黄土丘陵区纸坊沟流域农业生态经济安全评价

以近70年纸坊沟流域农业生态经济系统演变过程为基础,利用国家"九五"科技攻关项目中所提出的评价指标体系,对纸坊沟流域不同发展阶段标志年份的农业生态经济安全状况进行了评价,得出:农业生态经济系统在1938、2000、2005年处于亚安全状态,1958、1975年处于极端不安全状态,1985、19901、995年处于不安全状态。通过对农业生态经济安全变化驱动力的分析,预测了纸坊沟流域农业生态经济安全的发展趋势,提出了黄土丘陵区实现农业生态经济安全的策略:以培育主导产业为中心,完善农业系统循环链网,调整产业结构,实现农业资源的有效、永续利用。

Analysis of spatio-temporal dynamic pattern and driving forces of urban land in China in 1990s using TM images and GIS

China has witnessed fast urban growth in the recent decade. This study analyzes spatio-temporal characteristics of urban expansion in China using satellite images and regionalization methods. Landsat TM images at three time periods, 1990/1991, 1995/1996, and 1999/2000, are interpreted to get 1:100000 vector land use datasets. The study calculates the urban land percentage and urban land expansion index of every 1 km(2) cell throughout China. The study divides China into 27 urban regions to conceive dynamic patterns of urban land changes. Urban development was achieving momentum in the western region, expanding more noticeably than in the previous five years, and seeing an increased growth percentage. Land use dynamic changes reflect the strong impacts of economic growth environments and macro-urban development policies. The paper helps to distinguish the influences of newly market-oriented forces from traditional administrative controls on China's urban expansion. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of plateau zokors on vegetation characteristics and productivity of alpine meadow

This research was conducted on alpine meadow site at Menyuan county, Qinghai Province, People's Republic of China to determine the effects of native, subterranean rodent of Qinghai-Tibet grasslands, the plateau zokors (Myospalax baileyi), on seasonal above-and below-ground plant biomass, plant species diversity and productivity. Both total peaks of above-and below-ground biomass were the greatest (413.600 g/m~2 and 2297.502 g/m~2) in the patch no any plateau zokors colonized by plateau zokors over 10 years in August and October, respectively. Both above-and below-ground biomass were significantly increased in the patches where plateau zokors were removed or the burrow systems were abandoned for five years compared to the patches plateau zokors colonized over 10 years. However, both above-and below-ground biomass in abandoned patches were significantly lower than that in uncolonized patches. Monocotyledonous biomass was reduced greatly, but the non-palatable dicots were significantly increased in colonized patches. The palatable biomass of monocots and dicots were increased in abandoned patches. Total plant species diversity was the greatest in uncolonized patchesand least in abandoned patch. The total net primary production in colonized patches was reduced by 68.98% compared with uncolonized patches. Although the patches were without any plateau zokors disturbance for fives years, the total net primary production just reached 58.69% of the uncolonized patches. The above-ground net primary production in abandoned patches increased 28.74% and the below-ground increased 54.91% compared with the colonized patches. We suggest that plateau zokor-induced changes in plant above- and below-ground biomass and species diversity may lead to further alterations of nutrient cycling and trophic dynamics in this alpine meadow ecosystem.

东营凹陷中央隆起带次生油藏成藏机制和预测

It is the key project of SINOPEC at ninth five years period with a lot of work and very difficult, which the main object are the study of pool-forming mechanism, distribution rule and pool-forming model of complex secondary pool at Dongying formation in high mature exploration area, and building theories and methods of research, description and prediction of secondary fault block pool. This paper apply comprehensively with various theories, method and techniques of geology, seismic, well log, reservoir engineering, meanwhile apply with computer means, then adopt combination of quality and quantitative to develop studies of pool-forming mechanism, model and pool prediction of fault block pool. On the based of stretch, strike-slip, reversal structure theories, integrated the geometry, kinematics, and dynamics of structure, it is show that the structure framework, the structure evolve, formation mechanism of central uplift belt of Dongying depression and control to formation and distribute of secondary complex fault block pool. The opening and sealing properties, sealing mechanism and sealing models of pool-controlling fault are shown by using quality, direction of normal stress, relations between interface and rock of two sides of fault and shale smear factor (SSF), as well as the juxtaposition of fault motion stage and hydrocarbon migration, etc. The sealing history of controlling fault, formation mechanism and distribute the regulation are established by combining together with bury history, structure evolve history, fault growth history stress field evolve history, which can be guide exploration and production oil field. It were bring up for the first time the dynamics mechanism of Dongying central uplift which were the result of compound tress field of stretch, strike-slip and reversal, companion with reversal drag structure, arcogenesis of paste and salt beds. The dual function of migration and sealing of fault were demonstrated in the research area. The ability of migration and sealing oil of pool-controlling fault is controlled by those factors of style of fault combination, activity regulation and intensity of fault at the period of oil migration. The four kinds of sealing model of pool-controlling fault were established in the research area, which the sealing mechanism of fault and distribution regulation of oil in time and space. The sealing ability of fault were controlled by quality, direction of normal stress, relations between interface and rock of two sides of fault and shale smear factor (SSF), as well as the juxtaposition of fault motion stage and hydrocarbon migration, etc. The fuzzy judge of fault sealing is the base of prediction of secondary pool. The pool-forming model of secondary was established in the research area, which the main factors are ability migration and sealing. The transform zone of fault, inner of arc fault and the compound area of multi fault are enrichment region of secondary pool of Dongying formation, which are confirm by exploration with economic performance and social performance.

