基于RS和GIS的四川省土地利用/覆盖变化及可持续利用研究

LUCC是全球变化研究的核心主题之一，也是社会经济可持续发展的关键问题。改革开放后四川的社会经济发展非常快，在各种因素的驱动下，土地利用/覆盖发生了深刻变化。目前四川省缺乏基于实际调查数据的、全域性的、具有连续时间序列的LUCC和驱动力分析及土地可持续利用研究成果，这对我们从全局上把握全省土地利用现状、发展变化趋势，利用土地政策参与宏观调控，实现长期可持续发展目标，建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会极为不利。本研究针对这一问题，选取全川八大土地利用类型作为研究对象，研究了全省1996年到2006年的土地利用/覆盖格局和变化情况，分析了不同尺度的驱动因素，对全省农用地和建设用地的集约利用状况、潜力进行了分析评价，并提出相应的对策措施。 1．1996年-2006年10年来整个省域的土地利用/覆盖格局变化。 （1）1996年-2006年全省的土地利用/覆盖格局 1996年，全省是一个以农用地为主的土地利用/覆盖格局，林地和牧草地属于优势覆盖类型（合占69.17%），居民点及工矿用地和交通用地合占只有3%左右。 2000年的LUCC格局较为明显的特点是耕地所占比重下降0.4个百分点，水域和未利用土地所占比重有所下降，牧草地保持不变，其余地类所占比重有所上升。 与2000年相比，2004年林草地的优势格局进一步得到强化（合占比重达到70.23%）。耕地面积占幅员面积的比重下降0.83个百分点，略有下降的有未利用土地、水域和牧草地。值得关注的是在“退耕还林还草”的大背景下，牧草地占幅员面积的比重下降0.04个百分点。 到2006年，仍为林草地为主导优势的格局，二者合占上升0.15%。在城市化快速推进的背景下，居民点及工矿用地中的城市用地和建制镇用地占比重超过15%，农村居民点占比重降至76%。交通用地中农村道路占比重降至57.8%,公路用地占比重升至37.5%。五个地貌区的土地利用/覆盖格局与全省的变化基本一致。值得关注的是盆西平原区的交通用地上升幅度和盆地丘陵区的未利用土地的开发利用力度明显大于其它地貌区。 （2）1996-2006年10年间土地利用/覆盖格局的变化 1996-2000年4年间，耕地、水域和未利用地三个地类下降，年均减少0.75、0.19和0.32个百分点。其中耕地年均减少49229.0公顷，约一半流向林地，13.77%流向园地，约20%流向建设用地。另外5个地类面积增长，增长绝对量最大的是林地，年均增长40063.7公顷，交通用地增幅最大，4年年均增长达1.95%。 2001-2004年是西部大开发逐步推进、“退耕还林还草”项目全面展开和土地整理深入实施的关键期，LUCC更为深刻。耕地、未利用地、水域和牧草地四个地类面积下降，其余地类按增长幅度依次是园地、交通用地、居民点及工矿用地和林地。耕地加速下降，年均降幅达到1.59%，其减少去向主要是林地（占66.75%）和园地（占19.84%），其增加来源主要是未利用地、园地和水域。交通用地的增幅最大，为3.96%,其增加主要来源于耕地、未利用土地和林地，分别占49.96%、16.63%和13.09%。居民点及工矿用地增长幅度为3.12%。 从1996年到2006年的10年间，耕地、未利用地、水域和牧草地下降幅度分别为10.36%、3.61%、1.34%和0.26%。园地增幅达23.61%。绝对面积增长最大的则是林地，达630733.3公顷。交通用地和居民点及工矿用地增幅也较大，分别为15.00%和9.31%。 10年间年均总变化量为310326.6公顷，2000年-2004年之间变化最大（为356865.8公顷），高于平均变化量，而1996-2000年间和2004-2006年间都小于平均变化量。 （3）10年间不同地貌区的LUCC变化 盆西平原区的特点是园地大幅上升达77%，居民点及工矿用地和交通用地也大幅上升，耕地、未利用地下降幅度大，该区耕地、水域、未利用地的减少强度和园地、居民点及工矿用地、交通用地的上升强度均居五区第一；盆地丘陵区的特点是牧草地下降幅度大，为-36.89%,交通用地、园地和林地上升幅度较大，该区耕地减少、未利用地减少、林地增加、居民点及工矿用地和交通用地增加的变化强度均居五区相应地类增减的第二位；盆周山地区的特点是耕地减少较多，交通用地和园地增长较大，该区林地变化强度居各区第一位，牧草地和水域变化强度居各区第二位，耕地、居民点及工矿用地和未利用地居各区第三位；川西南山地区的特点是园地、耕地、交通用地和居民点及工矿用地变化幅度大，另外四个地类变化较小。该区减少的牧草地占全省牧草地减少的97.91%，变化强度居各个地貌区的第一位，园地相对变化强度居五区的第二位；川西北高山高原区的特点是耕地大幅下降、园地大幅上升，交通用地升幅也较大，其余地类变化不大。值得注意的是，该区牧草地和水域面积增加，与全省该地类的变化相反。其余地类的相对变化强度均是五个地貌区中最小的。 用变化强度分值考量变化强度，盆西平原区的变化强度最大，盆地丘陵区和盆周山地区的变化强度相当，川西北高山高原区的变化强度则要小得多。 （4）1996年及2006年全省土地利用/覆盖格局的景观生态学分析 全省是以自然景观占优势（占约70%）、农业景观为补充、建设用地景观居于从属地位的土地利用景观格局。景观多样性和均匀度不高。到2006年，全省总的景观格局并无大的改变。总体情况是随着时间的推移和人类活动的加强，区内景观优势度上升、多样性和均匀度变小。但斑块数减少，斑块面积和斑块孔隙度有所增大。斑块的形状指数和分维数均有所下降，表明受人为干扰有加剧的趋势。反映景观格局结构的破碎度指数有轻微下降。景观指数的变化表明全省土地利用有缓慢集中、规模聚集的趋势。 （5）三大生态建设工程对土地利用/覆盖变化的影响 1996-2006年间LUCC与三大生态建设工程实施的耦合分析，发现退耕工程对耕地、林地、牧草地等地类覆盖变化的影响最大，天保工程次之，长防工程最小。 2.四川省LUCC驱动力分析 （1）总体分析： 从整体上分析，人为因素对区域整体LUCC的影响从1996年的63.32%增加到2006年的66.99%，变得日益强烈。同时人为因素影响强度表现出明显的区域差异，地势平缓、经济区位条件好的区域其人为影响强度明显较高。 政策体制转变下的经济高速增长、快速的城市化、工业化过程和生态建设是四川省LUCC宏观尺度的驱动因素。区域的LUCC主要受到了由内向外(从城市到乡村)和由外向内(从山顶向平地)两种作用力的共同推动。局部尺度上，如距离交通线、水利线、中心城市的远近，地形凸起、大型独立项目落址、重污染项目的阻隔等，甚至一些乡规民俗等因素也会成为LUCC的驱动影响因素。在较小的尺度上,人类个体行为选择对LUCC的影响也是存在的。 　　根据驱动因子的特性作者将其划分为驱变、阻变、良性、惰性因子等类型。 （2）分地貌区的驱动因子分析 各地貌区都存在城市化、工业化、生态工程实施、自然灾害等驱动因子，但主次不一。对于盆西平原和盆地丘陵区，城市化、工业化是前两位的因子，而对另外三个地貌区，生态工程实施和产业结构调整则成为第第一、二位的驱动因子。 （3）分地类的驱动因子分析（以坡耕地为例） 分坡度的耕地变化分析发现，耕地减少主要集中在2°以下的平地、15°-25°和25°以上三个坡度级，是其它坡度级耕地减幅的三倍左右。