An application of the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy logic inference in a decision support system for forage selection

Forage selection plays a prominent role in the process of returning cultivated lands back into grasslands. The conventional method of selecting forage species can only provide attempts for problem-solving without considering the relationships among the decision factors globally. Therefore, this study is dedicated to developing a decision support system to help farmers correctly select suitable forage species for the target sites. After collecting data through a field study, we developed this decision support system. It consists of three steps: (1) the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), (2) weights determination, and (3) decision making. In the first step, six factors influencing forage growth were selected by reviewing the related references and by interviewing experts. Then a fuzzy matrix was devised to determine the weight of each factor in the second step. Finally, a gradual alternative decision support system was created to help farmers choose suitable forage species for their lands in the third step. The results showed that the AHP and fuzzy logic are useful for forage selection decision making, and the proposed system can provide accurate results in a certain area (Gansu Province) of China.

胜利勘探数据中心及勘探辅助决策系统研究

In the paper through extensive study and design, the technical plan for establishing the exploration database center is made to combine imported and self developed techniques. By research and repeated experiment a modern database center has been set up with its hardware and network having advanced performance, its system well configured, its data store and management complete, and its data support being fast and direct. Through study on the theory, method and model of decision an exploration decision assistant schema is designed with one decision plan of well location decision support system being evaluated and put into action. 1. Study on the establishment of Shengli exploration database center Research is made on the hardware configuration of the database center including its workstations and all connected hardware and system. The hardware of the database center is formed by connecting workstations, microcomputer workstations, disk arrays, and those equipments used for seismic processing and interpretation. Research on the data store and management includes the analysis of the contents to be managed, data flow, data standard, data QC, data backup and restore policy, optimization of database system. A reasonable data management regulation and workflow is made and the scientific exploration data management system is created. Data load is done by working out a schedule firstly and at last 200 more projects of seismic surveys has been loaded amount to 25TB. 2. Exploration work support system and its application Seismic data processing system support has the following features, automatic extraction of seismic attributes, GIS navigation, data order, extraction of any sized data cube, pseudo huge capacity disk array, standard output exchange format etc. The prestack data can be accessed by the processing system or data can be transferred to other processing system through standard exchange format. For supporting seismic interpretation system the following features exist such as auto scan and store of interpretation result, internal data quality control etc. the interpretation system is connected directly with database center to get real time support of seismic data, formation data and well data. Comprehensive geological study support is done through intranet with the ability to query or display data graphically on the navigation system under some geological constraints. Production management support system is mainly used to collect, analyze and display production data with its core technology on the controlled data collection and creation of multiple standard forms. 3. exploration decision support system design By classification of workflow and data flow of all the exploration stages and study on decision theory and method, target of each decision step, decision model and requirement, three concept models has been formed for the Shengli exploration decision support system including the exploration distribution support system, the well location support system and production management support system. the well location decision support system has passed evaluation and been put into action. 4. Technical advance Hardware and software match with high performance for the database center. By combining parallel computer system, database server, huge capacity ATL, disk array, network and firewall together to create the first exploration database center in China with reasonable configuration, high performance and able to manage the whole data sets of exploration. Huge exploration data management technology is formed where exploration data standards and management regulations are made to guarantee data quality, safety and security. Multifunction query and support system for comprehensive exploration information support. It includes support system for geological study, seismic processing and interpretation and production management. In the system a lot of new database and computer technology have been used to provide real time information support for exploration work. Finally is the design of Shengli exploration decision support system. 5. Application and benefit Data storage has reached the amount of 25TB with thousand of users in Shengli oil field to access data to improve work efficiency multiple times. The technology has also been applied by many other units of SINOPEC. Its application of providing data to a project named Exploration achievements and Evaluation of Favorable Targets in Hekou Area shortened the data preparation period from 30 days to 2 days, enriching data abundance 15 percent and getting information support from the database center perfectly. Its application to provide former processed result for a project named Pre-stack depth migration in Guxi fracture zone reduced the amount of repeated process and shortened work period of one month and improved processing precision and quality, saving capital investment of data processing of 30 million yuan. It application by providing project database automatically in project named Geological and seismic study of southern slope zone of Dongying Sag shortened data preparation time so that researchers have more time to do research, thus to improve interpretation precision and quality.

森林流域单元水文模型的构建与应用

目前全球缺水、水污染、洪涝灾害以及水土流失仍然非常严重，尤其在我国北方地区。流域水文模型可用来进行不同需水管理的情景分析，为解决我国水问题提供科学依据。分布式水文模型是流域水文模型的发展方向，具有显著特点：1）应用前景广泛，不仅可以模拟流域水文过程，还可以协助模拟泥沙或污染物的运移过程，为水利工程设计、水土保持、环境保护等领域提供技术支持；2）能够预测流域土地利用或气候变化下的流域水文响应过程变化，为管理部门提供决策支持；3）模型所需要的参数全部具有物理意义，可通过实际测量确定，适合模拟实测系列较短或是无观测流域的水文过程；4）对于目前国际水文界的前沿问题—水文尺度转换提供了一种有效的解决途径。 然而分布式水文模型还不完善，如1)真实性问题。对一些水文过程和边界条件还不确定。2)尺度转换问题。目前很少考虑尺度对参数有效性的影响。3)检验问题。还无法判断对有些难以测量的水文状态变量的模拟正确与否。4)计算时间和数据存储的问题。有些分布式水文模型虽然具有很强的水文物理基础和完善的模型结构，但是计算时间过长和(或)数据存储过大，难以应用。上述问题的核心就是对分布式水文模型的核心—单元水文模型的研究不够，需要为进一步完善单元水文模型进行研究。 本文采用饱和入渗理论、Saint-Venant方程、Richards方程、Penman-Monteith方程等等构建了以有限差分法求解的适用于森林流域的单元水文模型，并通过实验室模拟试验和坡地径流场资料进行了验证，主要结论为： 通过不同坡度和不同雨强下的室内坡面产汇流实验模拟，表明：该模型模拟的坡面流和壤中流过程与实测过程基本一致，峰现时间、径流历时、峰值流量、出流总量模拟值与实测值的相对误差均较小，基本小于10%。模型的模拟精度较高，实用性较强，为深入研究壤中流机制和改进流域降雨-径流模型提供了理论依据。 通过坡地径流观测场实测资料的验证，表明：该模型模拟的坡面流过程精度较高，累计流量的精度更高于小时过程的精度，离差系数、效率系数、确定系数均较理想，具有应用价值，有助于改善分布式水文模型在森林流域的模拟效果。