单（多）井抽灌对浅部地温场的影响研究

The technique of energy extraction using groundwater source heat pumps, as a sustainable way of low-grade thermal energy utilization, has widely been used since mid-1990's. Based on the basic theories of groundwater flow and heat transfer and by employing two analytic models, the relationship of the thermal breakthrough time for a production well with the effect factors involved is analyzed and the impact of heat transfer by means of conduction and convection, under different groundwater velocity conditions, on geo-temperature field is discussed.A mathematical model, coupling the equations for groundwater flow with those for heat transfer, was developed. The impact of energy mining using a single well system of supplying and returning water on geo-temperature field under different hydrogeological conditions, well structures, withdraw-and-reinjection rates, and natural groundwater flow velocities was quantitatively simulated using the finite difference simulator HST3D. Theoretical analyses of the simulated results were also made. The simulated results of the single well system indicate that neither the permeability nor the porosity of a homogeneous aquifer has significant effect on the temperature of the production segment provided that the production and injection capability of each well in the aquifers involved can meet the designed value. If there exists a lower permeable interlayer, compared with the main aquifer, between the production and injection segments, the temperature changes of the production segment will decrease. The thicker the interlayer and the lower the interlayer permeability, the longer the thermal breakthrough time of the production segment and the smaller the temperature changes of the production segment. According to the above modeling, it can also be found that with the increase of the aquifer thickness, the distance between the production and injection screens, and/or the regional groundwater flow velocity, and/or the decrease of the production-and-reinjection rate, the temperature changes of the production segment decline. For an aquifer of a constant thickness, continuously increase the screen lengths of production and injection segments may lead to the decrease of the distance between the production and injection screens, and the temperature changes of the production segment will increase, consequently.According to the simulation results of the single well system, the parameters, that can cause significant influence on heat transfer as well as geo-temperature field, were chosen for doublet system simulation. It is indicated that the temperature changes of the pumping well will decrease as the aquifer thickness, the distance between the well pair and/or the screen lengths of the doublet increase. In the case of a low permeable interlayer embedding in the main aquifer, if the screens of the pumping and the injection wells are installed respectively below and above the interlayer, the temperature changes of the pumping well will be smaller than that without the interlay. The lower the permeability of the interlayer, the smaller the temperature changes. The simulation results also indicate that the lower the pumping-and-reinjection rate, the greater the temperature changes of the pumping well. It can also be found that if the producer and the injector are chosen reasonably, the temperature changes of the pumping well will decline as the regional groundwater flow velocity increases. Compared with the case that the groundwater flow direction is perpendicular to the well pair, if the regional flow is directed from the pumping well to the injection well, the temperature changes of the pumping well is relatively smaller.Based on the above simulation study, a case history was conducted using the data from an operating system in Beijing. By means of the conceptual model and the mathematical model, a 3-D simulation model was developed and the hydrogeological parameters and the thermal properties were calibrated. The calibrated model was used to predict the evolution of the geo-temperature field for the next five years. The simulation results indicate that the calibrated model can represent the hydrogeological conditions and the nature of the aquifers. It can also be found that the temperature fronts in high permeable aquifers move very fast and the radiuses of temperature influence are large. Comparatively, the temperature changes in clay layers are smaller and there is an obvious lag of the temperature changes. According to the current energy mining load, the temperature of the pumping wells will increase by 0.7°C at the end of the next five years. The above case study may provide reliable base for the scientific management of the operating system studied.

