. So far, it is uncleared whether there is a common pattern betweengenetic variation and altitudinal gradients. In the mountain environments, importantecological factors, e.g., temperature, rainfall, snowfall, ultraviolet radiation and soil substratesetc., change rapidly with altitudes, which cause the vegetation distribution varying typically,even on a small spatial scale. The mountain environments, which are heterogeneous andcomplex, facilitate and offer a good opportunity to characterize population genetic structureand population differentiation.The species of the genus Hippophae L. (Elaeagnaceae) are perennial deciduous shrubs ortrees, which are dioecious, wind-pollinated pioneer plants. The natural genus has a widedistribution extending from Northern Europe through Central Europe and Central Asia toChina. According to the latest taxonomy, the genus Hippophae is divided into six species and12 subspecies. The subspecies H. rhamnoides ssp. sinensis shows significant morphologicalvariations, large geographic range and dominantly outcrossing mating system. Thesecharacteristics of the subspecies are favourable to elucidate genetic variation and systemevolution. To estimate genetic variation and genetic structure of H. rhamnoides ssp. sinensisat different altitudes, we surveyed five natural populations in the Wolong Natural Reserve at altitudes ranging from 1,800 to 3,400 m above sea level (a.s.l.) using random amplifiedpolymorphic DNA markers (RAPDs) and cpSSR molecular methods. The five populations A,B, C, D, and E correspond to the altitudes 1,800, 2,200, 2,600, 3,000 and 3,400 m,respectively.Based on 11 decamer primers, a total of 151 reproducible DNA loci were yielded, ofwhich 143 were polymorphic and the percentage of polymorphic loci equaled 94.7%. Amongthe five populations investigated, the total gene diversity (HT) and gene diversity within population B equaled 0.289 and 0.315, respectively, which are modest for a subspecies of H.rhamnoides, which is an outcrossing, long-lived, woody plant. The amount of geneticvariation within populations varied from 0.098 within population E (3,400 m a.s.l.) to 0.315within population B (2,200 m a.s.l.). The coefficient of gene differentiation (GST) amongpopulations equaled 0.406 and revealed that 40.6% of the genetic variance existed amongpopulations and 59.4% within populations. The population A (1,800 m a.s.l.) differed greatlyfrom the other four populations, which contributes to high genetic differentiation. A UPGMAcluster analysis and principal coordinate analyses based on Nei's genetic distances furthercorroborated the relationships among the five populations and all the sampling individuals,respectively. Mantel tests detected a significant correlation between genetic distances andaltitudinal gradients (r = 0.646, P = 0.011).Eleven of the original 24 cpSSR primer pairs tested produced good PCR products, onlytwo (ccmp2 and ARCP4) of which were polymorphic. Four total length variants (alleles) werecombined resulting in 4 haplotypes. The haplotype was present in all individuals of Ⅰpopulation A and 8 individuals of populations B, the other three populations (C, D and Epopulations) did not share. The haplotype was present in all individuals of populations C, D Ⅱand E and 18 individuals of populations B, population A did not share. The other twohaplotypes and were rare haplotypes, which were only shared in 4 individuals of Ⅲ Ⅳpopulation B. The distribution of haplotypes and TFPGA population clustering map showedthat the populations C, D and E might be origined from one ancestor seed and population Amight be from another, whereas population B owned information of the two ancestor seeds. Itwas because that gene mutation within some individual or seed in the location of population Bwas likely to happen in the history of H. rhamnoides, which was the original ancestor of thehigh-altitude populations.

Land-cover classification of China: integrated analysis of AVHRR imagery and geophysical data

Over last two decades, numerous studies have used remotely sensed data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors to map land use and land cover at large spatial scales, but achieved only limited success. In this paper, we employed an approach that combines both AVHRR images and geophysical datasets (e.g. climate, elevation). Three geophysical datasets are used in this study: annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and elevation. We first divide China into nine bio-climatic regions, using the long-term mean climate data. For each of nine regions, the three geophysical data layers are stacked together with AVHRR data and AVHRR-derived vegetation index (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data, and the resultant multi-source datasets were then analysed to generate land-cover maps for individual regions, using supervised classification algorithms. The nine land-cover maps for individual regions were assembled together for China. The existing land-cover dataset derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images was used to assess the accuracy of the classification that is based on AVHRR and geophysical data. Accuracy of individual regions varies from 73% to 89%, with an overall accuracy of 81% for China. The results showed that the methodology used in this study is, in general, feasible for large-scale land-cover mapping in China.