这表明耕地减少受城市化进程和“退耕还林还草”工程驱动影响尤为巨大。 3.土地利用格局优化、集约利用评价和可持续利用及对策研究 （1）土地利用格局优化的战略选择及调整预测 土地利用格局调整的战略是农业生产用地、建设用地和生态及其他用地占幅员的比重分别稳定在13%、7%和80%左右，重点是三大类别内部二级和三级地类的合理调整。 （2）全省土地集约利用评价 全省农用地利用集约度为0.46，总体上集约度不高，处于较适度利用阶段。建设用地利用集约度为0.38，处于较适度利用阶段。集约利用提升空间较大。 农用地的潜力主要在于加强土地保育、完善利用制度、提高单产。城市建设用地的包括存量潜力、强度潜力、结构潜力，空间很大。农村居民点整理潜力可以逐步挖掘。 （3）新增建设用地集约利用的统筹安排 据测算，到2020年，四川省城市建设用地需求量在463850-492360hm2之间，城镇各业新增建设用地规模为361276.79hm2，占用耕地200565.94 hm2。2004-2020年间四川省农村居民点整理潜力33.86万hm2。农村居民点建设用地需求量为70.57万公顷。 （4）土地集约利用措施与坡耕地可持续利用战略 提出了土地集约利用的措施。在对坡耕地生态系统结构与功能分析的基础上，提出坡耕地可持续利用战略与生态恢复战略，并从技术和政策层面提出了坡耕地合理利用和生态退耕的措施和建议。 LUCC is one of the key questions of global change and sustainable development of society. After the opening and reform of China, the society and economy of Sichuan Province developed very fast ,the land-use/cover changed very strong droved by many factors .But nowadays we have no constant spatial-temporal study and driving force analysis about the whole province based on investigation. And it is lack of land sustainable utilization study based on correlative study. So we choose all the land resource in Sichuan, combine RS and GIS and field investigation, and take statistic-mathematic means and system analysis, to study the LUCC patterns and different scale driving force of different physiognomy regions, land cover types and periods; to analyze the current situation and potential of land resource intensive utilization, and gave out corresponding measurements. We found that forest and grassland are the dominant cover types of Sichuan provincial land –use/cover pattern, and becoming more and more stronger from 1996 to 2006,the natural landscape is the metric and occupy 70%,the diversity and evenness index are not high; the totally change quantity from 2000 to 2004 is the biggest; cultivated land especially steep cultivated land ,garden plot, forestry land ,settlement and industry land and traffic land changed relative stronger; among five physiognomy regions ,the changing intensity of PEN XI PING YUAN QU is the biggest, CHUAN XI BEI GAO SHAN GAO QU is smallest; under the background of policy system changing, the fast developing of economy, fast urbanization and industrialization and ecology construction are the macro-scale driving force of Sichuan provincial LUCC; to compare the impacts of “TUI GENG GONG CHENG” on LUCC especially to cultivated land ,forestry land and grassland is strongest, “TIAN BAO GONG CHENG ” is stronger,“ HANG FANG GONG CHENG” is smallest; the intensive utilization level of farmland and construction land of whole province is relative moderation, there is huge potential to excavate and fulfill the increasing demand of construction land；we must take synthetic measurements to accelerate the sustainable utilization of land resource, including administrative, economical ,technological and ecological policies.

青藏高原东部混农季节性放牧及其对高山林线格局的影响