社会形势预警的几种建模方法比较

Based on social survey data conducted by local research group in some counties executed in the nearly past five years in China, the author proposed and solved two kernel problems in the field of social situation forecasting: i) How can the attitudes’ data on individual level be integrated with social situation data on macrolevel; ii) How can the powers of forecasting models’ constructed by different statistic methods be compared? Five integrative statistics were applied to the research: 1) algorithm average (MEAN); 2) standard deviation (SD); 3) coefficient variability (CV); 4) mixed secondary moment (M2); 5) Tendency (TD). To solve the former problem, the five statistics were taken to synthesize the individual and mocrolevel data of social situations on the levels of counties’ regions, and form novel integrative datasets, from the basis of which, the latter problem was accomplished by the author: modeling methods such as Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA), Discriminant Analysis (DA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were used to construct several forecasting models. Meanwhile, on the dimensions of stepwise vs. enter, short-term vs. long-term forecasting and different integrative (statistic) models, meta-analysis and power analysis were taken to compare the predicting power of each model within and among modeling methods. Finally, it can be concluded from the research of the dissertation: 1) Exactly significant difference exists among different integrative (statistic) models, in which, tendency (TD) integrative models have the highest power, but coefficient variability (CV) ones have the lowest; 2) There is no significant difference of the power between stepwise and enter models as well as short-term and long-term forecasting models; 3) There is significant difference among models constructed by different methods, of which, support vector machine (SVM) has the highest statistic power. This research founded basis in all facets for exploring the optimal forecasting models of social situation’s more deeply, further more, it is the first time methods of meta-analysis and power analysis were immersed into the assessments of such forecasting models.

通过对心理学期刊的几项统计分析看我国十年来儿童发展教育心理学研究状况与动向

In this study, bibliometric method was usded in the investigation of 2274 papers concerning child developmental and educational psychology, which were published during the ten years of 1979-1988, in 14 psychological journals and 97 other scientific journals. According to the quantitative and qualitative analyses, the results are as follows: 1979-1988 saw the rapid development and prosperous period in China's child developmental and educational psychology, During which more papers were published and more fields couched than in the psvious thirty years. The number of literature publications increased and went to the peak in 1983 and 1984, and came down since 1985. The trend was found to result from the decrease in popular science introductions of psychology, which reflected that a heat of psychology had appeared in 1983 and started to cool in 1985. At the mean time, the number of research reports had been holding a steady increase by 1987 and decreased obviously in 1988, especially in the fields of cognitive and social development. There could be several possible explanations of this phenonemon: Piagetian studies are becoming fewer and the eakening of Piaget's influence might predict a period of standstill in the field of developmental psychology in China; As researches become more and more difficult, researchers have turned to be more cautious in lay out their reports; the cutdown of fees and staff could also be one of reasons for less publication in 1988. As the factors mentioned above still exist and their influences last, the number of papers are not expected to increase in the near future. The field of thinking and menory is closely connected with that of artificial intelligence. The downhill situations in these two fileds should be taken seriously. 2. The types of research work are divided on the bases of their problem raising. The trends show that the deepening studies, which represent a comaratively higher level of exploration, are waving fewer, while repeated studies and creative studies are becoming more as the years go along. This fact is worth being further analysed. Big progress could be seen from research methods. The methods currently used are mainly experiment, psychological measurement and assessment, and theoretical reasoning. There is a rapid increase of research by using scales. Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, Binet Scale and Baley Scale have been revised andstandardized. Chinese researchers have also developed several good scales of their own, some of which are valuable and need to be standardized. In the papers investigated, the amount of citation is significantly lower than the world average level as well as the average citation number of whole China's scientific literature. Among the papers cited, most are of Chinese and English languages, and only a small rate were published in resently five years. The renewal of literature cited seems to stay at a low level in the ten years. Tremendous work could be reflected by the number of subjects used the research work in those ten years: 362665. A lot of studies piled on the period of 4-16 year olds. Compared with the previous thirty years, the age range was much enlarged and there were quite a few studies about preschool, school and adolescent periods. The study of newborn of 0-3 has been a weak point so far and it is a field to which chinese developmental psychologists should pay more attention. The progress in using statistics is one of the most obvious part in the development in the research work of child developmental and educational psychology. The one tendency that should be awared and avoid is to put the cart before the horse: seeking for more sophisticated statistic method while neglecting the meanings of research problems. 3. Citation analysis was used in selecting scholars who had great influence in the field of child developmental and educational psychology. Among the often cited and famous scholars, 31 are Chinese researchers and 12 are Western psychologists. The authoritative journal for child developmental psychology and educational psychology is Acta Psychologica Sinica.