生物质气化与废弃物焚烧联合发电的技术经济分析

介绍了生物质气化与废弃物焚烧联合发电技术项目，确定了该项目经济效益的评价指标，定量计算了项目的投资回收期、净现值和内部收益率。同时还对燃料费用、上网电价和固定资产变化引起的敏感性进行分析。结果表明，该联合发电技术的动态投资回收期为9.05a，净现值为2770万元，内部收益率为15.82％，三个经济指标均符合行业标准。从经济角度看是完全可行的。

黄土丘陵区农业生态系统和经济系统的互动关系——以安塞县纸坊沟小流域为例

基于1938—2007年黄土丘陵区纸坊沟流域的调查资料,利用生态系统服务价值评估方法和生态足迹理论对该流域生态系统服务价值与生态足迹进行了测算,并分析了研究区农业生态系统与经济系统的互动关系.结果表明:1938—2007年,纸坊沟流域经历了3个阶段,即生态环境破坏-经济发展落后阶段(1938—1975年)、生态环境恢复-经济迅速发展阶段(1975—2000年)和生态环境保持良好-经济稳定增长阶段(2000—2007年);该区生态经济系统的互动关系表现为"生态恶化-生态、经济相互调节、适应-生态、经济良性互动"的过程.

基于RS和GIS的四川省土地利用/覆盖变化及可持续利用研究

LUCC是全球变化研究的核心主题之一，也是社会经济可持续发展的关键问题。改革开放后四川的社会经济发展非常快，在各种因素的驱动下，土地利用/覆盖发生了深刻变化。目前四川省缺乏基于实际调查数据的、全域性的、具有连续时间序列的LUCC和驱动力分析及土地可持续利用研究成果，这对我们从全局上把握全省土地利用现状、发展变化趋势，利用土地政策参与宏观调控，实现长期可持续发展目标，建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会极为不利。本研究针对这一问题，选取全川八大土地利用类型作为研究对象，研究了全省1996年到2006年的土地利用/覆盖格局和变化情况，分析了不同尺度的驱动因素，对全省农用地和建设用地的集约利用状况、潜力进行了分析评价，并提出相应的对策措施。 1．1996年-2006年10年来整个省域的土地利用/覆盖格局变化。 （1）1996年-2006年全省的土地利用/覆盖格局 1996年，全省是一个以农用地为主的土地利用/覆盖格局，林地和牧草地属于优势覆盖类型（合占69.17%），居民点及工矿用地和交通用地合占只有3%左右。 2000年的LUCC格局较为明显的特点是耕地所占比重下降0.4个百分点，水域和未利用土地所占比重有所下降，牧草地保持不变，其余地类所占比重有所上升。 与2000年相比，2004年林草地的优势格局进一步得到强化（合占比重达到70.23%）。耕地面积占幅员面积的比重下降0.83个百分点，略有下降的有未利用土地、水域和牧草地。值得关注的是在“退耕还林还草”的大背景下，牧草地占幅员面积的比重下降0.04个百分点。 到2006年，仍为林草地为主导优势的格局，二者合占上升0.15%。在城市化快速推进的背景下，居民点及工矿用地中的城市用地和建制镇用地占比重超过15%，农村居民点占比重降至76%。交通用地中农村道路占比重降至57.8%,公路用地占比重升至37.5%。五个地貌区的土地利用/覆盖格局与全省的变化基本一致。值得关注的是盆西平原区的交通用地上升幅度和盆地丘陵区的未利用土地的开发利用力度明显大于其它地貌区。 （2）1996-2006年10年间土地利用/覆盖格局的变化 1996-2000年4年间，耕地、水域和未利用地三个地类下降，年均减少0.75、0.19和0.32个百分点。其中耕地年均减少49229.0公顷，约一半流向林地，13.77%流向园地，约20%流向建设用地。另外5个地类面积增长，增长绝对量最大的是林地，年均增长40063.7公顷，交通用地增幅最大，4年年均增长达1.95%。 2001-2004年是西部大开发逐步推进、“退耕还林还草”项目全面展开和土地整理深入实施的关键期，LUCC更为深刻。耕地、未利用地、水域和牧草地四个地类面积下降，其余地类按增长幅度依次是园地、交通用地、居民点及工矿用地和林地。耕地加速下降，年均降幅达到1.59%，其减少去向主要是林地（占66.75%）和园地（占19.84%），其增加来源主要是未利用地、园地和水域。交通用地的增幅最大，为3.96%,其增加主要来源于耕地、未利用土地和林地，分别占49.96%、16.63%和13.09%。居民点及工矿用地增长幅度为3.12%。 从1996年到2006年的10年间，耕地、未利用地、水域和牧草地下降幅度分别为10.36%、3.61%、1.34%和0.26%。园地增幅达23.61%。绝对面积增长最大的则是林地，达630733.3公顷。交通用地和居民点及工矿用地增幅也较大，分别为15.00%和9.31%。 10年间年均总变化量为310326.6公顷，2000年-2004年之间变化最大（为356865.8公顷），高于平均变化量，而1996-2000年间和2004-2006年间都小于平均变化量。 （3）10年间不同地貌区的LUCC变化 盆西平原区的特点是园地大幅上升达77%，居民点及工矿用地和交通用地也大幅上升，耕地、未利用地下降幅度大，该区耕地、水域、未利用地的减少强度和园地、居民点及工矿用地、交通用地的上升强度均居五区第一；盆地丘陵区的特点是牧草地下降幅度大，为-36.89%,交通用地、园地和林地上升幅度较大，该区耕地减少、未利用地减少、林地增加、居民点及工矿用地和交通用地增加的变化强度均居五区相应地类增减的第二位；盆周山地区的特点是耕地减少较多，交通用地和园地增长较大，该区林地变化强度居各区第一位，牧草地和水域变化强度居各区第二位，耕地、居民点及工矿用地和未利用地居各区第三位；川西南山地区的特点是园地、耕地、交通用地和居民点及工矿用地变化幅度大，另外四个地类变化较小。该区减少的牧草地占全省牧草地减少的97.91%，变化强度居各个地貌区的第一位，园地相对变化强度居五区的第二位；川西北高山高原区的特点是耕地大幅下降、园地大幅上升，交通用地升幅也较大，其余地类变化不大。值得注意的是，该区牧草地和水域面积增加，与全省该地类的变化相反。其余地类的相对变化强度均是五个地貌区中最小的。 用变化强度分值考量变化强度，盆西平原区的变化强度最大，盆地丘陵区和盆周山地区的变化强度相当，川西北高山高原区的变化强度则要小得多。 （4）1996年及2006年全省土地利用/覆盖格局的景观生态学分析 全省是以自然景观占优势（占约70%）、农业景观为补充、建设用地景观居于从属地位的土地利用景观格局。景观多样性和均匀度不高。到2006年，全省总的景观格局并无大的改变。总体情况是随着时间的推移和人类活动的加强，区内景观优势度上升、多样性和均匀度变小。但斑块数减少，斑块面积和斑块孔隙度有所增大。斑块的形状指数和分维数均有所下降，表明受人为干扰有加剧的趋势。反映景观格局结构的破碎度指数有轻微下降。景观指数的变化表明全省土地利用有缓慢集中、规模聚集的趋势。 （5）三大生态建设工程对土地利用/覆盖变化的影响 1996-2006年间LUCC与三大生态建设工程实施的耦合分析，发现退耕工程对耕地、林地、牧草地等地类覆盖变化的影响最大，天保工程次之，长防工程最小。 2.四川省LUCC驱动力分析 （1）总体分析： 从整体上分析，人为因素对区域整体LUCC的影响从1996年的63.32%增加到2006年的66.99%，变得日益强烈。同时人为因素影响强度表现出明显的区域差异，地势平缓、经济区位条件好的区域其人为影响强度明显较高。 政策体制转变下的经济高速增长、快速的城市化、工业化过程和生态建设是四川省LUCC宏观尺度的驱动因素。区域的LUCC主要受到了由内向外(从城市到乡村)和由外向内(从山顶向平地)两种作用力的共同推动。局部尺度上，如距离交通线、水利线、中心城市的远近，地形凸起、大型独立项目落址、重污染项目的阻隔等，甚至一些乡规民俗等因素也会成为LUCC的驱动影响因素。在较小的尺度上,人类个体行为选择对LUCC的影响也是存在的。 　　根据驱动因子的特性作者将其划分为驱变、阻变、良性、惰性因子等类型。 （2）分地貌区的驱动因子分析 各地貌区都存在城市化、工业化、生态工程实施、自然灾害等驱动因子，但主次不一。对于盆西平原和盆地丘陵区，城市化、工业化是前两位的因子，而对另外三个地貌区，生态工程实施和产业结构调整则成为第第一、二位的驱动因子。 （3）分地类的驱动因子分析（以坡耕地为例） 分坡度的耕地变化分析发现，耕地减少主要集中在2°以下的平地、15°-25°和25°以上三个坡度级，是其它坡度级耕地减幅的三倍左右。这表明耕地减少受城市化进程和“退耕还林还草”工程驱动影响尤为巨大。 3.土地利用格局优化、集约利用评价和可持续利用及对策研究 （1）土地利用格局优化的战略选择及调整预测 土地利用格局调整的战略是农业生产用地、建设用地和生态及其他用地占幅员的比重分别稳定在13%、7%和80%左右，重点是三大类别内部二级和三级地类的合理调整。 （2）全省土地集约利用评价 全省农用地利用集约度为0.46，总体上集约度不高，处于较适度利用阶段。建设用地利用集约度为0.38，处于较适度利用阶段。集约利用提升空间较大。 农用地的潜力主要在于加强土地保育、完善利用制度、提高单产。城市建设用地的包括存量潜力、强度潜力、结构潜力，空间很大。农村居民点整理潜力可以逐步挖掘。 （3）新增建设用地集约利用的统筹安排 据测算，到2020年，四川省城市建设用地需求量在463850-492360hm2之间，城镇各业新增建设用地规模为361276.79hm2，占用耕地200565.94 hm2。2004-2020年间四川省农村居民点整理潜力33.86万hm2。农村居民点建设用地需求量为70.57万公顷。 （4）土地集约利用措施与坡耕地可持续利用战略 提出了土地集约利用的措施。在对坡耕地生态系统结构与功能分析的基础上，提出坡耕地可持续利用战略与生态恢复战略，并从技术和政策层面提出了坡耕地合理利用和生态退耕的措施和建议。 