混农季节性放牧（agropastoral transhumance）通过作物种植和畜牧生产相结合的方式对不同海拔高度带上的资源进行相互补充利用，在亚洲兴都库什地区、青藏高原、横断山、东部及南部非洲、南美安第斯地区等具有悠久的历史。这种传统的生计系统几千年以来一直是居住在该地区的人类社会和自然生态系统相互作用的主要形式之一。这种传统的资源利用方式与山地自然植被以及特殊的山地人类文化和社会特征具有密切的协同演变关系。认识和理解这一关系，是山地生态学和人类学的核心科学问题之一。近年来，山地生态系统的多重功能性及动态演变对山区社会经济可持续发展的重要意义受到人们的不断关注。本文通过对云南省德钦县的12个自然村的混农季节性放牧以及对云南德钦、四川壤塘等山地植被格局特别是高海拔地带植被格局的的详细调查，探讨青藏高原东缘地区混农季节性放牧的主要特征、系统构成及相互关系，及其在全球变化、经济全球化和市场化及现代化过程中的变化趋势，分析混农季节性放牧与高山林线格局及生态系统的互动关系，旨在探讨山地地区人类活动与自然生态系统之间的互动关系，从而为山区社会经济可持续发展、环境建设和生物多样性保护等国家战略提供理论依据。 调查结果表明，混农季节性放牧是一种适应青藏高原东部高山峡谷地区环境因子及自然资源呈明显的垂直分布、资源数量稀少而时空分布异质性极高的生存环境的一种传统经济形式。这种传统的畜牧业的主要生产目的仍然是提供当地基本生存所需的产品，饲养牲口的种类和数量取决于农户的当地需求并且受资源的限制，因而维持在比较低的水平的。分布在不同海拔高度的放牧资源在一年中被牲口利用的时间也不同，互为补充，共同构成混农季节性放牧的资源基础。根据各社区永久居住点的位置和该村的土地资源特别是牧草地资源的分布范围，牲口迁移的距离和格局有较大的差异。。天然牧场仍然是最主要的畜牧业生产资源。混农季节性放牧中的农业系统和牧业系统互为补充，共同构成调查地区完整的的生计系统，农耕活动为放牧活动提供精饲料如粮食等和冬季饲料如秸秆， 其数量往往成为家庭畜牧业生产规模的主要决定因子之一。 通过对牲口数量和结构、牲口的时空迁移格局、牧业活动在整个经济活动中的相对重要性以及牧业活动和作物种植的关系方面的研究分析，混农季节性放牧在近几十年发生了深刻的变化。主要表现在牲口数量总体下降，牲口组成发生变化，牲口移动性降低、牧业活动的经济重要性下降以及牧业活动和种植活动之间的相互依存度降低等。上述变化的根本驱动力是发生在当地、地区及全球尺度上的环境、政治、社会经济、技术和文化等的变化，从而造成当地群众畜牧生产目标、土地利用和劳动力的分布等发生了变化。当地生计系统发生的改变可能会带来对方面而深刻的政治、社会经济、文化和生态影响。 混农季节性放牧这种古老的传统生计策略面临着许多挑战，如冬季饲料短缺、草场退化、缺乏市场竞争力、经济重要性降低、对年轻人缺乏吸引力、国家缺乏专门的政策指导等。与此同时，经济全球化、市场经济、新技术的应用、替代生计机会的增加、国家对于山地生态系统的作用的重新定位等也为传统生计系统转型、实现社会与生态共赢创造了机遇。 混农季节性放牧活动对亚高山及树线交错带生态系统系统的互动方式主要体现在以下几个方面：（1）牲口啃食、践踏等影响森林群落更新，改变森林群落的组成和结构，从而影响森林群落的演替进程和植被格局。林线边缘是搭建夏棚的首选地点，因此林线及树线交错地带就成了牲口活动的主要场所之一；（2）利用火烧开辟、维持和改良高山牧场； 3）在亚高山火灾迹地的放牧活动能够阻止火烧迹地的顺向演替； 4）牧民在林线附近获取建材和薪材等活动影响高山林线附近森林的结构和功能。 在调查区域，梅里雪山、白马雪山、甲午雪山的林线海拔高度在4200-4300m之间； 四川雅江、理塘一线，林线位置多在4300-4400m；四川壤塘二林场一带的林线主体在4100-4200m，在个别地区达到4300m； 在贡嘎山的南坡和东坡一带，林线位置在3600-3700m；而在四川松潘一带，林线位置主体在3700-3800米左右。树线高度的分布趋势和林线一致。混农季节性放牧及其有关人类利用活动使研究地区很多地方高山林线降低、树线交错带宽变窄或消失。在研究地区，总体情况是，阳坡和半阳坡（南坡、西南坡等）的林线和树线比阴坡和半阴坡（北坡、东北坡等）低，变化幅度达20-200m。这种差异主要是为了开辟牧场而人为清除了南向坡自然林线及其以上的植被从而使林线位置下降所致。在南坡自然林线保留得比较好的地方，林线和树线依然可以达到甚至超过北坡林线和树线的高度。放牧活动抑制了高山林线带火烧迹地的天然更新，从而使林线位置保持在目前的位置。 放牧活动对高山林线带森林群落更新的影响是显著的。自然林线内的乔木个体密度特别是新生苗和幼苗的密度大大高于非自然林线。没有放牧的自然林线及树线交错带内的I级个体（新生苗）密度达到725-2917株/公顷，而与之相对的处理样地内I级个体的密度只有0-228株/公顷；II级个体（高度10-50cm）也表现出类似的趋势，在没有放牧的自然林线及树线交错带样方内，其密度达到550-5208株/，而在放牧处理样方内只有14-321株/公顷。在非自然林线带样地内，在有正常放牧的样地内，完全缺乏I级个体。 从相对比例来看，没有放牧的样方内的I、II级个体在全部个体中所占的比例显著高于有放牧活动的样方。放牧使林线交错带的乔木幼苗数量显著减少，从而影响林线及树线交错带森林群落的天然更新过程。林线和树线交错带的灌木对乔木幼苗具有重要的保护作用，能够为树线树种如冷杉等幼苗的定居体提供有利的微气候环境，同时保护苗免受牲口的啃食和践踏。火烧以后接着进行放牧能够100%地抑制高山林线带的幼苗更新。 高山牧场放牧强度降低、使用时间缩短而低海拔地带放牧强度增加是研究地区混农季节性放牧系统的一个显著变化。这种变化也必然会引起各海拔带上的生态系统的变化。放牧强度的降低、生产性用火的停止将导致原来通过人工火烧而降低并通过进一步的火烧和放牧活动来维持的林线及其以上地带的灌木盖度和高度的增加，从而为林线森林群落的扩张创造条件。 青藏高原东部高山峡谷地区是我国重要的山地生态系统，在我国的生物多样性保护、生态环境建设、社会经济可持续发展战略中具有举足轻重的作用。正确认识人类特别是当地传统的生计系统与生态环境系统的互动关系是实现上述战略目标的前提。决策者必须以综合、系统的的视角协调促进社会经济可持续发展、保护生物及文化多样性和维持人、牲口和生态系统之间的平衡的多重目标。 Agropastoral transhumance, which makes a complementary exploitation of the natural resources at different altitudinal belts through a combination of migratory animal husbandry and crop cultivation, has a long history in Hindu-Kush Himalaya, Tibet Plateau, Hengduan Ranges, eastern and southern Africa and the Andes region of south America.For millennia, this traditional livelihood strategy has been one of the main forms of interaction between human societies inhabiting in these regions and their natural ecocystems. A close co-evolutionary relationship has been developed between this indigenous resources management systems