Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability

Both earthquake prediction and failure prediction of disordered brittle media are difficult and complicated problems and they might have something in common. In order to search for clues for earthquake prediction, the common features of failure in a simple nonlinear dynamical model resembling disordered brittle media are examined. It is found that the failure manifests evolution-induced catastrophe (EIC), i.e., the abrupt transition from globally stable (GS) accumulation of damage to catastrophic failure. A distinct feature is the significant uncertainty of catastrophe, called sample-specificity. Consequently, it is impossible to make a deterministic prediction macroscopically. This is similar to the question of predictability of earthquakes. However, our model shows that strong stress fluctuations may be an immediate precursor of catastrophic failure statistically. This might provide clues for earthquake forecasting.

The degree of predictability of earthquakes in several regions of China: statistical analysis of historical data

The stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic-rebound theory, is applied to the historical earthquake data from three strong earthquake-prone regions of China, including North China, Southwest China, and the Taiwan seismic regions. The results show that the seismicity along a plate boundary (Taiwan) is more active than in intraplate regions (North and Southwest China). The degree of predictability or regularity of seismic events in these seismic regions, based on both the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and fitted sensitivity parameters, follows the order Taiwan, Southwest China, and North China, which is further identified by numerical simulations. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Polygynous Mating System and Behavioural Reason of Black Crested Gibbon (Nomascus concolor jingdongensis) at Dazhaizi,Mt.Wuliang, Yunnan,China

2003年8月—2005年8月,对无量山大寨子5个黑长臂猿群体的结构和组成进行了观察。当一个群体在早晨鸣叫或依次通过树冠时,记录群体的结构和组成。每个群体都由1个成年雄性、2个成年雌性及其后代组成。2003年8月平均群体大小为6·2只;到2005年8月,平均群体大小发展为6·4只,其中有2个亚成年雄性从出生群迁出,且有3只幼猿出生。在3个群体(G1、G2和G3)中两个成年雌性都成功繁殖了后代。同一群体内两个成年雌性间无攻击或等级行为。2005年4月15日,当一只亚成年雌性进入G3的领域后,两只成年雌性对其进行追逐驱赶,并且干扰其与成年雄性配合进行二重唱,成年雄性没有直接驱赶流浪的亚成年雌性,10天后这只亚成年雌性离开了G3的领域。亚成年雄性经常与群体其他成员保持一定距离,并且在出生地通过独唱练习鸣叫。黑长臂猿可能通过亚成年雄性和雌性的迁出,及成年雌性对外来流浪雌性的驱赶维持这种一夫二妻的群体结构。

Acute behavioural stress facilitates long-term depression in temporoammonic-CAI pathway

Behavioural stress facilitates long-term depression in Schaffer collaterals-CAI pathway, but it is unknown whether it influences long-term depression in temporoammonic fibres-CAI. Here, we report that low-frequency stimulation induced long-term depression

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Equatorial pacific SSTA-related decadal variations of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate

Based on analysis of NCEP reanalysis data and SST indices of the recent 50 years, decadal changes of the potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies were investigated. Autocorrelation of Nino3 SST anomalies (SSTA) and correlation between atmospheric anomalies fields and Nino3 SSTA exhibit obvious variation in different decades, which indicates that Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies has significant decadal changes. Time around 1977 is not only a shift point of climate on the interdecadal time scale but also a catastrophe point of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate. As a whole, ENSO and the PNA pattern in boreal winter are more predictable in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s, while the Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of the Indian monsoon and the East Asian Monsoon is lower in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s.

Behavioural responses by yaks in different physiological states (lactating, dry or replacement heifers), when grazing natural pasture in the spring (dry and germinating) season on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau

Using heterogeneous vegetation in alpine grassland through grazing is a necessary component of deintensification of livestock systems and conservation of natural environments. However, better understanding of the dynamics of animal feeding behaviour would improve pasture and livestock grazing managements, particularly in the early part of the spring season when forage is scarce. The changes in behaviour may improve the use of poor pastures. Then, enhancing management practices may conserve pasture and improve animal productivity. Grazing behaviour over 24 In periods by yaks in different physiological states (lactating, dry and replacement heifers) was recorded in the early, dry and later, germinating period of the spring season. Under conditions of inadequate forage, the physiological state of yaks was not the primary factor affecting their grazing and ruminating behaviour. Forage and sward state affected yaks' grazing and ruminating behaviour to a greater extent. Generally, yaks had higher intake and spent more time grazing and ruminating during the later part of the spring season, following germination of forage, than during the earlier dry part of the season. However, the live weight of yaks was less during pasture germination than during the early dry part of the season because the herbage mass is low, and the yaks have to expend much energy to seek feed at this particular time. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Behavioural reaction of root vole (Microtus oeconomus pallas) males of different social ranks to familiar and novel odour of conspecific males

In this experiment, we tested the hypothesis that males of root voles (Microtus oeconomus Pallas) of different social ranks display different behavioural strategies. To document behavioural differences between social ranks, we investigated patterns in the behavioural responses to urine cues from familiar and novel individu in a choice maze. Ten pairs of male voles were efectively used in this experiment. All behaviour was recorded with OBSERVER 5.0. When experiment was finished, video tapes were transformed into digital data. Then all data were analyzed by SPSS. The results showed that the approach latency of subordinates was shorter for familiar odours than novel ones, dominant individuals preferentially entered the strange odourant box, subordinates preferred familiar odours over novel ones, subordinates spent more time visiting familiar odours compared to the novel odours, dominants preferred novel odours to familiar ones, subordinates approached familiar odours more frequently than novel ones and self-groomed more often in the familiar odourant box than in the novel box, and dominant and subordinate individuals showed significantly different countermarking behaviours to familiar and novel odours. In conclusion, the dominants and subordinates displayed different behaviour patterns when faced to familiar and novel conspecific males' urine cues. The data support our hypothesis that differences in social rank induce differences in behavioural patterns.