中国近海和西北太平洋温跃层时空变化分析、模拟及预报

温度跃层是反映海洋温度场的重要物理特性指标，对水下通讯、潜艇活动及渔业养殖、捕捞等有重要影响。本文利用中国科学院海洋研究所“中国海洋科学数据库”在中国近海及西北太平洋（110ºE-140ºE,10ºN-40ºN）的多年历史资料（1930-2002年，510143站次），基于一种改进的温跃层判定方法，分析了该海域温跃层特征量的时空分布状况。同时利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国近海，特别是东南沿海的水文结构进行了模拟，研究了海洋水文环境对逆温跃层的影响。最后根据历史海温观测资料，利用EOF分解统计技术，提出了一种适于我国近海及毗邻海域，基于现场有限层实测海温数据，快速重构海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报方法，以达到对现场温跃层的快速估计。 历史资料分析结果表明，受太阳辐射和风应力的影响，20°N以北研究海域，温跃层季节变化明显，夏季温跃层最浅、最强，冬季相反，温跃层厚度的相位明显滞后于其他变量，其在春季最薄、秋季最厚。12月份到翌年3月份，渤、黄及东海西岸，呈无跃层结构，西北太平洋部分海域从1月到3月份，也基本无跃层结构。在黄海西和东岸以及台湾海峡附近的浅滩海域，由于风力搅拌和潮混合作用，温跃层出现概率常年较低。夏季，海水层化现象在近海陆架海域得到了加强，陆架海域温跃层强度季节性变化幅度(0.31°C/m)明显大于深水区(约0.05°C/m)，而前者温跃层深度和厚度的季节性变化幅度小于后者。20°N以南研究海域，温跃层季节变化不明显。逆温跃层主要出现在冬、春季节（10月-翌年5月）。受长江冲淡水和台湾暖流的影响，东南沿海区域逆温跃层持续时间最长，出现概率最大，而在山东半岛北及东沿岸、朝鲜半岛西及北岸，逆温跃层消长过程似乎和黄海暖流有关。多温跃层结构常年出现于北赤道流及对马暖流区。在黑潮入侵黄、东、南海的区域，多温跃层呈现明显不同的季节变化。在黄海中部，春季多温跃层发生概率高于夏季和秋季，在东海西部，多跃层主要出现在夏季，在南海北部，冬季和春季多温跃层发生概率大于夏季和秋季。这些变化可能主要受海表面温度变化和风力驱动的表层流的影响。 利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国东南沿海逆温跃层结构进行了模拟，模拟结果显示，长江冲淡水的季节性变化以及夏季转向与实际结果符合较好，基本再现了渤、黄、东海海域主要的环流、温盐场以及逆温跃层的分布特征和季节变化。通过数值实验发现，若无长江、黄河淡水输入，则在整个研究海域基本无逆温跃层出现，因此陆源淡水可能是河口附近逆温跃层出现的基本因素之一。长江以及暖流（黑潮和台湾暖流）流量的增加，均可在不同程度上使逆温跃层出现概率及强度、深度和厚度增加，且暖流的影响更加明显。长江对东南沿海逆温跃层的出现，特别是秋季到冬季初期，有明显的影响，使长江口海域逆温跃层位置偏向东南。暖流对于中国东南沿海的逆温跃层结构，特别是初春时期，有较大影响，使长江口海域的逆温跃层位置向东北偏移。 通过对温跃层长期变化分析得出，黄海冷水团区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.8年左右的年际变化及18.9年左右的年代际变化，此变化可能主要表现为对当年夏季和前冬东亚地区大气气温的热力响应。东海冷涡区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.7年的年际变化，在El Nino年为正的强度异常，其可能主要受局地气旋式大气环流变异所影响。谱分析同时表明，该海域夏季温跃层强度还存在33.2年的年代际变化，上世纪70年代中期，温跃层强度由弱转强，而此变化可能与黑潮流量的年代际变化有关。 海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报结果显示，EOF分解的前四个主分量即能够解释原空间点温度距平总方差的95%以上，以海洋表层附近观测资料求解的特征系数推断温度垂直结构分布的结果最稳定。利用东海陆架区、南海深水区和台湾周边海域三个不同区域的实测CTD样本廓线资料，对重构模型的检验结果表明，重构与实测廓线的相关程度超过95%的置信水平。三个区重构与实测温度廓线值的平均误差分别为0.69℃，0.52℃，1.18℃，平均重构廓线误差小于平均气候偏差，统计模式可以很好的估算温度廓线垂直结构。东海陆架海区温度垂直重构廓线与CTD观测廓线获得的温跃层结果对比表明，重构温跃层上界、下界深度和强度的平均绝对误差分别为1.51m、1.36m和0.17℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为24.7%、8.9%和22.6%，虽然温跃层深度和强度的平均相对误差较大，但其绝对误差量值较小。而在南海海区，模型重构温跃层上界、下界和强度的平均绝对预报误差分别为4.1m、27.7m和0.007℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为16.1%、16.8%和9.5%，重构温跃层各特征值的平均相对误差都在20%以内。虽然南海区温跃层下界深度平均绝对预报误差较大，但相对于温跃层下界深度的空间尺度变化而言（平均温跃层下界深度为168m），平均相对误差仅为16.8%。因此说模型重构的温度廓线可以达到对我国陆架海域、深水区温跃层的较好估算。 基于对历史水文温度廓线观测资料的分析及自主温跃层统计预报模型，研制了实时可利用微机简单、快捷地进行温跃层估算及查询的可视化系统，这是迄今进行大范围海域温跃层统计与实时预报研究的较系统成果。