and the mountain vegetation systems on the one hand and a unique set of cultural values and social features on the other. Understanding this relationship has been one of the core scientific issues in mountain ecology and anthropology. In recent years, the importance of the multiple functions of the mountain ecosystems and their dynamic changes in the sustainable socio-economic development of the mountain regions has gained increasing attention. This paper, which is based on a detailed study on the agropastoral practices of the 12 natural villages in Deqin County of Yunnan, and the mountainnn vegetation patterns in Deqin of Yunnan and Rangtang County of Sichuan, intends to reveal the major characteristics, system composition and the inter-relations of the subsystems of the agropastoral transhumance in Eastern Tibetan Plateau as well as the trends of changes of the system within the context of global changes, economic globalization and modernity process of China and analyze the relations between agropastoral transhumance and alpine ecosystem, ao as to understand the interactions between human activities and natural ecosystems of the mountains and provide theoretical basis for the national strategies in eocioeconomic development, environmental reconstruction and biodiversity conservation in the mountain regions. Results of the survey indicate that agropastoral transhumance in the investigated area is a traditional economic form that is highly adapted to the eastern Tibet Plateau where the topography features high peaks and deep gorges and where the highly variable environmental parameters and scanty natural resources exhibit a distinct vertical spectrum of distribution and great temporal and spatial heterogeneity. The main objective of pastoral management is still aimed at the production of basic goods and services of local people and thus the type and size of animals raised for each household mainly depend on local needs and are limited by the availability of natural resources. The scale of production is relatively low. Pastoral resources at different altidudinal belts are complementarily used at different seasons of a year and thus form the resources basis for agropastoral production of the study area. Migration distances and patterns vary with the location of the permanent settlements, the elevational distribution range of the resources of the villages concerned. Natural pastures (rangelands) are the main fodder resources and sumplement feedings only account for less than 5% of the total fodder consumption. Crop cultivation and pastoral activities support each other to form a complete livelihood system. The ability of the farmig lands (crop cultivation) to provide the pastoral activities with concentrates and sumplements often becomes a main factor limiting the scale of livestock production at household level. Agropastoral transhumance is experiencing drastic changes in recent decades as is reflected in the size and composition of animals, the seasonal migration pattern, the relative importance of pastoralism in the household economy and the interplays of agricultural