Forecasting Daily Chlorophyll a Concentration during the Spring Phytoplankton Bloom Period in Xiangxi Bay of the Three-Gorges Reservoir by Means of a Recurrent Artificial Neural Network

A recurrent artificial neural network was used for 0-and 7-days-ahead forecasting of daily spring phytoplankton bloom dynamics in Xiangxi Bay of Three-Gorges Reservoir with meteorological, hydrological, and limnological parameters as input variables. Daily data from the depth of 0.5 m was used to train the model, and data from the depth of 2.0 m was used to validate the calibrated model. The trained model achieved reasonable accuracy in predicting the daily dynamics of chlorophyll a both in 0-and 7-days-ahead forecasting. In 0-day-ahead forecasting, the R-2 values of observed and predicted data were 0.85 for training and 0.89 for validating. In 7-days-ahead forecasting, the R-2 values of training and validating were 0.68 and 0.66, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that most ecological relationships between chlorophyll a and input environmental variables in 0-and 7-days-ahead models were reasonable. In the 0-day model, Secchi depth, water temperature, and dissolved silicate were the most important factors influencing the daily dynamics of chlorophyll a. And in 7-days-ahead predicting model, chlorophyll a was sensitive to most environmental variables except water level, DO, and NH3N.

A non-linear perturbation model considering catchment wetness and its application in river flow forecasting

A non-linear perturbation model for river flow forecasting is developed, based on consideration of catchment wetness using an antecedent precipitation index (API). Catchment seasonality, of the form accounted for in the linear perturbation model (the LPM), and non-linear behaviour both in the runoff generation mechanism and in the flow routing processes are represented by a constrained nan-linear model, the NLPM-API. A total of ten catchments, across a range of climatic conditions and catchment area magnitudes, located in China and in other countries, were selected for testing daily rainfall-runoff forecasting with this model. It was found that the NLPM-API model was significantly more efficient than the original linear perturbation model (the LPM). However, restric tion of explicit nan-linearity to the runoff generation process, in the simpler LPM-API form of the model, did not produce a significantly lower value of the efficiency in flood forecasting, in terms of the model efficiency index R-2. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Deformation Monitoring and Forecasting Model Study Based on Grey System Theory

The grey system theory studies the uncertainty of small sample size problems. This paper using grey system theory in the deformation monitoring field, based on analysis of present grey forecast models, developed the spatial multi-point model. By using residual modification, the spatial multi-point residual model eras developed in further study. Then, combined with the sedimentation data of Xiaolangdi Multipurpose Dam, the results are compared and analyzed, the conclusion has been made and the advantages of the residual spatial multi-point model has been proved.

Application of forecasting structural cracks technique of 3D move in Chengdao buried hill

3DMove software, based on the three-dimension structural model of geologic interpretation, can forecast reservoir cracks from the point of view of formation of the structural geology, and analyze the characteristics of the cracks. 3DMove software dominates in forecasting cracks. We forecast the developments and directions of the cracks in Chengbei buried hill with the application of forecasting technique in 3DMove software, and obtain the chart about strain distributing on top in buried hill and the chart about relative density and orientation and the chart about the analysis of crack unsealing. In Chengbei 30 buried hill zone, north-west and north-east and approximately east-west cracks in Cenozoic are very rich and the main directions in every fault block are different. Forecasting results that are also verified by those of drilling approximately accord with the data from well logging, the case of which shows that the technique has the better ability in forecasting cracks, and takes more effects on exploration and exploitation of crack reservoir beds in ancient buried hill reservoirs.

砂砾岩储层流动单元四维模型研究

This article is an important part of "95" technological subject of SINOPEC. It has a large number of difficulties and workloads, and has significant theoretical meanings and practical value. The study area is composed of sandstone & conglomerate reservoir of alluvial fan & fan delta, which belong to Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member of lower tertiary of Yong'an Town Oilfield in Dongying Depression. The target stataum develops in the hanging wall of the synsedimentary fault in the scarp zone of Dongying Depression. The frequently intense movements result in the variation of sandstone and conglomerate reservoir and the evolution of the time and space of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member in Yong'an Town Oilfield. As a result, it is difficult for the individual reservoir correlation at the root of fan, which bring about a tackle problem for the exploitation of oilfield. In this background, the research of fluid units will be more difficult. In this article, the new concepts, the new methods, and the new techniques of sedimentology, petroleum geology, reservoir geology, physics of crystal surface, dynamic & static state reservoir description and well logging geology are synthetically applied, and the computer technology are made full uses of, and the identifying, dividing and appraising of the two-formation-type sandstone & conglomerate reservoir fluid units of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member systemically analyzed in Yong'an Town Oilfield, Dongying Depression. For the first time, the single-well model, the section model, the plane model, the nuclear magnetism log model, the microcosmic network model, the 4-D geology model and the simulation model of the two-formation-type reservoir fluid units of the of sandstone & conglomerate reservoir of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member are established, and the formative mechanism and distributing & enrichment laws of oil-gas of the two type of sandstone and conglomerate reservoir fluid units are revealed. This article established the optimizing, identifying, classifying and appraising standard of the two-formation-type reservoir fluid units of the of sandstone and conglomerate reservoir of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member, which settles the substantial foundations for static state model of the fluid units, reveals the macroscopic & microcosmic various laws of geometrical static state of the fluid units, and instructs the oil exploitation. This article established static state model of the two-formation-type sandstone and conglomerate reservoir fluid units by using the multi-subject theories, information and techniques, and reveals the geometrical configuration, special distribution and the oil-gas enrichment laws of the sandstone and conglomerate reservoir fluid units. For the first time, we established the nuclear magnetism log model of the two-formation-type sandstone and conglomerate reservoir of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member, which reveals not only the character and distributing laws of the porosity and permeability, bat also the formation and distribution of the movable fluid. It established six type of microcosmic net model of the two-formation-type sandstone and conglomerate reservoir of Sha3 lower member and Sha4 upper member in the working area by using the advanced theories, such as rock thin section, SEM, image analysis, intrusive mercury, mold, rock C.T. measure & test image etc., which reveals the microcosmic characteristic of porosity & throat, filterate mode and microcosmic oil-gas enrichment laws of the sandstone and conglomerate reservoir. For the first time, it sets up the 4-D model and mathematic model of the sandstone and conglomerate reservoir, which reveals the distributing and evolving laws of macroscopic & microcosmic parameters of the two-formation-type sandstone and conglomerate reservoir and oil-gas in 4-D space. At the same time, it also forecasts the oil-gas distribution and instructs the oilfield exploitation. It established reservoir simulation model, which reveals the filterate character and distributing laws of oil-gas in different porosity & throat net models. This article established the assistant theories and techniques for researching, describing, indicating and forecasting the sandstone and conglomerate reservoir fluid units, and develops the theories and techniques of the land faces faulted basin exploitation geology. In instructing oilfield exploitation, it had won the notable economic & social benefits.