Statistical analysis of synthetic earthquake catalogs generated by models with various levels of fault zone disorder

The stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic rebound theory, is applied to the large events from four synthetic earthquake catalogs generated by models with various levels of disorder in distribution of fault zone strength (Ben-Zion, 1996) They include models with uniform properties (U), a Parkfield-type asperity (A), fractal brittle properties (F), and multi-size-scale heterogeneities (M). The results show that the degree of regularity or predictability in the assumed fault properties, based on both the Akaike information criterion and simulations, follows the order U, F, A, and M, which is in good agreement with that obtained by pattern recognition techniques applied to the full set of synthetic data. Data simulated from the best fitting stress release models reproduce, both visually and in distributional terms, the main features of the original catalogs. The differences in character and the quality of prediction between the four cases are shown to be dependent on two main aspects: the parameter controlling the sensitivity to departures from the mean stress level and the frequency-magnitude distribution, which differs substantially between the four cases. In particular, it is shown that the predictability of the data is strongly affected by the form of frequency-magnitude distribution, being greatly reduced if a pure Gutenburg-Richter form is assumed to hold out to high magnitudes.

Yellow perch strain evaluation I: Genetic variance of six broodstock populations

As a prelude to strain selection for domestication and future marker assisted selection, genetic variation revealed by microsatellite DNA was evaluated in yellow perch, Perca flavescens, from four wild North American populations collected in 2003-2004 (Maine, New York, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania,), and two captive populations (Michigan and Ohio). For the loci examined, levels of heterozygosity ranged from H-e=0.04 to 0.88, genetic differentiation was highly significant among all population pairs, and effective migration ranged from low (N(e)m=0.3) to high (N(e)m=4.5). Deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was regularly observed indicating significant departures from random mating. Instantaneous measures of inbreeding within these populations ranged from near zero to moderate (median F=0.16) and overall inbreeding levels averaged F-IS=0.18. Estimates of genetic diversity, Phi(ST), and genetic distance were highest between Michigan and all other broodstock groups and lowest between New York and Ohio. Genetic differentiation among groups did not correlate with geographic distance. Overall, the patterns of variation exhibited by the captive (Michigan and Ohio) populations were similar to patterns exhibited by the other wild populations, indicating that spawning and management practices to date have not significantly reduced levels of genetic variation. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.