基于广义模型和分类回归树的中国常见树种地理分布模拟研究

研究植被、物种分布与环境的关系一直是生态学中的重点。长期以来，在全球变化与陆地生态系统的研究中，主要研究重点是对大尺度植被分布的模拟和预测，并建立了大量的气候－植被分布关系模型。而对于物种潜在分布的模拟和预测，国内外相关的研究较少。近年来，随着统计技术和地理信息系统的发展，用于预测物种分布的统计模型技术得到了迅速的发展。统计模型技术已被广泛应用于生物地理分布、植物群落、生物多样性、气候变化影响评估等方面。 本论文基于当前在物种分布研究中应用广泛的广义线性模型、广义加法模型及分类回归树3种统计模型技术，对我国常见树种的地理分布进行模拟分析，并比较不同模型模拟精度的优劣，将模拟精度较高的模型应用于预测未来气候情景下我国几种主要树种的未来潜在地理分布。 基于建立的广义线性模型（GLM）、二次项逐步回归广义线性模型（SGLM）、广义加法模型（GAM）和分类回归树（CART）4个模型对我国20种常见树种地理分布进行模拟，结果表明，4个模型均有较高的模拟精度。GAM的模拟精度最高;添加二次项并进行逐步回归有效的提高了GLM的模拟精度;CART是一种基于规则的模型技术，模拟结果比GLM稍好，比GAM略差。 对不同树种的模拟分析表明，4个模型对于主要分布在暖温带落叶阔叶林区域的油松、辽东栎分布的模拟结果较差;GLM对分布在温带针阔混交林中红松、蒙古栎、胡桃楸和糠椴的模拟结果不太理想;4个模型对分布在中国亚热带常绿阔叶林区域的树种均表现出较高的模拟精度;对广布种也表现出很高的模拟精度。 结合地理信息系统，以地图形式将青冈、油松的模拟结果表示出来。结果表明：地理信息系统直观的反映出了模型模拟结果差异。4个模型均能很好模拟青冈的分布，且模拟结果接近;而对油松分布模拟结果4个模型均不甚理想，以GLM最差。这些结果与模型模拟评估结果相吻合。 在未来气候变化情景下，基于4个模型模拟结果优劣，以我国三种主要造林树种马尾松、油松、红松和两种常见树种青冈、蒙古栎为研究对象，分析其未来变化趋势。结果表明，未来气候变化情景下，对于马尾松而言，4个模型均预测马尾松在基本保持原有分布的基础上，其未来潜在分布区域均有所扩大，且有向西和向北扩展的趋势;对于油松而言，基于GLM、SGLM和GAM3个模型，油松的未来潜在分布除有北移的趋势外，其分布区还将向东北和西南两个方向扩展;对于红松而言，基于SGLM、GAM和CART3个模型的预测结果较为接近，即红松的未来潜在分布区域将有所减少;对蒙古栎而言，4个模型预测蒙古栎未来分布均将向西扩展;对青冈而言，4个模型预测青冈能基本保持其原有分布区，并向西和向北扩展，其中CART预测结果还表明，青冈在广东南部及广西南部的分布区域将消失。

Land-cover classification of China: integrated analysis of AVHRR imagery and geophysical data

Over last two decades, numerous studies have used remotely sensed data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors to map land use and land cover at large spatial scales, but achieved only limited success. In this paper, we employed an approach that combines both AVHRR images and geophysical datasets (e.g. climate, elevation). Three geophysical datasets are used in this study: annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and elevation. We first divide China into nine bio-climatic regions, using the long-term mean climate data. For each of nine regions, the three geophysical data layers are stacked together with AVHRR data and AVHRR-derived vegetation index (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data, and the resultant multi-source datasets were then analysed to generate land-cover maps for individual regions, using supervised classification algorithms. The nine land-cover maps for individual regions were assembled together for China. The existing land-cover dataset derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images was used to assess the accuracy of the classification that is based on AVHRR and geophysical data. Accuracy of individual regions varies from 73% to 89%, with an overall accuracy of 81% for China. The results showed that the methodology used in this study is, in general, feasible for large-scale land-cover mapping in China.