Dynamics of dimethylsulfide and dimethylsulfoniopropionate produced by phytoplankton in the Chinese seas - Distribution patterns and affecting factors

Distribution of dimethylsulfide (DMS) and/or particulate dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSPp) concentrations in the Jiaozhou Bay, Zhifu Bay and East China Sea were investigated during the period of 1994 - 1998. Both DMS and DMSPp levels showed remarkable temporal and spatial variations. High values occurred in the coastal or shelf waters and low values in the offshore waters. The highest levels were observed in spring or summer and lowest in autumn. DMS or DMSPp distribution patterns were associated with water mass on a large geographical scale, while biological and chemical factors were more likely influential on smaller-scale variations. Diatoms could play an important role in total DMS or DMSPp abundance in coastal waters. Nitrate was found to have a two-phase relationship with DMSPp concentrations: positive when nitrate concentration was lower than 1 mumol/L, and negative when it was above. Anthropogenic factors such as sewage input and aquaculture also showed influences on DMS or DMSPp concentration.

湍流大小尺度涡量方程组及其封闭

利用流体大小尺度（LSS）方程组推导出湍流大小尺度涡量（LSSV）方程组，给出两个关于湍流大小尺度涡量的命题，从而得到湍流封闭大小尺度涡量（CLSSV）方程组。同时，对近程相互作用命题进行了推广。

若干流体力学问题的数学性质研究

该文利用高智的扩散抛物化方程组理论及流体力学基本方程组的特征次特征理论,流体大小尺度（LSS）方程组理论以及摄动有限差分（PFD）方法,研究若干流体力学问题的数学性质.该文得到的主要结论有：1.利用湍流大小尺度（LSS）方程组推导出湍流大小尺度涡量（LSSV）方程组,并证明两个关于湍流大小尺度涡量的命题,从而得到湍流封闭大小尺度涡量（CLSSV）方程组,并对已有的近程相互作用命题进行推广.2.根据扩散抛物化方程组理论和流体力学层次结构方程组的特征和次特征方法,研究了抛物化稳定性方程组（PSE）的特征和次特征以及消除PSE的剩余椭圆特性的问题.3.利用摄动有限差分（PFD）方法得到对流扩散反应方程的变步长摄动有限差分格式,是等步长摄动有限差分格式的推广.