and pastoral elements of the system. In general, there is a decline in animal population and mobility, a shift in animal composition to meet new needs arising from changed macro-economic situation, a decrease in the relative importance in the household economy and an increasing decoupling of agro&pastoral relations. The fundamental divers of these changes can be traced to environmental, social, economic, technological and cultural changes from local to global levels and such changes have further caused local changes in livestock management objectives, land use and distribution of labor forces. Changes in local livelihood systems could have profound political, socioeconomic, cultural and ecological conseuquences. Agropastoral transhumance, as an age-old traditional livelihood strategy, is facing multifacet challenges, such as winter fodder shortage, rangeland degradation, lack of market competitiveness, decrease in economic importance, lack of appreciation among the young generation and adequate policies from the government. At the same time, economic globalization, market economy, intrdoctution of new technologies, increase of alternative income generating opportunities and the national re-oreitation of policies on mountain ecosystems have all brought about new opportunities for the transformation of the traditional livelihood system and the synchronized development of local society and the environment. Agropastoral transhumance interacts with the ecosystems at the timberline and treeline ecotone mainly through the following aspects: 1)Animal browsing and stamping affect the regeneration process of the forest communities and alters the composition and structure of the forest which in turn affect the succession process and vegetation pattern of the forest communities. Forest edges are the priority locations for summer houses and therefore the timeline and treeline area becomes the major venues of aninal activities; （2）herders create, maintain and improve pastures through burning that remove the forest communities at the timeline and treeline ecotone; 3）immediate grazing on the fire sites can significantly prevent the fire sites from perogressive succession; and 4）herders harvesting of construction timber and firewoods affects the structure and functions of the forest communities at the timberline and treeline zone. Timberline position in the survey region shows geographical variations. It is around 4200-4300m in Meilixueshan, Baimaxueshan and Jiawuxueshan in Northwest of Yunnan and rises to 4300-4400m in Yajiang County and Litang County of Sichuan. In Rangtang of Sichuan, it is between 4100-4200m, though reaching 4300m in localized sites. In the southern and eastern slopes of Gongga Mountain, the timberline is only between 3600m and 3700m and in Songpan County at the upper reach of the Minjiang River the timberline is around 3700-3800m.Treeline pattern follows similar trend. In many places, agropastoral transhumance and related human activities have lowered the timberline and treeline and narrowed or removed the treeline ecotone. In the area of survey, generally