Comparison Between Lurr And State Vector Analysis Before Strong Earthquakes In Southern California Since 1980

There are seven strong earthquakes with M >= 6.5 that occurred in southern California during the period from 1980 to 2005. In this paper, these earthquakes were studied by the LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) method and the State Vector method to detect if there are anomalies before them. The results show that LURR anomalies appeared before 6 earthquakes out of 7 and State Vector anomalies appeared before all 7 earthquakes. For the LURR method, the interval between maximum LURR value and the forthcoming earthquake is 1 to 19 months, and the dominant mean interval is about 10.7 months. For the State Vector method, the interval between the maximum modulus of increment State Vector and the forthcoming earthquake is from 3 to 27 months, but the dominant mean interval between the occurrence time of the maximum State Vector anomaly and the forthcoming earthquake is about 4.7 months. The results also show that the minimum valid space window scale for the LURR and the State Vector is a circle with a radius of 100 km and a square of 3 degrees 3 degrees, respectively. These results imply that the State Vector method is more effective for short-term earthquake prediction than the LURR method, however the LURR method is more effective for location prediction than the State Vector method.

A Breakdown Criterion of Free Molecular Flows and an Optimum Analysis of EBPVD

Two important issues in electron beam physical vapor deposition (EBPVD) are addressed. The first issue is a validity condition of the classical cosine law widely used in the engineering context. This requires a breakdown criterion of the free molecular assumption on which the cosine law is established. Using the analytical solution of free molecular effusion flow, the number of collisions (N-c) for a particle moving from an evaporative source to a substrate is estimated that is proven inversely proportional to the local Knudsen number at the evaporation surface. N-c = 1 is adopted as a breakdown criterion of the free molecular assumption, and it is verified by experimental data and DSMC results. The second issue is how to realize the uniform distributions of thickness and component over a large-area thin film. Our analysis shows that at relatively low evaporation rates the goal is easy achieved through arranging the evaporative source positions properly and rotating the substrate.

Adaptive image sequence coding based on global and local compensability analysis

Our study of a novel technique for adaptive image sequence coding is reported. The number of reference frames and the intervals between them are adjusted to improve the temporal compensability of the input video. The bits are distributed more efficiently on different frame types according to temporal and spatial complexity of the image scene. Experimental results show that this dynamic group-of-picture (GOP) structure coding scheme is not only feasible but also better than the conventional fixed GOP method in terms of perceptual quality and SNR. (C) 1996 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

PIXE and ICP-AES analysis of early glass unearthed from Xinjiang (China)

Early glasses (about 1066 BC-220 AD) unearthed from Xinjiang of China were chemically characterized by using PIXE and ICP-AES. It was found that these glasses were basically attributed to PbO-BaO-SiO2 system, K2O-SiO2 system, Na2O-CaO-SiO2 system and Na2O-CaO-PbO-SiO2 system. The results from the cluster analysis showed that some glasses had basically similar recipe and technology. The PbO-BaO-SiO2 glass and the K2O-SiO2 glass were thought to come from the central area and the south of ancient China, respectively. The part of the Na2O-CaO-SiO2 glass (including the Na2O-CaO-PbO-SiO2 glass) might be imported from Mesopotamia, while the other part might be locally produced. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Haplotype frequency distribution and linkage disequilibrium analysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms at the human FMO3 gene locus

We analyzed flavin-containing monooxygenase 3 (FMO3) polymorphisms, haplotype structure, and linkage disequilibrium (LD) in 256 Han Chinese and 50 African-American individuals to compare their haplotype frequencies and LD with other world populations. For

The complete mitochondrial genomes of two species from Sinocyclocheilus (Cypriniformes: Cyprinidae) and a phylogenetic analysis within Cyprininae

We determined the complete mitochondrial DNA sequences for two species of surface- and cave-dwelling-cyprinid fishes, Sinocyclocheilus grahami and S. altishoulderus. Sequence comparison of 13 protein-coding genes shows that the mutation pattern of each single gene is quite similar to those of other vertebrate animal species. Analysis of the ratios of Ka/Ks at these loci between Sinocyclocheilus and two other cyprinid species (Cyprinus carpio and Procypris rabaudi) show that Ka/Ks ratios are differed, consistent with purifying selection and variation in functional constraint among genes. Bayesian analysis and maximum likelihood analysis of the concatenated mitochondrial protein sequences for 14 cyprinid taxa support the monophyly of the family Cyprininae, and further confirm the monophyly of the genus Sinocyclocheilus. The two Sinocyclocheilus species fall within the Cyprinion-Onychostoma lineage, including Cyprinus, Carassius, and Procypris, rather than among the Barbinae, as previously suggested on morphological grounds.