LUCC is one of the key questions of global change and sustainable development of society. After the opening and reform of China, the society and economy of Sichuan Province developed very fast ,the land-use/cover changed very strong droved by many factors .But nowadays we have no constant spatial-temporal study and driving force analysis about the whole province based on investigation. And it is lack of land sustainable utilization study based on correlative study. So we choose all the land resource in Sichuan, combine RS and GIS and field investigation, and take statistic-mathematic means and system analysis, to study the LUCC patterns and different scale driving force of different physiognomy regions, land cover types and periods; to analyze the current situation and potential of land resource intensive utilization, and gave out corresponding measurements. We found that forest and grassland are the dominant cover types of Sichuan provincial land –use/cover pattern, and becoming more and more stronger from 1996 to 2006,the natural landscape is the metric and occupy 70%,the diversity and evenness index are not high; the totally change quantity from 2000 to 2004 is the biggest; cultivated land especially steep cultivated land ,garden plot, forestry land ,settlement and industry land and traffic land changed relative stronger; among five physiognomy regions ,the changing intensity of PEN XI PING YUAN QU is the biggest, CHUAN XI BEI GAO SHAN GAO QU is smallest; under the background of policy system changing, the fast developing of economy, fast urbanization and industrialization and ecology construction are the macro-scale driving force of Sichuan provincial LUCC; to compare the impacts of “TUI GENG GONG CHENG” on LUCC especially to cultivated land ,forestry land and grassland is strongest, “TIAN BAO GONG CHENG ” is stronger,“ HANG FANG GONG CHENG” is smallest; the intensive utilization level of farmland and construction land of whole province is relative moderation, there is huge potential to excavate and fulfill the increasing demand of construction land；we must take synthetic measurements to accelerate the sustainable utilization of land resource, including administrative, economical ,technological and ecological policies.

