基于广义模型和分类回归树的中国常见树种地理分布模拟研究

研究植被、物种分布与环境的关系一直是生态学中的重点。长期以来，在全球变化与陆地生态系统的研究中，主要研究重点是对大尺度植被分布的模拟和预测，并建立了大量的气候－植被分布关系模型。而对于物种潜在分布的模拟和预测，国内外相关的研究较少。近年来，随着统计技术和地理信息系统的发展，用于预测物种分布的统计模型技术得到了迅速的发展。统计模型技术已被广泛应用于生物地理分布、植物群落、生物多样性、气候变化影响评估等方面。 本论文基于当前在物种分布研究中应用广泛的广义线性模型、广义加法模型及分类回归树3种统计模型技术，对我国常见树种的地理分布进行模拟分析，并比较不同模型模拟精度的优劣，将模拟精度较高的模型应用于预测未来气候情景下我国几种主要树种的未来潜在地理分布。 基于建立的广义线性模型（GLM）、二次项逐步回归广义线性模型（SGLM）、广义加法模型（GAM）和分类回归树（CART）4个模型对我国20种常见树种地理分布进行模拟，结果表明，4个模型均有较高的模拟精度。GAM的模拟精度最高;添加二次项并进行逐步回归有效的提高了GLM的模拟精度;CART是一种基于规则的模型技术，模拟结果比GLM稍好，比GAM略差。 对不同树种的模拟分析表明，4个模型对于主要分布在暖温带落叶阔叶林区域的油松、辽东栎分布的模拟结果较差;GLM对分布在温带针阔混交林中红松、蒙古栎、胡桃楸和糠椴的模拟结果不太理想;4个模型对分布在中国亚热带常绿阔叶林区域的树种均表现出较高的模拟精度;对广布种也表现出很高的模拟精度。 结合地理信息系统，以地图形式将青冈、油松的模拟结果表示出来。结果表明：地理信息系统直观的反映出了模型模拟结果差异。4个模型均能很好模拟青冈的分布，且模拟结果接近;而对油松分布模拟结果4个模型均不甚理想，以GLM最差。这些结果与模型模拟评估结果相吻合。 在未来气候变化情景下，基于4个模型模拟结果优劣，以我国三种主要造林树种马尾松、油松、红松和两种常见树种青冈、蒙古栎为研究对象，分析其未来变化趋势。结果表明，未来气候变化情景下，对于马尾松而言，4个模型均预测马尾松在基本保持原有分布的基础上，其未来潜在分布区域均有所扩大，且有向西和向北扩展的趋势;对于油松而言，基于GLM、SGLM和GAM3个模型，油松的未来潜在分布除有北移的趋势外，其分布区还将向东北和西南两个方向扩展;对于红松而言，基于SGLM、GAM和CART3个模型的预测结果较为接近，即红松的未来潜在分布区域将有所减少;对蒙古栎而言，4个模型预测蒙古栎未来分布均将向西扩展;对青冈而言，4个模型预测青冈能基本保持其原有分布区，并向西和向北扩展，其中CART预测结果还表明，青冈在广东南部及广西南部的分布区域将消失。

Roles of equatorial waves and western boundary reflection in the seasonal circulation of the equatorial Indian Ocean

An ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is used to study the roles of equatorial waves and western boundary reflection in the seasonal circulation of the equatorial Indian Ocean. The western boundary reflection is defined as the total Kelvin waves leaving the western boundary, which include the reflection of the equatorial Rossby waves as well as the effects of alongshore winds, off-equatorial Rossby waves, and nonlinear processes near the western boundary. The evaluation of the reflection is based on a wave decomposition of the OGCM results and experiments with linear models. It is found that the alongshore winds along the east coast of Africa and the Rossby waves in the off-equatorial areas contribute significantly to the annual harmonics of the equatorial Kelvin waves at the western boundary. The semiannual harmonics of the Kelvin waves, on the other hand, originate primarily from a linear reflection of the equatorial Rossby waves. The dynamics of a dominant annual oscillation of sea level coexisting with the dominant semiannual oscillations of surface zonal currents in the central equatorial Indian Ocean are investigated. These sea level and zonal current patterns are found to be closely related to the linear reflections of the semiannual harmonics at the meridional boundaries. Because of the reflections, the second baroclinic mode resonates with the semiannual wind forcing; that is, the semiannual zonal currents carried by the reflected waves enhance the wind-forced currents at the central basin. Because of the different behavior of the zonal current and sea level during the reflections, the semiannual sea levels of the directly forced and reflected waves cancel each other significantly at the central basin. In the meantime, the annual harmonic of the sea level remains large, producing a dominant annual oscillation of sea level in the central equatorial Indian Ocean. The linear reflection causes the semiannual harmonics of the incoming and reflected sea levels to enhance each other at the meridional boundaries. In addition, the weak annual harmonics of sea level in the western basin, resulting from a combined effect of the western boundary reflection and the equatorial zonal wind forcing, facilitate the dominance by the semiannual harmonics near the western boundary despite the strong local wind forcing at the annual period. The Rossby waves are found to have a much larger contribution to the observed equatorial semiannual oscillations of surface zonal currents than the Kelvin waves. The westward progressive reversal of seasonal surface zonal currents along the equator in the observations is primarily due to the Rossby wave propagation.

小波域地震资料的处理方法（WSSP）研究

The modeling formula based on seismic wavelet can well simulate zero - phase wavelet and hybrid-phase wavelet, and approximate maximal - phase and minimal - phase wavelet in a certain sense. The modeling wavelet can be used as wavelet function after suitable modification item added to meet some conditions. On the basis of the modified Morlet wavelet, the derivative wavelet function has been derived. As a basic wavelet, it can be sued for high resolution frequency - division processing and instantaneous feature extraction, in acoordance with the signal expanding characters in time and scale domains by each wavelet structured. Finally, an application example proves the effectiveness and reasonability of the method. Based on the analysis of SVD (Singular Value Decomposition) filter, by taking wavelet as basic wavelet and combining SVD filter and wavelet transform, a new de - noising method, which is Based on multi - dimension and multi-space de - noising method, is proposed. The implementation of this method is discussed the detail. Theoretical analysis and modeling show that the method has strong capacity of de - noising and keeping attributes of effective wave. It is a good tool for de - noising when the S/N ratio is poor. To give prominence to high frequency information of reflection event of important layer and to take account of other frequency information under processing seismic data, it is difficult for deconvolution filter to realize this goal. A filter from Fourier Transform has some problems for realizing the goal. In this paper, a new method is put forward, that is a method of processing seismic data in frequency division from wavelet transform and reconstruction. In ordinary seismic processing methods for resolution improvement, deconvolution operator has poor part characteristics, thus influencing the operator frequency. In wavelet transform, wavelet function has very good part characteristics. Frequency - division data processing in wavelet transform also brings quite good high resolution data, but it needs more time than deconvolution method does. On the basis of frequency - division processing method in wavelet domain, a new technique is put forward, which involves 1) designing filter operators equivalent to deconvolution operator in time and frequency domains in wavelet transform, 2) obtaining derivative wavelet function that is suitable to high - resolution seismic data processing, and 3) processing high resolution seismic data by deconvolution method in time domain. In the method of producing some instantaneous characteristic signals by using Hilbert transform, Hilbert transform is very sensitive to high - frequency random noise. As a result, even though there exist weak high - frequency noises in seismic signals, the obtained instantaneous characteristics of seismic signals may be still submerged by the noises. One method for having instantaneous characteristics of seismic signals in wavelet domain is put forward, which obtains directly the instantaneous characteristics of seismic signals by taking the characteristics of both the real part (real signals, namely seismic signals) and the imaginary part (the Hilbert transfom of real signals) of wavelet transform. The method has the functions of frequency division and noise removal. What is more, the weak wave whose frequency is lower than that of high - frequency random noise is retained in the obtained instantaneous characteristics of seismic signals, and the weak wave may be seen in instantaneous characteristic sections (such as instantaneous frequency, instantaneous phase and instantaneous amplitude). Impedance inversion is one of tools in the description of oil reservoir. one of methods in impedance inversion is Generalized Linear Inversion. This method has higher precision of inversion. But, this method is sensitive to noise of seismic data, so that error results are got. The description of oil reservoir in researching important geological layer, in order to give prominence to geological characteristics of the important layer, not only high frequency impedance to research thin sand layer, but other frequency impedance are needed. It is difficult for some impedance inversion method to realize the goal. Wavelet transform is very good in denoising and processing in frequency division. Therefore, in the paper, a method of impedance inversion is put forward based on wavelet transform, that is impedance inversion in frequency division from wavelet transform and reconstruction. in this paper, based on wavelet transform, methods of time - frequency analysis is given. Fanally, methods above are in application on real oil field - Sansan oil field.