speaking, timberlines and treelines are lower on the southern slopes than on the northern slopes, with a difference between 20 and 200m. This is mainly because that the use of fires to crerate pastures has removed the forest vegetation at the previous timberline and above. In fact, in many places, well-preserved forests on the south slopes have even high timberline position that the corresponding northern slopes. At subalpine zone, grazing activities could have prohibited the natural regeneration of many forest fire sites and maintained the forest position at the present level. Grazing has a significant impact on the regernation process of forest communities at the timberline zone. Natural timberline and treeline ecotone has much higher density of treeline species individuals especially the emergents and seedlings than the timberlines that are maintained by human activities. In natural timberline and treelien ecotone without grazing interference, the density of the I Class seedlings (less than 10cm in height) ranges 725-2917 /hm2; while that in the treatment plots (with grazing disturbance) is only 0-228//hm2；II Class seedlings (10-50cm）exhibit similar density trends, reaching 550-5208//hm2 in natural timberline without grazing but only 14-321//hm2 in the plots with grazing treatment. In the man-created timberlines, there is no I Class seedling at all in plots with normal grazing activities. In relative terms, in plots without grazing activities, the propotion of I Class and II Class seedlings is much higher than that in plots with grazing. Grazing activities have significantly reduced the number of seedlings in the timberline ane treeline ecotone, and thus affect the natural regeneration process of the forests. Shrubs at the timberline and treeline ecotone can effectively protect the seedlings from severe climate and animal tramping, thus increasing the survival rate of the seedlings. Grazing following fires can completely inhibit forest regeneration process at timberline. Changes in agropastoral transhumance will have great impact on the timberline and treeline pattern of the studied area. The decrease in grazing intensity on alpine pastrues and the cessation of the use of fires will result an increase in the cover and height of shrubs above the present human-maintained treeline, which will create further condition for the expansion of timberline forest communities. Eastern Tibet Plateau harbors some most important mountain ecosystems of China that are of vital importance to the country’s strategy in biodiversity conservation, environmental construction and sustainable sociaoeconomic development. A proper knowledge of the interactions between traditional livelihood systems and the ecosystems in the region is a precondition to the realization of the above strategic goals. Therefore, the decision-makers must have a holistic and systemic perspective so as to integrate the multiple objectives of promoting sustainable socioeconomic development, conserving biological and cultural diversity and maintaining the balances among people, animal population and the ecosystems.