岷江上游农林复合景观管理优先度评价

结合前期研究共辨识出10项景观管理影响因子,依据其作用的性质和特点,将其分为4大类参数,通过NetWeaver模型构建了基于模糊逻辑的优先度评价知识库,在EMDS(Ecosystem Management Decision Support system)和ARCGIS9.x环境下,对4类景观管理影响因子的优先度进行了评价。结果显示:1)可行性因子综合优先度评价结果为除ws3、ws6、ws8和ws9 4个子流域的优先度为低外,其余6个子流域优先度居于中等优先水平;2)有效性因子优先度综合评价结果,ws1、ws9和ws10 3个子流域优先度为强,ws8优先度最低,其余子流域为中等优先;3)景观综合结果除ws1~ws33个子流域属于强外,其余子流域优先度为低;4)所有影响因子的综合结果为ws8子流域优先度最低,其余部分优先度居于中等。

旱地作物需水量预报决策辅助系统

旱地作物需水量预报决策辅助系统是利用人工智能技术 ,在 Penman公式的基础上结合现有西北旱区的农学知识、模型以及经验进行系统集成而建立的智能化计算机软件系统 ,该系统是西北地区节水农业专家系统的一个子系统。在生产实践中可为陕西关中地区的冬小麦、夏玉米的栽培作出灌溉方案的决策咨询。

数据驱动的多Agent装备器材保障决策支持系统

为提高复杂网络环境和任务需求下器材保障的智能化水平,提出了一个数据驱动的多Agent器材保障决策支持系统DSS(decision support system),系统中的数据、模型以及Agent可分布在不同的网络节点上,高层Agent可由粒度更小的子Agent或Agent部件组合而成;系统中的各类智能Agent相互协作,共同完成异构数据集成、多维数据集构造、器材保障模型挖掘、复杂规划问题求解,以及保障方案自动生成等任务,从而有效降低了系统开发的难度,提高了Agent协作的灵活性。研究结果表明,该系统架构能够显著提升器材保障决策方案的质量和效率。

宏观经济的决策支持系统

本文介绍了一个用于宏观经济决策的决策支持系统的内容和特点。论述了处理经济系统时建立知识库系统的必要性。着重介绍了用于宏观经济的知识库系统以及建立在这个系统基础之上的整个决策支持系统的结构。最后简述了这个系统的发展方向。

基于面向对象方法的决策支持系统

决策支持系统(DSS-Decision Support Systems)作为信息系统的高级形式得到了广泛重视,但同时也面临着很多问题。本文仔细剖析了这些问题,讨论以面向对象OO(Object Oriented)的方法进行DSS设计,最后提出了一个基于OO方法的DSS结构。

交通战备保障方案决策系统的研究设计

阐述了一种交通战备保障方案实施决策支持系统，介绍了系统的数据库系统、模型库系统的设计.该系统主要针对突发事件，为交通战备保障方案的实施提供快速、有效的决策支持。

面向决策支持的综合地质信息系统功能开发和GIS应用

Synthetic Geology Information System(SGIS) is a part of the theory of Engineering Geomechanics-mate-Synthetics(EGMS), is also a development of its technical methodology. SGIS includes ways of geology engineering investigation, design, and construction. Although SGIS has an integrate theory frame, and some parts of it have gained great progress, the completion of SGIS is a continuous and accumulative process. This paper analyses the ways and principle of building knowledge database and model database, summarizes the experts' experience on exploration methods selection and the characters of exploration models, combining with the application of Decision Support System(DSS) in Decision support of Synthetic Exploration Methods for Railway engineering Geology. By the analysis of hierarchy structure of the model database, the effects of geology engineering factors on the selection of exploration methods are expressed. By the usage of fuzzy patterns recognize, hierarchy structure analysis, fuzzy collection closement analysis etc, the software of DSS for engineering design and construction are developed. At same time, by the development of Monitoring Data Analysis System and experiment data management system of Hydro-power project, this paper discussed the data management of science experiment of Hydro-power project by the usage of synthetic database and the usage of Geography Information System(GIS) and DSS technics. The technic of visual operation of data process and project monitoring system are presented. The intelligence algorithm of self-adoption is carried out to improve the data process and analysis of monitoring. Items of the project theoretical analysis and data process are designed in detail. All the theory and technical methods presented in this paper are one part of SGIS, in which the application of DSS and GIS, is an important step of the progress and completion of SGIS.