Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.

Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Simulation of the Load-Unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Prediction of structural dynamic plastic shear failure by Johnson's damage number

It is proved that Johnson's damage number is the sole similarity parameter for dynamic plastic shear failure of structures loaded impulsively, therefore, dynamic plastic shear failure can be understood when damage number reaches a critical value. It is suggested that the damage number be generally used to predict the dynamic plastic shear failure of structures under various kinds of dynamic loads (impulsive loading, rectangular pressure pulse, exponential pressure pulse, etc.,). One of the advantages for using the damage number to predict such kind of failure is that it is conveniently used for dissimilar material modeling.

Critical Sensitivity and Trans-Scale Fluctuations in Catastrophic Rupture

Rupture in the heterogeneous crust appears to be a catastrophe transition. Catastrophic rupture sensitively depends on the details of heterogeneity and stress transfer on multiple scales. These are difficult to identify and deal with. As a result, the threshold of earthquake-like rupture presents uncertainty. This may be the root of the difficulty of earthquake prediction. Based on a coupled pattern mapping model, we represent critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations associated with catastrophic rupture. Critical sensitivity means that a system may become significantly sensitive near catastrophe transition. Trans-scale fluctuations mean that the level of stress fluctuations increases strongly and the spatial scale of stress and damage fluctuations evolves from the mesoscopic heterogeneity scale to the macroscopic scale as the catastrophe regime is approached. The underlying mechanism behind critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations is the coupling effect between heterogeneity and dynamical nonlinearity. Such features may provide clues for prediction of catastrophic rupture, like material failure and great earthquakes. Critical sensitivity may be the physical mechanism underlying a promising earthquake forecasting method, the load-unload response ratio (LURR).

Analysis of critical excavation depth for a jointed rock slope using a face-to-face discrete element method

The critical excavation depth of a jointed rock slope is an important problem in rock engineering. This paper studies the critical excavation depth for two idealized jointed rock slopes by employing a face-to-face discrete element method (DEM). The DEM is based on the discontinuity analysis which can consider anisotropic and discontinuous deformations due to joints and their orientations. It uses four lump-points at each surface of rock blocks to describe their interactions. The relationship between the critical excavation depth D-s and the natural slope angle alpha, the joint inclination angle theta as well as the strength parameters of the joints c(r) ,phi(r) is analyzed, and the critical excavation depth obtained with this DEM and the limit equilibrium method (LEM) is compared. Furthermore, effects of joints on the failure modes are compared between DEM simulations and experimental observations. It is found that the DEM predicts a lower critical excavation depth than the LEM if the joint structures in the rock mass are not ignored.

“Deborah Numbers”, Coupling Multiple Space and Time Scales and Governing Damage Evolution to Failure

Two different spatial levels are involved concerning damage accumulation to eventual failure. nucleation and growth rates of microdamage nN* and V*. It is found that the trans-scale length ratio c*/L does not directly affect the process. Instead, two independent dimensionless numbers: the trans-scale one * * ( V*)including the * **5 * N c V including mesoscopic parameters only, play the key role in the process of damage accumulation to failure. The above implies that there are three time scales involved in the process: the macroscopic imposed time scale tim = /a and two meso-scopic time scales, nucleation and growth of damage, (* *4) N N t =1 n c and tV=c*/V*. Clearly, the dimensionless number De*=tV/tim refers to the ratio of microdamage growth time scale over the macroscopically imposed time scale. So, analogous to the definition of Deborah number as the ratio of relaxation time over external one in rheology. Let De be the imposed Deborah number while De represents the competition and coupling between the microdamage growth and the macroscopically imposed wave loading. In stress-wave induced tensile failure (spallation) De* < 1, this means that microdamage has enough time to grow during the macroscopic wave loading. Thus, the microdamage growth appears to be the predominate mechanism governing the failure. Moreover, the dimensionless number D* = tV/tN characterizes the ratio of two intrinsic mesoscopic time scales: growth over nucleation. Similarly let D be the “intrinsic Deborah number”. Both time scales are relevant to intrinsic relaxation rather than imposed one. Furthermore, the intrinsic Deborah number D* implies a certain characteristic damage. In particular, it is derived that D* is a proper indicator of macroscopic critical damage to damage localization, like D* ∼ (10–3~10–2) in spallation. More importantly, we found that this small intrinsic Deborah number D* indicates the energy partition of microdamage dissipation over bulk plastic work. This explains why spallation can not be formulated by macroscopic energy criterion and must be treated by multi-scale analysis.

Critical Biot's number for Determination of the Sensitivity of Spherical Ceramics to Thermal Shock

A critical Biot number, which determines both the sensitivity of spherical ceramics to quenching and the durations of the temperature-wave propagation and the thermal stresses in the ceramics subjected to thermal shock, is theoretically obtained. The results prove that once the Biot number of a ceramic sphere is greater than the critical number, its thermal shock failure will be such a rapid process that the failure only occurs in the initial regime of heat conduction, whereas the thermal shock failure of the ceramic sphere is uncertain in the course of heat conduction. The presented results provide a guide to the selection of the ceramics applied in the thermostructural engineering with thermal shock.