Spatial distribution of soil heavy metal pollution estimated by different interpolation methods: Accuracy and uncertainty analysis

Mapping the spatial distribution of contaminants in soils is the basis of pollution evaluation and risk control. Interpolation methods are extensively applied in the mapping processes to estimate the heavy metal concentrations at unsampled sites. The performances of interpolation methods (inverse distance weighting, local polynomial, ordinary kriging and radial basis functions) were assessed and compared using the root mean square error for cross validation. The results indicated that all interpolation methods provided a high prediction accuracy of the mean concentration of soil heavy metals. However, the classic method based on percentages of polluted samples, gave a pollution area 23.54-41.92% larger than that estimated by interpolation methods. The difference in contaminated area estimation among the four methods reached 6.14%. According to the interpolation results, the spatial uncertainty of polluted areas was mainly located in three types of region: (a) the local maxima concentration region surrounded by low concentration (clean) sites, (b) the local minima concentration region surrounded with highly polluted samples; and (c) the boundaries of the contaminated areas. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study of remote sensing based parameter uncertainty in Production Efficiency Models

The remote sensing based Production Efficiency Models (PEMs), springs from the concept of "Light Use Efficiency" and has been applied more and more in estimating terrestrial Net Primary Productivity (NPP) regionally and globally. However, global NPP estimates vary greatly among different models in different data sources and handling methods. Because direct observation or measurement of NPP is unavailable at global scale, the precision and reliability of the models cannot be guaranteed. Though, there are ways to improve the accuracy of the models from input parameters. In this study, five remote sensing based PEMs have been compared: CASA, GLO-PEM, TURC, SDBM and VPM. We divided input parameters into three categories, and analyzed the uncertainty of (1) vegetation distribution, (2) fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the canopy (fPAR) and (3) light use efficiency (e). Ground measurements of Hulunbeier typical grassland and meteorology measurements were introduced for accuracy evaluation. Results show that a real-time, more accurate vegetation distribution could significantly affect the accuracy of the models, since it's applied directly or indirectly in all models and affects other parameters simultaneously. Higher spatial and spectral resolution remote sensing data may reduce uncertainty of fPAR up to 51.3%, which is essential to improve model accuracy.

The beta decay of N-21

The beta-delayed neutron and gamma energy spectra taken from the decay of neutron-rich nucleus N-21 were measured by using the beta - gamma and beta - n coincidence detection method. Thirteen new neutron groups ranging from 0.28MeV to 4.98 MeV and with a total branching ratio of 88.7 +/- 4.2% were observed and presented. One gamma transition with an energy of 1222 keV emitted from the excited state of O-21, and four gamma transitions with energies of 1674, 2397, 2780, and 3175 keV emitted from the excited states of O-20 were identified in the 3 decay chain of N-21. The beta decay half-life for N-21 is determined to be 82.9 +/- 1.9 ms. The uncertainty of half-life is much smaller than the previous result.

Fast simulation of the forward tracking detector of HPLUS

The necessity of installing a forward tracking detector stack is discussed for the Hadron Physics LanzhoU Spectrometer(HPLUS). A local tracker is developed to solve the multi-track finding problem. The track candidates are searched iteratively via Hough Transform. The fake tracks are removed by a least square fitting process. With this tracker we have studied the feasibility of pp -> pp + phi(-> K+K-), a typical physical channel proposed on HPLUS. The single track momentum resolution due to the uncertainty of the positioning in FTD is 1.3%. The multiple scattering effect contributes about 20% to the momentum resolution in the FTD coverage. The width and the signal-to-background ratio of the reconstructed phi are 1.51 MeV and 4.36, respectively, taking into account the direct Kaon channel pp -> pp + K+K- as background. The geometry coverage of FTD for phi events is about 85.4%. Based on the current fast simulation and estimation, the geometrical configuration of FTD meets the physical requirement of HPLUS under the current luminosity and multiplicity conditions. The tracker is applicable in the full simulation coming next and is extendable to other tracking component of HPLUS.

Uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China: a comparison between an AVHRR-derived dataset and a Landsat TM-derived dataset

The large uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China may have significant implications for major cross-cutting themes of global environmental change-food production and trade, water resources, and the carbon and nitrogen cycles. Many earlier studies have indicated significant under-reporting of cropland area in China from official agricultural census statistics datasets. Space-borne remote sensing analyses provide an alternative and independent approach for estimating cropland area in China. In this study, we report estimates of cropland area from the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD-96) at the 1:100,000 scale, which was generated by a multi-year National Land Cover Project in China through visual interpretation and digitization of Landsat TM images acquired mostly in 1995 and 1996. We compared the NLCD-96 dataset to another land cover dataset at I-km spatial resolution (the IGBP DIScover dataset version 2.0), which was generated from monthly Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from April, 1992 to March, 1993. The data comparison highlighted the limitation and uncertainty of cropland area estimates from the DIScover dataset. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent 2000-year geological records of mud in the inner shelf of the East China Sea and their climatic implications

AXIS(14)C dating and grain-size analysis for Core DD2, located at the north of the Yangtze River-derived mud off the Zhejiang-Fujian coasts in the inner shelf of the East China Sea, provide us a high-resolution grain-size distribution curve varying with depth and time. Data in the upper mud layer of Core DD2 indicate that there are at least 9 abrupt grain-size increasing in recent 2000 years, with each corresponding very well with the low-temperature events in Chinese history, which might result from the periodical strengthening of the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM), including the first-revealed maximum temperature lowering event at around 990 a BP. At the same time, the finer grain size section in Core DD2 agrees well with the Sui-Tang Warming Period (600-1000 a AD) defined previously by Zhu Kezhen, during which the climate had a warm, cold and warm fluctuation, with a dominated cooling period of 750-850 a AD. The Little Ice Age (LIA) can also be identified in the core. It starts around 1450 a AD and was followed by a subsequent cooling events at 1510, 1670 and 1840 a AD. Timing of these cold events revealed here still needs to be further verified owing to some current uncertainty of dating we used in this study.

Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability

Both earthquake prediction and failure prediction of disordered brittle media are difficult and complicated problems and they might have something in common. In order to search for clues for earthquake prediction, the common features of failure in a simple nonlinear dynamical model resembling disordered brittle media are examined. It is found that the failure manifests evolution-induced catastrophe (EIC), i.e., the abrupt transition from globally stable (GS) accumulation of damage to catastrophic failure. A distinct feature is the significant uncertainty of catastrophe, called sample-specificity. Consequently, it is impossible to make a deterministic prediction macroscopically. This is similar to the question of predictability of earthquakes. However, our model shows that strong stress fluctuations may be an immediate precursor of catastrophic failure statistically. This might provide clues for earthquake forecasting.

A Microtube Viscometer with a Thermostat

The viscometer presented in this paper is suit-able for measuring the viscosity of liquids in micro-litre quantities. It consists of a micro-flow experimental system with a thermostat. Using the measurements of the flow rates and pressure drops of a liquid passing through a microtube, the liquid's viscosity can be calculated from on Hagen-Poiseuille theory. After calibration, the viscometer was used to measure viscosities of deionized water and ethyl alcohol at temperatures ranging from 0 to 40 "C. For both test liquids, the relative deviation of the measured values from those quoted in the literature (obtained using other viscometers) was less than 2.6o/o. The relative uncertainty of the experimental system was reduced to +-l.8% using the relative measuring method. Due to the micro-scale of the test section, only a micro-litre quantity of liquid is needed for a test, this is a potential advantage for measurement of bio-liquid viscosities.

Elastic and statistically brittle (ESB) model, damage localization and catastrophic rupture

In this paper, an elastic and statistically brittle (ESB) model is applied to the process of damage evolution induced catastrophic rupture and the influence of localization and softening on catastrophic rupture is discussed. According to the analysis, the uncertainty of catastrophic rupture should be attributed to the unknown scale of localized zone. Based on the elastic and statistically brittle model but local mean field approximation, the relation between the scale of localized zone and catastrophic rupture is obtained and then justified with experiments. These results can not only give a deeper understanding of the mechanism governing catastrophic rupture, but also provide a possible tool to foresee the occurrence of catastrophic rupture.