末次盛冰期以来中国陆地生态系统碳储量变化研究

Carbon is an essential element for life, food and energy. It is also a key element in the greenhouse gases and therefore plays a vital role in climatic changes. The rapid increase in atmospheric concentration of CO_2 over the past 150 years, reaching current concentrations of about 370 ppmv, corresponds with combustion of fossii fuels since the beginning of the industrial age. Conversion of forested land to agricultural use has also redistributed carbon from plants and soils to the atmosphere. These human activities have significantly altered the global carbon cycle. Understanding the consequences of these activities in the coming decades is critical for formulating economic, energy, technology, trade, and security policies that will affect civilization for generations. Under the auspices of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), several large international scientific efforts are focused on elucidating the various aspects of the global carbon cycle of the past decade. It is only possible to balance the global carbon cycle for the 1990s if there is net carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems of around 2 Pg C/a. There are now some independent, direct evidences for the existence of such a sink. Policymarkers involved in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN-FCCC) are striving to reach consensuses on a 'safe path' for future emissions, the credible predictions on where and how long the terrestrial sink will either persist at its current level, or grow/decline in the future, are important to advice the policy process. The changes of terrestrial carbon storage depend not only on human activities, but also on biogeochemical and climatological processes and their interaction with the carbon cycles. In this thesis, the climate-induced changes and human-induced changes of carbon storage in China since the past 20,000 years are examined. Based on the data of the soil profiles investigated during China's Second National Soil Survey (1979-1989), the forest biomass measured during China's Fourth National Forest Resource Inventory (1989-1993), the grass biomass investigated during the First National Grassland Resource Survey (1980-1991), and the data collected from a collection of published literatures, the current terrestrial carbon storage in China is estimated to -144.1 Pg C, including -136.8 Pg C in soil and -7.3 Pg C in vegetation. The soil organic (SOC) and inorganic carbon (SIC) storage are -78.2 Pg C and -58.6 Pg C, respectively. In the vegetation reservoir, the forest carbon storage is -5.3 Pg C, and the other of-1.4 Pg C is in the grassland. Under the natural conditions, the SOC, SIC, forest and grassland carbon storage are -85.3 Pg C, -62.6 Pg C, -24.5 Pg C and -5.3 Pg C, respectively. Thus, -29.6 Pg C organic carbon has been lost due to land use with a decrease of -20.6%. At the same time, the SIC storage also has been decreased by -4.0 Pg C (-6.4%). These suggest that human activity has caused significant carbon loss in terrestrial carbon storage of China, especially in the forest ecosystem (-76% loss). Using the Paleocarbon Model (PCM) developed by Wu et al. in this paper, total terrestrial organic carbon storage in China in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was -114.8 Pg C, including -23.1 Pg C in vegetation and -86.7 Pg C in soil. At the Middle Holocene (MH), the vegetation, soil and total carbon were -37.3 Pg C, -93.9 Pg C and -136.0 Pg C, respectively. This implies a gain of-21.2 Pg C in the terrestrial carbon storage from LGM to HM mainly due to the temperature increase. However, a loss of-14.4 Pg C of terrestrial organic carbon occurred in China under the current condition (before 1850) compared with the MH time, mainly due to the precipitation decrease associated with the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon. These results also suggest that the terrestrial ecosystem in China has a substantial potential in the restoration of carbon storage. This might be expected to provide an efficient way to mitigate the greenhouse warming through land management practices. Assuming that half of the carbon loss in the degraded terrestrial ecosystem in current forest and grass areas are restored during the next 50 years or so, the terrestrial ecosystem in China may sequestrate -12.0 Pg of organic carbon from the atmosphere, which represents a considerable offset to the industry's CO2 emission. If the ' Anthropocene' Era will be another climate optimum like MH due to the greenhouse effect, the sequestration would be increased again by -4.3 - 9.0 Pg C in China.