Climate change, sea level rise and integrated coastal zone management: An IPCC approach

Expansion of economic activities, urbanisation, increased resource use and population growth are continuously increasing the vulnerability of the coastal zone. This vulnerability is now further raised by the threat of climate change and accelerated sea level rise. The potentially severe impacts force policy-makers to also consider long-term planning for climate change and sea level rise. For reasons of efficiency and effectiveness this long-term planning should be integrated with existing short-term plans, thus creating an Integrated Coastal Zone Management programme. As a starting point for coastal zone management, the assessment of a country's or region's vulnerability to accelerated sea level rise is of utmost importance. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a common methodology for this purpose. Studies carried out according to this Common Methodology have been compared and combined, from which general conclusions on local, regional and global vulnerability have been drawn, the latter in the form of a Global Vulnerability Assessment. In order to address the challenge of coping with climate change and accelerated sea level rise, it is essential to foresee the possible impacts, and to take precautionary action. Because of the long lead times needed for creating the required technical and institutional infrastructures, such action should be taken in the short term. Furthermore, it should be part of a broader coastal zone management and planning context. This will require a holistic view, shared by the different institutional levels that exist, along which different needs and interests should be balanced.

长白山地区近50年气候变化及其预估

收集长白山地区15个气象站1953-2007年气温、降水、蒸发、日照时数和水汽压观测数据和国家气候中心整理的2001-2099年的 气温、降水预估资料，利用数理统计方法，系统分析长白山地区气候现状、变化及其预估，为气候变化对人类生存环境影响研究并制定适应对策提供依据。主要结论如下： 1.长白山地区气温、降水日数、日照时数和不同界限温度（≥0℃、≥5℃、≥10℃和<0℃）积温均有显著趋势。年极端最低、年平均、平均最高/最低气温和气温日/年较差在1984、1992、1995、1985、1972和1979年发生突变。所有最高/最低气温与日照百分率有显著负相关关系，一定程度是温室效应结果；最高、最低气温变化不同步造成气温日较差和年较差的非对称性。 2.长白山地区生长季节合计降水量和降水强度日际变化较大。降水以7月30日为界，呈现前升后降极显著的线性趋势，且发生均值突变。降水强度以6月27日和9月3日为分界点，分为三个阶段。降水集中度、集中期和集中时段时空非均一性分布明显。 3.在SRES A1B、SRES A2和SRES B1三种情景下年平均气温均为上升趋势，年内变化一致为冬季升温最迅速，夏季则相对缓慢；而年降水强度总体增加，年内变化比较一致：冬季增加最为明显，而夏季变化不大。 4.未来长白山地区各站≥0℃、≥5℃和≥10℃的积温均有不同程度增加，持续时间延长。负积温增加，持续时间缩短，开始日期推迟，而结束时间提前。