基于高精度差动干涉仪的微伽重力仪

本文提出的微伽绝对重力仪基于高精度、高稳定的差动干涉仪。详细研究了重力仪的距离测量技术，自由落体运动的距离测量实验表明，本文提出的高精度差动干涉仪可以满足相对不确定度达6.4×10^(-9)的微伽绝对重力仪要求。而且，差动干涉仪比目前广泛应用于绝对重力仪的Mach-Zehnder干涉仪更稳定。

土壤稳定入渗速率空间插值不确定性研究

以黄土丘陵沟壑第三副区的藉河流域为研究区,根据65个实测点数据,采用普通克里格法、反距离权重法、样条函数法等插值方法,分析了测点数量变化、栅格像元尺寸变化及插值方法的差异对土壤稳定入渗速率空间插值结果的影响,剖析了空间插值中的不确定性。结果表明:(1)参与插值站点越多,所得插值结果不确定性越小;(2)像元尺寸在25~800 m间变化对土壤稳定入渗速率的插值结果影响微弱;(3)不同插值方法对插值结果的精度影响较大,说明插值方法的差异对插值结果的不确定性有较大影响。

Charged and strange hadron elliptic flow in Cu plus Cu collisions at root s(NN)=62.4 and 200 GeV

We present the results of an elliptic flow, v(2), analysis of Cu + Cu collisions recorded with the solenoidal tracker detector (STAR) at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider at root s(NN) = 62.4 and 200 GeV. Elliptic flow as a function of transverse momentum, v(2)(p(T)), is reported for different collision centralities for charged hadrons h(+/-) and strangeness-ontaining hadrons K-S(0), Lambda, Xi, and phi in the midrapidity region vertical bar eta vertical bar < 1.0. Significant reduction in systematic uncertainty of the measurement due to nonflow effects has been achieved by correlating particles at midrapidity, vertical bar eta vertical bar < 1.0, with those at forward rapidity, 2.5 < vertical bar eta vertical bar < 4.0. We also present azimuthal correlations in p + p collisions at root s = 200 GeV to help in estimating nonflow effects. To study the system-size dependence of elliptic flow, we present a detailed comparison with previously published results from Au + Au collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV. We observe that v(2)(p(T)) of strange hadrons has similar scaling properties as were first observed in Au + Au collisions, that is, (i) at low transverse momenta, p(T) < 2 GeV/c, v(2) scales with transverse kinetic energy, m(T) - m, and (ii) at intermediate p(T), 2 < p(T) < 4 GeV/c, it scales with the number of constituent quarks, n(q.) We have found that ideal hydrodynamic calculations fail to reproduce the centrality dependence of v(2)(p(T)) for K-S(0) and Lambda. Eccentricity scaled v(2) values, v(2)/epsilon, are larger in more central collisions, suggesting stronger collective flow develops in more central collisions. The comparison with Au + Au collisions, which go further in density, shows that v(2)/epsilon depends on the system size, that is, the number of participants N-part. This indicates that the ideal hydrodynamic limit is not reached in Cu + Cu collisions, presumably because the assumption of thermalization is not attained.

基于GIS的小流域坡耕地调查方法探讨

坡耕地研究是水土流失治理及水土保持规划的核心内容 ,GIS的发展及其在多领域的成功应用为坡耕地研究提供了新的技术手段。用矢量基础图件叠加来获取单元图斑的方法是GIS的基本功能 ,但叠加多边形的不确定性成为影响GIS数据质量的灾难性因素。以MapGIS作为基础平台 ,以DOM作为控制底图更新信息 ,采取矢栅叠加的方法获得单元图斑 ,用操作属性表获取专题属性 ,进行小流域坡耕地快速调查的研究 ,展示了矢栅叠加方法在信息复合过程中的显著优势。

Deformation Monitoring and Forecasting Model Study Based on Grey System Theory

The grey system theory studies the uncertainty of small sample size problems. This paper using grey system theory in the deformation monitoring field, based on analysis of present grey forecast models, developed the spatial multi-point model. By using residual modification, the spatial multi-point residual model eras developed in further study. Then, combined with the sedimentation data of Xiaolangdi Multipurpose Dam, the results are compared and analyzed, the conclusion has been made and the advantages of the residual spatial multi-point model has been proved.

基于神经网络的水泥生料配料多目标优化设计方法

为了降低生料成分的不确定性给水泥生料质量控制系统带来的影响,提出了率值补偿的控制策略.分别为三率值创建目标函数,并利用状态空间搜索策略解决多目标优化问题.针对初始样本空间不能覆盖所有样本的问题,提出了基于神经网络的估算模型,对初始样本空间进行拓扑.通过估价函数对状态空间中的状态量进行评价,得到最优的率值状态量;根据率值对原料配比进行调整,最后使率值偏差得到补偿,同时使给配比造成的波动最小.工业实验结果表明,生料的质量合格率由原来的30%提高到50%,该系统能有效地对配料过程进行优化控制.证明了基于神经网络的状态空间搜索策略为水泥生料配料多目标寻优问题提供了一种可行的方法。