东北亚构造-盆地演化及油气资源控制作用

The oil and gas potential of Northeast Asia is enormous, but the degree of exploration is very low in Northeast Asia (the degree is below 3%-10%).The reasons are as follows: First, it is relatively difficult to study the oil and gas bearing basins(OGB), which are of multiple types, in different tectonic settings, with complex geologic frameworks and with long-term geologic evolution. Secondly, because of the non-equilibrium in development of economy and regional market, application of theories and techniques and the research levels in different countries, the conclusions are not conformable, and even contradictory. Thirdly, most of the former researches were limited to one territory or one basin, and lack of systematical and in-depth study on geotectonic evolution, classification of basins, and the evaluation of hydrocarbon resources. In this thesis, integrated study of the regional tectonic feature and basin features of Northeast Asia was done, to understand the basin evolution history and the controlling action on oil and gas. Then, new conclusions are and exploration proposals are as following: 1. Geotectonic evolution in Northeast Asia: The main structural motion system in Paleozoic Era was longitudinal, and in Meso-cenozoic was latitudinal with the Pacific Ocean. The whole evolution history was just the one of pulling-apart, cutting-out, underthrusting and collision of the Central Asia- Mongolia Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. 2. The evolution characteristics of basins in Northeast Asia: mainly developed from longitudinal paste-up, collision and relaxation rifting motion in Paleozoic-Early Mesozoic Era and from underthrust, accretion, and receding of subducted zone of the Pacific Ocean in Late Mesozoic Era-Cenozoic Era. 3. The research in basin classification of Northeast Asia: According to geotectonic system, the basins can be classified into three types: intracratonic, pericratonic and active zone basin. And they can be further classified into 18 different types according to genetic mechanism and dynamic features. 4. The master control factors of oil and gas accumulation in Northeast Asia: high quality cap-rock for craton and pericrationic basin, the effective source rock and high quality cap-rock for Mesozoic rifted basins, intra-arc, fore-arc and back-arc basins. Graded exploration potential of oil and gas for basin in Northeast Asia according to 7 factor, hereby, divided the oil and gas potential of basins into 5 levels. 5. Evaluation of hydrocarbon resources: The difference of resource potential among these basins is huge in Northeast Asia. The evaluation of Mesozoic rifted basin and Pacific Ocean basin showed that the large scale rifted basin and retroarc basin(including backarc marginal sea basin) have great resource potential. 6. The writer believes that the next step should pay more attention to the evaluation of petroleum resource in Far East part of Russia and trace them. On the other hand, according to integrated analysis of oil/gas resource potential and the operation difficulty in this area, suggests that East-Siberia basin, East-Gobi-Tamchag basin, Sakhalin basin, North-Okhotck basin, West-Kamchatka basin could be as cooperation priority basins in future.

油气勘探中的弱磁异常提取与区域场分析

Petroleum and natural gas is an important strategic resources. The short of the reserves will block the development of economy and threaten the safety of nation, along with the main oil fields of our country coming to the height of power and splendor of the exploitation and exploration. Therefore, it makes a great sense to inaugurate new explorative field and increase the reserves of petroleum and natural gas. Magnetic exploration is a main method of geophysics exploration. the developing observation apparatus and the perfect processing method provide wide space for magnetic exploration in these years. The method of magnetic bright spot is an application of magnetic exploration. The vertical migration of the hydrocarbon changes physical and chemical environment above the hydrocarbon reservoir, the new environment make tervalent iron translate into bivalent iron, that produce small scale magnetic anomaly, that is magnetic bright spot. The method of magnetic bright spot explores oil and gas field by the relation between the hydrocarbon and magnetic anomaly. This paper systemically research to pick-up and identify magnetic bright spot combining an oil field item, then point out advantaged area. In order to test the result, the author use the seismic information to superpose the magnetic bright spot, that prove the magnetic bright spot is reliable. then, the author complete a software to pick and identify the magnetic bright spot. The magnetic basement is very important to research forming and evolvement of the basin, especially, it is a crucial parameter of exploring residual basin in the research on pre-Cenozoic residual. This paper put forward a new method to inverse the interface of the magnetic layer on the basis of previous work, that is the method of separation of magnetic field step by step. The theory of this method is to translate the result of magnetic layer fluctuation to the result of magnetization density change, and the magnetic layer is flat, the paper choose thickness of magnetic layer as unit thickness, and define magnetic layer as a unit-thickness layer in order to convenient calculation, at the same time, define the variational magnetization density as equivalent magnetic density. Then we translate the relation between magnetic field and layer fluctuation to the relation between magnetic field and equivalent magnetic density, then, we can obtain the layer fluctuation through calculating equivalent magnetic density. Contrast to conventional parker method, model experimentation and example checkout prove this method is effective. The merit of this method is to avoid flat result in a strongly fluctuant area because of using a uniform average depth, the result of this method is closer to the fact, and this method is to inverse equivalent magnetic density, then translate equivalent magnetic density to layer fluctuation, this lays a foundation to inverse variational magnetic density in the landscape orientation and portrait.