生态系统服务功能价值评估—以锡林河流域天然草地生态系统为例

时空尺度和生态系统的健康状况是影响生态系统服务功能的重要因素。锡林河流域天然草地关键的地理位置和独特的生境条件使其具有十分重要的生态意义和经济价值。评估锡林河流域天然草地在不同时空尺度及生态系统健康状况的生态系统服务功能的价值，不仅能够全面客观的评价该流域天然草地的生态服务功能，而且还能够为当地经济政策的制定，经济的建设发展提供科学依据。 本研究以锡林河流域天然草地为例，通过对草地生态系统服务功能价值评估和计算机情景模拟，研究了不同空间尺度及放牧影响锡林河流域天然草地生态系统服务功能价值。对于不同空间尺度下草地生态系统服务价值的研究，根据草地的产草量和退化程度将锡林河流域天然草地划分成5个级别，利用Costanza等的基本思路和方法，进行了价值评估。结果表明锡林河流域草地生态系统每年的服务价值为76.154×108元。受各级草场的生产量和放牧强度的综合影响，健康程度不同的各等级天然草地的单位面积生态系统服务功能的价值存在着很大差异，从1级草地到5级草地，单位面积服务价值比重从38.1%下降到4.8%。参考国际、国内和锡林浩特当地三种不同的生态系统服务单价，计算得出这三种不同空间尺度下锡林河流域天然草场生态系统服务价值分别为：88.199×108元/年、76.154×108元/年、14.236×108元/年，并且各项服务功能在总价值中所占的比例也随空间尺度变化。以气体调节为例，服务价值的比重分别占3.7%、11.0%和7.9%，这说明生态系统服务功能的价值与空间尺度有关。 通过草地生态系统服务功能当量因子得到不同类型草地生态系统单位面积服务价值，研究放牧影响下各类型草地生态系统单位面积服务价值以及年平均累积服务价值。草地生态系统服务功能当量因子说明生态系统各项服务功能不仅与生态系统的生物量有关，同时受到生态系统内环境因子、生物因子、生态系统过程多方面因素的共同作用。最大直接经济价值放牧率大于生态系统服务功能最大时的放牧率，但是获得经济利润小于生态系统服务功能最大时的价值。同时，在各类草地生态系统中单位面积服务价值以贝加尔针茅草原最高为2242.347元/公顷，克氏针茅草原最低为1655.413元/公顷。草地生态系统的累积服务价值在时间范围一定时随放牧率变化明显，并且时间范围越大变化越大。重牧状态下的草地生态系统累积服务价值最低，且随时间的增加而减少;无牧、轻牧和中牧状态下草地生态系统的累积服务价值则随时间的延续而增长。以上结果说明放牧对草地生态系统服务功能有显著影响，以经济利益为目的获得最大利润的放牧方式带来的经济价值是短期的，从长远看，只有科学管理，合理放牧，才能使草地生态系统长期稳定的提供最佳的生态系统服务功能。

景观边界研究概况

Landscape boundaries are the heterogeneous regions between different homogeneous landscapes at certain temporal and spatial scale. In this paper, the progress of research on landscape boundary was briefly reviewed. Research contents are mainly focused on the following aspects: ①Biodiversity, ②Response of landscape boundary to climatic change, ③Effects of disturbance on landscape boundary, ④ Functions of landscape boundary, ⑤ The relationships between landscape boundaries and abiotic factors, ⑥Indicators of landscape boundary, ⑦ Causes and determination of landscape boundary. In addition, more and more attentions have been paid to the research on riparian. By analyzing the current research status, the development trend of landscape boundary research was proposed, namely, the formation and maintenance mechanism of landscape boundary, its prediction and research on the boundary between surface water and ground water.

基于GIS实现的中国土壤侵蚀背景数据库若干技术问题

建立准确可靠、精确可用的中国土壤侵蚀背景数据库是进行全国或区域范围内土壤侵蚀定量评价及土壤侵蚀时空特征研究的基础工作,也是其重要的手段和途径。就小比例尺全国土壤侵蚀背景数据库的建立过程,探讨了该类数据库在ARC/INFO软件系统上实现的技术方法,以及数据精确程度的控制问题。

基于ER Mapper的水土流失地形因子提取技术初探

介绍了新一代图像处理系统ERMapper及其应用 ,分析了不同空间尺度下影响水土流失的地形因子。针对ERMapper的图像处理功能 ,对地形因子的提取技术进行了初步探讨 ,并取得了一定成果

