Numerical calculation of the response of the south China sea to typhoon imbudo

The response of the South China Sea (SCS) to Typhoon Imbudo was examined using POM model. The results indicated that SST decreased by 2-6 degrees C with a rightward-biased response as Typhoon Imbudo passed across the SCS. Due to a strong mixing process, the mixed layer (ML) depth deepened as much as 10-60 m and ML heat budget lost 824.78 W/m(2), which was OF dominated by the vertical mixing. By the response of upper ML heat transport, the temperature below the ML increased and oscillated near the inertial period. Furthermore, strong inertial currents were generated by the storm with the max currents up to 1.4 m/s in the upper ML.

Speed ambiguity in hurricane wind retrieval from SAR imagery

Under strong ocean surface wind conditions, the normalized radar cross section of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is dampened at certain incident angles, compared with the signals under moderate winds. This causes a wind speed ambiguity problem in wind speed retrievals from SAR, because two solutions may exist for each backscattered signal. This study shows that the problem is ubiquitous in the images acquired by operational space-borne SAR sensors. Moreover, the problem is more severe for the near range and range travelling winds. To remove this ambiguity, a method was developed based on characteristics of the hurricane wind structure. A SAR image of Hurricane Rita (2005) was analysed to demonstrate the wind speed ambiguity problem and the method to improve the wind speed retrievals. Our conclusions suggest that a speed ambiguity removal algorithm must be used for wind retrievals from SAR in intense storms and hurricanes.

大气季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响研究

利用ERA40逐日再分析资料、NCEP/NCAR2逐日再分析资料、中国740个测站日降水资料、上海台风研究所提供的西太平洋热带气旋资料、Kaplan等重建的月平均SSTA资料、NOAA逐日长波辐射（OLR）等资料，应用离散功率谱分析、带通滤波、EOF分析等统计方法，研究了东亚夏季风(EASM）的移动特征、东亚地区季节内振荡(ISO)的基本特征、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风异常活动的影响机理。主要结论如下： （1）综合动力和热力因素定义了可动态描述东亚夏季风移动和强度的指数，并利用该指数研究了东亚夏季风的爆发和移动的季节内变化及其年际和年代际变化特征。研究发现，气候平均东亚夏季风前沿分别在28候、33候、36候、38候、40候、44候出现了明显的跳跃。东亚夏季风活动具有显著的年际变率，主要由于季风前沿在某些区域异常停滞和突然跨越北跳或南撤引起，造成中国东部旱涝灾害频繁发生。东亚夏季风的活动具有明显的年代际变化，在1965年、1980年、1994年发生了突变，造成中国东部降水由“南旱北涝”向“南涝北旱”的转变。 （2）东亚季风区季节内变化具有10~25d和30~60d两个波段的季节内振荡周期，以30-60d为主。存在三个主要低频模态，第一模态主要表征了EASM在长江中下游和华北地区活动期间的低频形势；第二模态印度洋-菲律宾由低频气旋式环流控制，主要表现了ISO在EASM爆发期间的低频形势；第三模态主要出现在EASM在华南和淮河活动期间的低频形势。第一模态和第三模态是代表东亚夏季风活动异常的主要低频形势。 （3）热带和副热带地区ISO总是沿垂直切变风的垂直方向传播。因此，在南海-菲律宾东北风垂直切变和副热带西太平洋北风垂直切变下，大气热源激发菲律宾附近交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播，副热带西太平洋ISO以向西传播为主。中高纬度地区，乌拉尔山附近ISO以向东、向南移动或局地振荡为主；北太平洋中部ISO在某些情况下向南、向西传播。 （4）季风爆发期，伴随着热带东印度洋到菲律宾一系列低频气旋和低频反气旋， 冷空气向南输送，10~25天和30~60天季节内振荡低频气旋同时传入南海加快了南海夏季风的爆发。在气候态下，ISO活动表现的欧亚- 太平洋（EAP）以及太平洋-北美（PNA）低频波列分布特征(本文提出的EAP和PNA低频波列与传统意义上的二维定点相关得到的波列不同)。这种低频分布形式使得欧亚和太平洋中高纬度的槽、脊及太平洋副热带高压稳定、加强，东亚地区的低频波列则成为热带和中高纬度ISO相互作用影响东亚夏季风活动的纽带。不同的阶段表现不同的低频模态，30~60d低频模态的转变加快了EASM推进过程中跳跃性；30-60d低频模态的维持使得EASM前沿相对停滞。 （5）30-60d滤波场，菲律宾海域交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播到南海-西太平洋一带。当南海-西太平洋地区低频气旋活跃时，季风槽加强、东伸，季风槽内热带气旋（TC）频数增加；当南海-西太平洋低频反气旋活跃时，季风槽减弱、西退，TC处于间歇期，生成位置不集中。 （6）在El Nino态下，大气季节内振荡偏弱，北传特征不明显，但ISO由中高纬度北太平洋中部向南和副热带西太平洋向西的传播特征显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第三模态为主，EASM集中停滞在华南和淮河流域，常伴随着持续性区域暴雨的出现，易造成华南和江淮流域洪涝灾害，长江和华北持续干旱。在La Nina态下，大气季节内振荡活跃，且具有明显的向北传播特征，PNA低频波列显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第一模态单峰为主；EASM主要停滞在长江中下游和华北地区，这些地区出现异常持续强降水，华南和淮河流域多干旱；在El Nino态向La Nina态转换期，ISO活动以第一模态双峰为主，长江中下游常常出现二度梅。

Vortex dynamics in the studies of looping in tropical cyclone tracks

This paper proposes criteria for predicting the tendency of looping in tropical cyclone tracks using the approach of vortex dynamics. We model the asymmetric structure of a cyclone by a system of vortex patches. The evolution of such system of vortices is simulated by the method of contour dynamics. A new set of exact analytic formulas for contour dynamics calculations is derived, which is shown to be more computationally effective. Based on point-vortex models, we derive analytic formulas for the criteria of looping in a cyclone track. From numerical experiments, the simulated trajectories obtained from the point-vortex system and vortex patch system agree quite well. Hence, the looping criteria obtained from the point-vortex system can be applied by forecasters to stay alert for tendency of looping in a cyclone track. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed criteria, the trajectory of Typhoon Yancy (9012), whose field data are available from ''TCM-90'', is simulated. The case study shows that the asymmetric structure similar to the pattern of a beta gyre is responsible for its recurvature when Yancy landed Fujian Province, China on 20 August 1990.