均衡重力异常计算与综合解释——以黄海地区为例

Petroleum and Natural Gas is an important strategic resources. The reserves of Petroleum and Natural Gas can’t meet the need of our country, which also blocks the development of economy and threatens the safety of national. Therefore, it makes a great sense to bring “the second round of oil & gas exploration” into effect and study the exploration of oil and gas of Pre-Cenozoic residual basins in China. The integrated geophysical exploration is the main way to research the Pre-Cenozoic residual basins. Gravity exploration is one of the most important exploration methods, which has played an important role in oil and gas prospecting, such as compartmentalizing geotectonic elements, delineating the distribution range of sedimentary basins, searching oil and gas structure, abstracting oil and gas information, and so on, from its naissance. The isostatic gravity anomalies is significant for exploration, which can help us research deep crustal structure, the equilibrium state of earth, the geologic structure of shallow crust, the basement shape of sedimentary basins and the genetic evolution of sedimentary basins. In the paper, we stress the implication and physical meanings systemically, and discuss the calculation theory. On the basis of previous work, we test different isostatic compensation models and parameters to find out their influences to the result of isostatic gravity anomalies. In addition, we improve the method of isostatic gravity anomalies calculation and give a system of isostatic gravity anomalies calculation which is proved has satisfying effect. From the research above, we find that the results of Platt model and Airy model are consistent, which have similar form and almost the same value. However, by contrast, the Airy model is proved has better adaptability than Platt model. The two main parameters——crust thickness and density difference of crust and mantle, both have influence to the isostatic gravity anomalies, but the latter have more. Finally, we adopt the regional field extending edge method to make the result more of actual geologic condition. On the methods above, we calculate the isostatic gravity anomalies field in Yellow Sea area from the Bouguer gravity anomalies and the water depth and altitude data. And then the isostatic gravity anomalies character is analyzed and the integrated geological-geophysical interpretation is made on the basis of summarizing the previous research result systemically and analyzing other geophysical data and geological information. From the research, we find that the Yellow Sea area belongs to continental type crust equilibrium regions, where the isostatic gravity anomalies field is placid and has less fluctuation values, which implies that the area is in equilibrium state to different extends.

国有企业管理者裁员决策特征及其对留岗者心理影响的研究

In China, orgnizational change and downsizing are the primary topics studied in I/O psychology and Human Resource Management. Due to the great need in reality, both theorists and practitioners raised the same questions: Does downsizing increase the organizational performance? What is the relationship between organizational downsizing strategies and survivors' psychological reations? Which factors influence managers' downsizing decision-making most? How can managers manage the process successfully? The purpose of this study is trying to answer these questions, and then to establish the downsizing decision-making model of China's SOE (State owned enterprise) managers. The hypothetical model of SOE managers' downsizing decision-making was put forward, based on a tremendous amount of literature on downsizing decision-making, especially on the downsizing decision-making model built by B. Shaw, and also based on the results of the interviews conducted to the SOE managers who have the downsizing decision-making experiences. In order to test and verify the model, 322 SOE managers were investigated by a questionnaire study. And the statistic results supported the hypothetical downsizing decision-making model. Further, 259 survivors (those who are still working in the SOEs) from 7 downsized SOEs and 1 non-downsizing SOE, were also investigated by a questionnaire study. The statistic results also supported the hypothetical downsizing decision-making model. A subsequent case study was performed upon one downsized SOE; and a deliberate focus group interview study within 6 SOE mangers from another downsized SOE was also conducted. Both fundings from the two studies surported the hypothetical model again. Thus, China's SOE managers' downsizing decision-making model was established. This China's SOE managers' downsizing decision-making model suggests the following: Firstly, the characteristics of managers'downsizing decision-making were the center of the model. Those characteristics displayed during the process of the downsizing decision planning, the participation of downsizing decision-making and the communication concerning downsizing events, were influenced by managers' sense of crisis, controlling factors out of the organization and the managing experience within it. Especially, the latter two factors were more important. Secondly, in downsizing decision-making problems, the perceived crisis of China's SOE managers was mainly influenced by the outer factors, esp. the controlling factors from the government or the high authorities, but not by the inner factors including manufacturing management, HRM skills and organizational competition strategies. Thirdly, survivors'psychological reactions (including job satisfaction, job motivation, team working cooperation, etc) were mainly influenced by the characteristics of the managers' downsizing decision-making, at the same time, also by the outer factors (including controlling and social security factors) and the inner factors (including competition strategy and HRM skills). Finally, according to the model and the results from this study, the conclusions were reached in the followings: The stronger the controlling effort upon the SOE managers, the worse the effect displayed during the downsizing process. And in order to improve the effect and quality of downsizing decision-making, SOE managers need a lot of training to ameliorate their competencies such as competition strategies and HRM skills.