Equatorial pacific SSTA-related decadal variations of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate

Based on analysis of NCEP reanalysis data and SST indices of the recent 50 years, decadal changes of the potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies were investigated. Autocorrelation of Nino3 SST anomalies (SSTA) and correlation between atmospheric anomalies fields and Nino3 SSTA exhibit obvious variation in different decades, which indicates that Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies has significant decadal changes. Time around 1977 is not only a shift point of climate on the interdecadal time scale but also a catastrophe point of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate. As a whole, ENSO and the PNA pattern in boreal winter are more predictable in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s, while the Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of the Indian monsoon and the East Asian Monsoon is lower in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s.

The Obduction of Equatorial 13 degrees C Water in the Pacific Identified by a Simulated Passive Tracer

The obduction of equatorial 13 degrees C Water in the Pacific is investigated using a simulated passive tracer of the Consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO). The result shows that the 13 degrees C Water initialized in the region 8 degrees N-8 degrees S, 130 degrees-90 degrees W enters the surface mixed layer in the eastern tropical Pacific, mainly through upwelling near the equator, in the Costa Rica Dome, and along the coast of Peru. Approximately two-thirds of this obduction occurs within 10 years after the 13 degrees C Water being initialized, with the upper portion of the water mass reaching the surface mixed layer in only about a month. The obduction of the 13 degrees C Water helps to maintain a cool sea surface temperature year-round, equivalent to a surface heat flux of about -6.0 W m(-2) averaged over the eastern tropical Pacific (15 degrees S-15 degrees N, 130 degrees W-eastern boundary) for the period of integration (1993-2006). During El Nino years, when the thermocline deepens as a consequence of the easterly wind weakening, the obduction of the 13 degrees C Water is suppressed, and the reduced vertical entrainment generates a warming anomaly of up to 10 W m(-2) in the eastern tropical Pacific and in particular along the coast of Peru, providing explanations for the warming of sea surface temperature that cannot be accounted for by local winds alone. The situation is reversed during La Nina years.