Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Spatio-Temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.

Anti Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) Agents 4. Discovery of 5,5 '-(p-Phenylenebisazo)-8-hydroxyquinoline Sulfonates as New HIV-1 Inhibitors in Vitro

To search for compounds with superior anti-human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) activity, ten 5,5'-(p-phenylenebisazo)-8-hydroxyquinoline sulfonates (4a-j) were synthesized and preliminarily evaluated as HIV-1 inhibitors in vitro for the first time. Some compounds demonstrated anti-HIV-1 activity, especially 5,5'-(p-phenylenebisazo)-8-hydroxyquinoline p-ethylbenzenesulfonate (4g) and 5,5'-(p-phenylenebisazo)-8-hydroxyquinoline p-chlorobenzenesulfonate (41) showed the more potent anti-HIV-1 activity with 50% effective concentration (EC50) values of 2.59 and 4.01 mu g/ml, and therapeutic index (TI) values of 31.77 and 24.51, respectively.

The new exploration for proton-implanted silicon: the conversion of a surface-region-purification-induced p-n junction into a p-i-n electrical structure approaching silicon on insulator

A surface-region-purification-induced p-n junction, a puzzle discovered at Brookhaven National Laboratory, in a silicon-on-defect-layer (SODL) material has been explored by carrying out various annealing conditions and subsequent measurements on electrical properties. The origin of the pn junction has been experimentally investigated. Furthermore, the p-n junction has been transformed into a p-i-n electrical structure by adding a high temperature annealing process to the previously used SODL procedure, making the SODL material approach silicon on insulator (SOI). The control of the initial oxygen amount in the silicon material is suggested to be critical for the experimental results.

Validating MODIS-derived land surface evapotranspiration with in situ measurements at two AmeriFlux sites in a semiarid region

Reducing uncertainties in the estimation of land surface evapotranspiration (ET) from remote-sensing data is essential to better understand earth-atmosphere interactions. This paper demonstrates the applicability of temperature-vegetation index triangle (T-s-VI) method in estimating regional ET and evaporative fraction (EF, defined as the ratio of latent heat flux to surface available energy) from MODIS/Terra and MODIS/Aqua products in a semiarid region. We have compared the satellite-based estimates of ET and EF with eddy covariance measurements made over 4 years at two semiarid grassland sites: Audubon Ranch (AR) and Kendall Grassland (KG). The lack of closure in the eddy covariance measured surface energy components is shown to be more serious at MODIS/Aqua overpass time than that at MODIS/Terra overpass time for both AR and KG sites. The T-s-VI-derived EF could reproduce in situ EF reasonably well with BIAS and root-mean-square difference (RMSD) of less than 0.07 and 0.13, respectively. Surface net radiation has been shown to be systematically overestimated by as large as about 60 W/m(2). Satisfactory validation results of the T-s-VI-derived sensible and latent heat fluxes have been obtained with RMSD within 54 W/m(2). The simplicity and yet easy use of the T-s-VI triangle method show a great potential in estimating regional ET with highly acceptable accuracy that is of critical significance in better understanding water and energy budgets on the Earth. Nevertheless, more validation work should be carried out over various climatic regions and under other different land use/land cover conditions in the future.

Effect of annual weeds on the growth of perennial grass mixtures in the alpine region of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

In the alpine region of the Tibetan Plateau, five perennial grass cultivars, Bromus inermis (B), Elymus nutans (E), Clinelymus nutans (C), Agropyron cristatum (A), and Poa crymophila (P) were combined into nine communities with different compositions and ratios, B+C, E+A, B+E+A, E+B+C,C+E+A,B+E+C+A,B+C+A+P,B+E+A+P and E+C+A+P. Each combination was sown in six 10 X 10 m plots with three hand-weeded plots and three natural-growing plots in a completely randomised design in 1998. A field experiment studied the performance of these perennial grass combinations under the competitive interference of annual weeds in 3 consecutive years from 1998 to 2000. The results showed that annual weeds occupied more space and suppressed the growth of the grasses due to earlier germination and quicker growth in the establishment year, but this pattern changed in the second and third years. Leaf area indexes (LAIs) of grasses were greatly decreased by the competitive interference of weeds, and the negative effect of weeds on LAIs of grasses declined and stabilised in the second and third years. E+B+C, B+E+C+A, and B+E+A+P possessed relatively higher LAIs (P < 0.05) among all grass combinations and their LAIs were close to five when the competitive interference of weeds was removed. Grasses were competitively inferior to weeds in the establishment year, although their competitive ability (aggressivities) increased throughout the growing season. In the second and third years, grasses were competitively superior to weeds, and their competitive ability decreased from May until August and increased in September. Dry matter (DM) yields of grasses were reduced by 29.8-74.1% in the establishment year, 11.0-64.9% in the second year, and 16.0-55.8% in the third year by the competitive interference of weeds. B+E+C+A and B+E+A+P can produce around 14 t/ha of DM yields, significantly higher (P < 0.05) than the production of the other grass combinations in the second and third years after the competitive interference of weeds was removed. It was preliminarily concluded that removal of competitive interference of weeds increased the LAIs of all grass swards and improved the light interception of grasses, thus promoting the production of perennial grass pastures. The germination stage of the grasses in the establishment year was the critical period for weeding and suppression of weeds should occur at an early stage of plant growth. The grass combinations of B+E+C+A and B+E+A+P were productive and can be extensively established in the alpine regions of the Tibetan Plateau. Two or three growing seasons will be needed before determining success of establishment of grass mixtures under the alpine conditions of the Tibetan Plateau.