我国区域土壤侵蚀与环境研究述评

区域土壤侵蚀与环境研究,是在比较大的中间尺度和较长的时间尺度上,对土壤侵蚀发生发展过程、土壤侵蚀因子、土壤侵蚀定量评价方法,以及土壤侵蚀治理对环境的影响进行研究的科学与技术体系。该领域的研究,即能直接为国家水土保持宏观决策提供支持,又能揭示土壤侵蚀的宏观规律,并于全球变化研究相联系。我国在该领域的研究主要概括四个方面,包括:①区域土壤侵蚀因子研究,是为认识土壤侵蚀环境特征和进行土壤侵蚀定量评价的基础,②区域土壤侵蚀评价研究,包括调查制图、定性评价和定量评价等,是该研究服务于水土保持实践的基本途径;③水土保持的环境效应研究,是从另外一个视角对土壤侵蚀环境与水土流失及其治理关系的认识。是确切评估水土保持效益,保证水土保持工作健康持续稳定发展的基础。今后应尽快开发区域水土流失定量评价模型,并在区域尺度上对环境效应的方式、范围、程度和发展趋势做出综合计价和分析预测。

Black carbon and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in surface sediments of China's marginal seas

This study investigates the distribution of black carbon (BC) and its correlation with total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (I PAH) pound in the surface sediments of China's marginal seas. BC content ranges from < 0.10 to 2.45 mg/g dw (grams dry weight) in the sediments studied, and varied among the different coastal regions. The Bohai Bay sediments had the highest BC contents (average 2.18 mg/g dw), which comprises a significant fraction (27%-41%) of the total organic carbon (TOC) preserved in the sediments. In comparison, BC in the surface sediments of the North Yellow Sea, Jiaozhou Bay, East China Sea and the South China Sea is less abundant and accounted for an average of 6%, 8%, 14% and 5%, respectively, of the sedimentary organic carbon pool. The concentration of I PAH pound in the surface sediments ranges from 41 to 3 667 ng/g dw and showed large spatial variations among the sampling sites of different costal regions. The Bohai Bay has the highest I PAH pound values, ranging from 79 to 3 667 ng/g dw. This reflects the high anthropogenically contaminated nature of the sediments in the bay. BC is positively correlated to TOC but a strong correlation is not found between BC and I PAH pound in the surface sediments studied, suggesting that BC and PAHs preserved in the sediments are derived from different sources and controlled by different biogeochemical processes. Our study suggests that the abundance of BC preserved in the sediments could represent a significant sink pool of carbon cycling in China's marginal seas.

Reconstruction of vertical thermal structure from several subsurface temperatures in the China Seas and adjacent waters

Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is used in this study to generate main eigenvector fields of historical temperature for the China Seas (here referring to Chinese marine territories) and adjacent waters from 1930 to 2002 (510 143 profiles). A good temperature profile is reconstructed based on several subsurface in situ temperature observations and the thermocline was estimated using the model. The results show that: 1) For the study area, the former four principal components can explain 95% of the overall variance, and the vertical distribution of temperature is most stable using the in situ temperature observations near the surface. 2) The model verifications based on the observed CTD data from the East China Sea (ECS), South China Sea (SCS) and the areas around Taiwan Island show that the reconstructed profiles have high correlation with the observed ones with the confidence level > 95%, especially to describe the characteristics of the thermocline well. The average errors between the reconstructed and observed profiles in these three areas are 0.69A degrees C, 0.52A degrees C and 1.18A degrees C respectively. It also shows the model RMS error is less than or close to the climatological error. The statistical model can be used to well estimate the temperature profile vertical structure. 3) Comparing the thermocline characteristics between the reconstructed and observed profiles, the results in the ECS show that the average absolute errors are 1.5m, 1.4 m and 0.17A degrees C/m, and the average relative errors are 24.7%, 8.9% and 22.6% for the upper, lower thermocline boundaries and the gradient, respectively. Although the relative errors are obvious, the absolute error is small. In the SCS, the average absolute errors are 4.1 m, 27.7 m and 0.007A degrees C/m, and the average relative errors are 16.1%, 16.8% and 9.5% for the upper, lower thermocline boundaries and the gradient, respectively. The average relative errors are all < 20%. Although the average absolute error of the lower thermocline boundary is considerable, but contrast to the spatial scale of average depth of the lower thermocline boundary (165 m), the average relative error is small (16.8%). Therefore the model can be used to well estimate the thermocline.