中国大陆及邻区地震活动背景、环境触发与地震预测研究

This dissertation that includes most of the P. PH.D research work during 2001~2002 covers the large-scale distribution of continental earthquakes in mainland China, the mechanism and statistic features of grouped strong earthquakes related to the tidal triggering, some results in earthquake prediction with correlativity analysis methods, and the flushes from the two strong continental earthquakes in South Asia in 2001. Mainland China is the only continental sub-plate that is compressed by collision boundaries at its two sides, within which earthquakes are dispersive and distributed as seismic belts with different widths. The control capability of the continental block boundaries on the strong earthquakes and seismic hazards is calculated and analyzed in this dissertation. By mapping the distribution of the 31282 ML:3s2,0 earthquakes, I found that the depth of continental earthquakes depend on the tectonic zonings. The events on the boundaries of relatively integrated blocks are deep and those on the new-developed ruptures are shallow. The average depth of earthquakes in the West of China is about 5km deeper than that in the east. The western and southwestern brim of Tarim Basin generated the deepest earthquakes in mainland China. The statistic results from correlation between the grouped M7 earthquakes and the tidal stress show that the strong events were modulated by tidal stress in active periods. Taking Taiwan area as an example, the dependence of moderate events on the moon phase angles (￡>) is analyzed, which shows that the number of the earthquakes in Taiwan when D is 50° ,50° +90° and 50° +180° is more than 2 times of standard deviation over the average frequency at each degree, corresponding to the 4th, 12th and 19th solar day after the new moon. The probability of earthquake attack to the densely populated Taiwan island on the 4th solar day is about 4 times of that on other solar days. On the practice of earthquake prediction, I calculated and analyzed the temporal correlation of the earthquakes in Xinjinag area, Qinghai-Tibet area, west Yunnan area, North China area and those in their adjacent areas, and predicted at the end of 2000 that it would be a special time interval from 2001 to 2003, within which moderate to strong earthquakes would be more active in the west of China. What happened in 2001 partly validated the prediction. Within 10 months, there were 2 great continental earthquakes in south Asia, i.e., the M7.8 event in India on Jan 26 and M8.1 event in China on Nov. 14, 2001, which are the largest earthquake in the past 50 years both for India and China. No records for two great earthquakes in Asia within so short time interval. We should speculate the following aspects from the two incidences: The influence of the fallacious deployment of seismic stations on the fine location and focal mechanism determination of strong earthquakes must be affronted. It is very important to introduce comparative seismology research to seismic hazard analysis and earthquake prediction research. The improvement or changes in real-time prediction of strong earthquakes with precursors is urged. Methods need to be refreshed to protect environment and historical relics in earthquake-prone areas.

序列视觉信息整合的特性与机制

One of the great puzzles in the psychology of visual perception is that the visual world appears to be a coherent whole despite our viewing it through temporally discontinuous series of eye fixations. The investigators attempted to explain this puzzle from the perspective of sequential visual information integration. In recent years, investigators hypothesized that information maintained in the visual short-term memory (VSTM) could become visual mental images gradually during time delay in visual buffer and integrated with information perceived currently. Some elementary studies had been carried out to investigate the integration between VSTM and visual percepts, but further research is required to account for several questions on the spatial-temporal characteristics, information representation and mechanism of integrating sequential visual information. Based on the theory of similarity between visual mental image and visual perception, this research (including three studies) employed the temporal integration paradigm and empty cell localization task to further explore the spatial-temporal characteristics, information representation and mechanism of integrating sequential visual information (sequential arrays). The purpose of study 1 was to further explore the temporal characteristics of sequential visual information integration by examining the effects of encoding time of sequential stimuli on the integration of sequential visual information. The purpose of study 2 was to further explore the spatial characteristics of sequential visual information integration by investigating the effects of spatial characteristics change on the integration of sequential visual information. The purpose of study 3 was to explore the information representation of information maintained in the VSTM and integration mechanism in the process of integrating sequential visual information by employing the behavioral experiments and eye tracking technology. The results indicated that: (1) Sequential arrays could be integrated without strategic instruction. Increasing the duration of the first array could cause improvement in performance and increasing the duration of the second array could not improve the performance. Temporal correlation model was not fit to explain the sequential array integration under long-ISI conditions. (2) Stimuli complexity influenced not only the overall performance of sequential arrays but also the values of ISI at asymptotic level of performance. Sequential arrays still could be integrated when the spatial characteristics of sequential arrays changed. During ISI, constructing and manipulating of visual mental image of array 1 were two separate processing phases. (3) During integrating sequential arrays, people represented the pattern constituted by the objects' image maintained in the VSTM and the topological characteristics of the objects' image had some impact on fixation location. The image-perception integration hypothesis was supported when the number of dots in array 1 was less than empty cells, and the convert-and-compare hypothesis was supported when the number of the dot in array 1 was equal to or more than empty cells. These findings not only contribute to make people understand the process of sequential visual information integration better, but also have significant practical application in the design of visual interface.