降雨触发滑坡的非线性模型与斜坡演化的混沌效应

This paper analyzes landsliding process by nonlinear theories, especially the influence mechanism of external factors (such as rainfall and groundwater) on slope evolution. The author investigates landslide as a consequence of the catastrophic slide of initially stationary or creeping slope triggered by a small perturbation. A fully catastrophe analysis is done for all possible scenarios when a continuous change is imposed to the control parameters. As the slip surface continues and erosion due to rainfall occurs, control parameters of the slip surface may evolve such that a previously stable slope may become unstable (e.g. catastrophe occurs), when a small perturbation is imposed. Thus the present analysis offers a plausible explanation to why slope failure occurs at a particular rainfall, which is not the largest in the history of the slope. It is found, by analysis on the nonlinear dynamical model of the evolution process of slope built, that the relationship between the action of external environment factors and the response of the slope system is complicatedly nonlinear. When the nonlinear action of slope itself is equivalent to the acting ability of external environment, the chaotic phenomenon appears in the evolution process of slope, and its route leading to chaos is realized with bifurcation of period-doublings. On the basis of displacement time series of the slope, a nonlinear dynamic model is set up by improved Backus generalized linear inversion theory in this paper. Due to the equivalence between autonomous gradient system and catastrophe model, a standard cusp catastrophe model can be obtained through variable substitution. The method is applied to displacement data of Huangci landslide and Wolongsi landslide, to show how slopes evolve before landsliding. There is convincing statistical evidence to believe that the nonlinear dynamic model can make satisfied prediction results. Most important of all, we find that there is a sudden fall of D, which indicates the occurrence of catastrophe (when D=0).

Deformation Of Pdms Membrane And Microcantilever By A Water Droplet: Comparison Between Mooney-Rivlin And Linear Elastic Constitutive Models

In this paper, we studied the role of vertical component Of Surface tension of a water droplet on the deformation of membranes and microcantilevers (MCLs) widely used in lab-on-a-chip and micro-and nano-electromechanical system (MEMS/NEMS). Firstly, a membrane made of a rubber-like material, poly(dimethylsiloxane) (PDMS), was considered. The deformation was investigated using the Mooney-Rivlin (MR) model and the linear elastic constitutive relation, respectively. By comparison between the numerical solutions with two different models, we found that the simple linear elastic model is accurate enough to describe such kind of problem, which would be quite convenient for engineering applications. Furthermore, based on small-deflection beam theory, the effect of a liquid droplet on the deflection of a MCL was also studied. The free-end deflection of the MCL was investigated by considering different cases like a cylindrical droplet, a spherical droplet centered on the MCL and a spherical droplet arbitrarily positioned on the MCL. Numerical simulations demonstrated that the deflection might not be neglected, and showed good agreement with our theoretical analyses. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.