Spatial and temporal variations of microcystins in hepatopancreas of a freshwater snail from Lake Taihu

In this paper, spatial and temporal variations of three common microcystins (MC-RR, MC-YR, and MC-LR) in the hepatopancreas of a freshwater snail (Bellamya aeruginosa) were studied monthly in two bays of Lake Taihu. Microcystins (MCs) concentration in hepatopancreas was quantified by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS). The MCs concentrations in hepatopancreas were higher at Site 1 than those at other sites, which was in agreement with the changes of intracellular MCs concentrations in the water column. There was a significant correlation between MCs concentrations in the hepatopancreas and that in the seston, suggesting that spatial variances of MCs; concentrations in hepatopancreas among the five sites were due to spatial changes of toxic Microcystis cells in the water column. PCCA indicates that in addition to Microcystis, other factors (e.g., water temperature) also substantially affected the accumulation of MCs in hepatopancreas of the snail. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier Inc.

Temporal and spatial variations in the species composition, distribution, and abundance of protozoa in East Dongting lake, China

Investigations of protozoa were carried out during four surveys of East Dongting Lake, China. A total of 160 protozoan species belonging to 71 genera was identified, of which 53 were flagellates, 37 sarcodines, and 70 ciliates. Among them, Peritrichida (32.6% of frequency), Arcellinida (16.2%), Volvocales (13.61/6), Peridiniales (13.1%), and Chrysomonadales (9.1%) were the main groups and contributed to 84.5% of the overall species. Ciliates were mainly composed of sessile species and small species. The total protozoan abundance varied from 2,400 cells L-1 to 20,250 cells L-1. The highest protozoan abundance occurred in spring; the lowest number was in autumn. The highest abundance of ciliates occurred in spring and winter, whereas flagellates developed the highest abundance in,summer and autumn. Pearson correlation analysis and linear regressions indicated that chlorophyll a and water velocity were the main factors affecting ternporal and spatial variations of the protozoan abundance.

Correlation between Discharging Property and Coatings Microstructure during Plasma Electrolytic Oxidation

The voltage-current properties during plasma electrolytic discharge were determined by measuring the current density and cell voltage as functions of processing time and then by mathematical transformation. Correlation between discharge I-V property and the coatings microstructure on aluminum alloy during plasma electrolfic oxidation was determined by comparing the voltage-current properties at different process stages with SEM results of the corresponding coatings. The results show that the uniform passive film corresponds to a I-V property with one critical voltage, and a compound of porous layer and shred ceramic particles corresponds to a I-Vproperty with two critical voltages. The growth regularity of PEO cermet coatings was also studied.

Effects of Subgrid-Scale Modeling on Time Correlations in Large Eddy Simulation

The effects of the unresolved subgrid-scale (SGS) motions on the energy balance of the resolved scales in large eddy simulation (LES) have been investigated actively because modeling the energy transfer between the resolved and unresolved scales is crucial to constructing accurate SGS models. But the subgrid scales not only modify the energy balance, they also contribute to temporal decorrelation of the resolved scales. The importance of this effect in applications including the predictability problem and the evaluation of sound radiation by turbulent flows motivates the present study of the effect of SGS modeling on turbulent time correlations. This paper compares the two-point, two-time Eulerian velocity correlation in isotropic homogeneous turbulence evaluated by direct numerical simulation (DNS) with the correlations evaluated by LES using a standard spectral eddy viscosity. It proves convenient to express the two-point correlations in terms of spatial Fourier decomposition of the velocity field. The LES fields are more coherent than the DNS fields: their time correlations decay more slowly at all resolved scales of motion and both their integral scales and microscales are larger than those of the DNS field. Filtering alone is not responsible for this effect: in the Fourier representation, the time correlations of the filtered DNS field are identical to those of the DNS field itself. The possibility of modeling the decorrelating effects of the unresolved scales of motion by including a random force in the model is briefly discussed. The results could have applications to the problem of computing sound sources in isotropic homogeneous turbulence by LES

Analysis of ingredient and heating value of municipal solid waste

Great differences between municipal solid wastes(MSW)produced at different places and different times in terms of such parameters as physical ingredient and heating value lead to difficulty in effective handling of MSW. In this paper, ingredient, heating value and their temporal varying trends of typical MSW in Beijing were continuously measured and analyzed. With consideration of the process in pyrolysis and incineration, correlation between physical ingredients and heating values was induced, favorable for evaluation of heating value needed in handling of MSW from simple analysis of physical ingredients of it.

Numerical Investigation on Laser Transformation Hardening with Different Temporal Pulse Shapes

A 3-D numerical model for pulsed laser transformation hardening (LTH) is developed using the finite element method. In this model, laser spatial and temporal intensity distribution, temperature-dependent thermophysical properties of material, and multi-phase transformations are considered. The influence of laser temporal pulse shape on connectivity of hardened zone, maximum surface temperature of material and hardening depth is numerically investigated at different pulse energy levels. Results indicate that these hardening parameters are strongly dependent on the temporal pulse shape. For the rectangular temporal pulse shape, the temperature field obtained from this model is in excellent agreement with analytical solution, and the predicted hardening depth is favorably compared with experimental one. It should be pointed out that appropriate temporal pulse shape should be selected according to pulse energy level in order to achieve desirable hardening quality under certain laser spatial intensity distribution.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Spatial and Temporal Variation of LURR and Its Implication for the Tendency of Earthquake Occurrence in Southern California

Based on the theory of LURR and its recent development, spatial and temporal variation of Y/Y-c (value of LURR/critical value of LURR) in the Southern California region during the period from 1980 through March, 2001 was studied. According to the previous study on the fault system and stress field in Southern California, we zoned the Southern California region into 11 parts in each of which the stress field is almost uniform. With the time window of one year, time moving step of three months, space window of a circle region with a radius of 100 km and space moving step of 0.25 degree in latitude and longitude direction, the evolution of Y/Y-c were snapshot. The scanning results show that obvious Y/Y-c anomalies occurred before 5/6 of strong earthquakes considered with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater. The critical regions of Y/Y-c are near the epicenters of the strong earthquakes and the Y/Y-c anomalies occur months to years prior to the earthquakes. The tendency of earthquake occurrence in the California region is briefly discussed on the basis of the examination of Y/Y-c.

Spatio-Temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Estimation of Correlation Distance of Soil Properties by Geostatistics

Random field theory has been used to model the spatial average soil properties, whereas the most widely used, geostatistics, on which also based a common basis (covariance function) has been successfully used to model and estimate natural resource since 1960s. Therefore, geostistics should in principle be an efficient way to model soil spatial variability Based on this, the paper presents an alternative approach to estimate the scale of fluctuation or correlation distance of a soil stratum by geostatistics. The procedure includes four steps calculating experimental variogram from measured data, selecting a suited theoretical variogram model, fitting the theoretical one to the experimental variogram, taking the parameters within the theoretical model obtained from optimization into a simple and finite correlation distance 6 relationship to the range a. The paper also gives eight typical expressions between a and b. Finally, a practical example was presented for showing the methodology.

Intrinsic correlation between fragility and bulk modulus in metallic glasses

A systematic study on the available data of 26 metallic glasses shows that there is an intrinsic correlation between fragility of a liquid and bulk modulus of its glass. The underlying physics can be rationalized within the formalism of potential energy landscape thermodynamics. It is surprising to find that the linear correlation between the fragility and the bulk-shear modulus ratio exists strictly at either absolute zero temperature or very high frequency. Further analyses indicate that a real flow event in bulk metallic glasses is shear dominant, and fragility is in inverse proportion to shear-induced bulk dilatation. Finally, extension of these findings to nonmetallic glasses is discussed.

Intrinsic correlation between dilatation and pressure sensitivity of plastic flow in metallic glasses

Taking shear-induced dilatation into consideration in shear transformation zone (STZ) operations, we derive a new yield criterion that reflects the pressure sensitivity in plastic flow in metallic glasses (MGs), which agrees well with experiments. Furthermore, an intrinsic theoretical correlation between the pressure sensitivity coefficient and the dilatation factor is revealed. It is found that the pressure sensitivity of plastic flow of MGs originates in the dilatation of microscale STZs.

MEASUREMENT OF SOLID SLURRY FLOW VIA CORRELATION OF ELECTROMAGNETIC FLOW METER, ELECTRICAL RESISTANCE TOMOGRAPHY AND MECHANISTIC MODELLING

The study presented here was carried out to obtain the actual solids flow rate by the combination of electrical resistance tomography and electromagnetic flow meter. A new in-situ measurement method based on measurements of the Electromagnetic Flow Meters (EFM) and Electrical Resistance Tomography (ERT) to study the flow rates of individual phases in a vertical flow was proposed. The study was based on laboratory experiments that were carried out with a 50 mm vertical flow rig for a number of sand concentrations and different mixture velocities. A range of sand slurries with median particle size from 212 mu m to 355 mu m was tested. The solid concentration by volume covered was 5% and 15%, and the corresponding density of 5% was 1078 kg/m(3) and of 15% was 1238 kg/m(3). The flow velocity was between 1.5 m/s and 3.0 m/s. A total of 6 experimental tests were conducted. The equivalent liquid model was adopted to validate in-situ volumetric solids fraction and calculate the slip velocity. The results show that the ERT technique can be used in conjunction with an electromagnetic flow meter as a way of measurement of slurry flow rate in a vertical pipe flow. However it should be emphasized that the EFM results must be treated with reservation when the flow pattern at the EFM mounting position is a non-homogenous flow. The flow rate obtained by the EFM should be corrected considering the slip velocity and the flow pattern.